As Sudan’s brutal civil war rages on, allegations of foreign interference and targeted violence grow. A Reuters investigation revealed that 86 cargo flights from the UAE landed at the remote Amdjarass airstrip in Chad since April 2023, with many linked to carriers accused of ferrying arms to factions in Libya. Satellite imagery and video footage reportedly show crates labeled with the UAE flag, prompting speculation that the airstrip is being used to supply Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The UAE, while denying the allegations, maintains that its shipments are purely humanitarian. However, a January 2024 U.N. report cited “credible” claims linking these flights to military supply chains for the RSF. If substantiated, these actions would deepen Sudan’s crisis, fueling violence that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions.

Meanwhile, the RSF has come under intense scrutiny for its brutal targeting of civilians and journalists. On December 8, RSF soldiers killed journalist Hanan Adam, a correspondent for al-Midan and a Sudanese Ministry of Culture employee, alongside her brother, Youssef Adam, in al-Gezira state. Advocacy groups, including the Sudanese Journalists’ Union and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), have condemned the attack, calling for an independent investigation.

Adam’s murder marks the fifth journalist killed by the RSF since the war began in April 2023. The CPJ noted that the RSF has yet to respond to inquiries about the killings, exacerbating fears of escalating threats against press freedom in Sudan.

These intertwined developments illustrate the devastating toll of Sudan’s ongoing conflict, with international involvement and human rights violations driving the country deeper into chaos. The calls for transparency and accountability grow louder, as the international community continues to grapple with how to address Sudan’s destabilization effectively.

Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Silicon Valley’s Pivot Toward Trump Sparks New Alliances

Amazon’s $1 million pledge to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration signals a dramatic shift in its approach to political engagement. Historically critical of Trump, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos now joins a growing number of tech leaders fostering relationships with the incoming administration.

The donation, split between cash and in-kind streaming services on Amazon Video, comes amidst a broader thaw in relations. Bezos, who previously sparred with Trump over The Washington Post and antitrust concerns, has recently softened his stance. His public praise for Trump’s resilience during a summer assassination attempt and his decision to refrain from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have fueled speculation of a calculated rapprochement.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has followed a similar path. Once banning Trump from its platforms, Meta recently donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, with Zuckerberg engaging in private discussions at Mar-a-Lago. Both tech magnates face accusations of seeking favor with the president-elect, as their companies navigate antitrust scrutiny and political pressures.

This pivot reflects Silicon Valley’s pragmatic response to Trump’s rising influence, potentially reshaping tech-political dynamics for years to come. However, the public backlash, including staff resignations and canceled subscriptions at The Washington Post, underscores the contentiousness of these alliances.

Germany’s political landscape is on the brink of a dramatic shift as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government approaches its breaking point. On Monday, the Bundestag is expected to deliver a vote of no confidence in Scholz, a procedural move that will pave the way for early elections on February 23. This carefully orchestrated unraveling highlights the meticulous, stability-focused design of Germany’s postwar political framework, even amid government turmoil.

The Fall of Scholz’s Coalition

The three-party coalition led by Scholz—comprising the center-left SPD, the Greens, and the fiscally conservative FDP—has struggled to reconcile divergent ideologies. Fractured by disputes over public spending and investment priorities, the alliance finally crumbled in November, leaving Scholz with no parliamentary majority.

The chancellor’s expected loss in Monday’s vote will trigger a formal request to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag. Scholz will remain a “lame-duck” leader until elections, with limited ability to influence domestic or foreign policy.

What Lies Ahead: A CDU-Led Government?

Polls show the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian partner, the Christian Social Union (CSU), leading with 32% support. Their leader, Friedrich Merz, is poised to replace Scholz, provided he secures coalition support. The Greens and SPD are likely contenders for the junior partner role, though rising forces like the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the newly formed populist-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) could complicate coalition dynamics.

Merz’s CDU is considered more hawkish on foreign policy, particularly regarding support for Ukraine. His leadership could mark a departure from Scholz’s cautious approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with potential ramifications for European stability.

The AfD Factor

The far-right AfD continues to shake up German politics, polling in second place nationally. Tactical voting maneuvers by the party during Monday’s confidence vote could delay—but not derail—the snap elections. Despite their disruptive tendencies, the AfD’s interest in an early election aligns with their aim to secure a more dominant role in German politics.

Germany’s slow-burning government collapse underscores the resilience of its political system, but it also signals rising polarization and uncertainty. As the country gears up for early elections, the outcome could reshape its domestic and foreign policy priorities, particularly with the potential ascent of a more assertive CDU-led government. Whether this will stabilize or destabilize Germany’s role in Europe remains to be seen.

This developing story highlights the interplay between stability and unpredictability in German politics, setting the stage for a transformative electoral battle.

Strategic town’s fall deepens federal-regional tensions in Somalia

Jubbaland forces delivered a significant blow to Somalia’s Federal Government by seizing the strategic border town of Raskambooni, following a swift and decisive operation on Thursday. The battle saw over 40 elite Gorgor unit troops reportedly surrender, compounding Mogadishu’s loss and highlighting growing fractures between federal and regional authorities.

Raaskambooni’s capture is not just a tactical win for Jubaland; it exposes the deepening power struggle between Somalia’s central government and its semi-autonomous regions. Located at Somalia’s southernmost edge near the Indian Ocean, Raaskambooni is a critical hub for trade routes and smuggling pathways straddling the Somali-Kenyan border. Control of this town provides strategic leverage in both regional security and economic networks.

Jubbaland officials released photographs allegedly showing Somali National Army (SNA) troops retreating across the border into Kenya, a claim that, if true, underscores the precariousness of federal authority. Mogadishu has yet to officially respond, but the incident is a stark reminder of the federal government’s inability to assert control over contested territories, particularly in Jubbaland, whose leadership remains at odds with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Escalating Federal-Jubbaland Rivalry

Relations between Mogadishu and Jubaland have remained tense since Ahmed Madobe’s re-election as Jubbaland’s president in 2024—a victory Mogadishu refused to recognize. Accusations of political interference, resource withholding, and resistance to federal reforms aimed at a universal suffrage electoral system have further fueled discord.

Jubbaland’s reliance on Kenyan support has also strained federal-regional ties, with Mogadishu accusing Nairobi of enabling Jubaland’s autonomy. Kenya, for its part, has a vested interest in the region’s stability, given its shared border and security concerns over Al-Shabaab’s lingering presence.

Regional and International Reactions

The loss of Raaskambooni is likely to shift regional dynamics, with Jubaland now better positioned to exert influence. However, international observers, including the United Kingdom, have called for restraint. UK Ambassador Mike Nithavrianakis underscored the need for dialogue, emphasizing that Somalia’s fragile progress toward stability requires inclusive negotiations.

Meanwhile, the fall of Raaskambooni also raises questions about Mogadishu’s military strategy. The reported surrender of highly trained Gorgor troops—backed by Turkey—represents a significant operational failure and may embolden other semi-autonomous regions to challenge federal authority.

Jubaland Minister Abdifatah Mukhtar hailed the operation as a victory, yet it underscores a broader, unsettling trend: Somalia’s federal system remains under siege, and the road to national unity appears increasingly fraught.

Preparing for rising threats from the China-Iran-Russia-North Korea axis ahead of Trump’s return to the White House

President Joe Biden has approved a classified national security memorandum designed to guide the incoming Trump administration as it navigates intensifying global challenges from an emerging coalition of adversaries: China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The document is a preemptive effort to ensure continuity and effectiveness in U.S. national security policy during the transition of power, underscoring how cooperation between these adversarial nations has deepened since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The memo, which remains classified, reportedly outlines four main areas of focus: fostering interagency collaboration, improving intelligence sharing with allies, recalibrating sanctions for optimal impact, and preparing for concurrent crises involving these nations. While the Biden administration emphasized the memo’s utility as a “road map” rather than a policy constraint, its significance lies in the acknowledgment of unprecedented challenges posed by the strengthening ties among America’s key adversaries.

The Axis of Adversaries: Cooperation Intensifies

The memo highlights troubling developments in the strategic partnerships among these nations:

• Russia and Iran: Isolated by Western sanctions, Russia has leaned heavily on Iran for military supplies like drones and missiles. In return, Russia has advanced Tehran’s missile defense and space capabilities.
• North Korea and Russia: Pyongyang has provided artillery and missiles to Moscow and even sent troops to aid in its conflict with Ukraine, receiving fuel and funding in exchange. Russia’s acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power marks a significant escalation in the region.
• China and Russia: Beijing has supported Russia’s military-industrial complex with dual-use technology and has partnered on joint Arctic patrols, showcasing their shared global ambitions.

This coordination among adversaries underscores their efforts to counterbalance U.S. influence while benefiting from each other’s strengths in military and economic domains.

The Stakes for the Trump Administration

Although the Biden and Trump administrations differ sharply in their foreign policy approaches, this transition is marked by bipartisan recognition of the need to address the evolving threats. Trump’s administration will face the formidable challenge of managing simultaneous crises and recalibrating U.S. responses to adversarial provocations, particularly given the rising global influence of these nations’ partnerships.

While the memo does not dictate policy, it provides a critical framework for addressing these threats, illustrating the growing necessity for bipartisan unity in safeguarding U.S. interests amid an increasingly volatile global landscape.

With ATMIS transitioning out and AUSSOM stepping in, fears of an Al-Shabaab resurgence grow.

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to conclude its 17-year presence by December, signaling a new era in Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab. However, this transition to the smaller African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) comes with heightened fears that Al-Shabaab could exploit the gap left behind.

ATMIS, once lauded for its counterinsurgency gains, struggled to fully stabilize Somalia. Deep clan divisions, systemic political weaknesses, and Al-Shabaab‘s resilient shadow governance limited its success. While ATMIS made strides in securing key territories, the insurgents adapted, maintaining taxation systems and recruitment networks that enable them to operate as a shadow state.

The Somali National Army (SNA), which is supposed to take over security duties, remains fragmented along clan loyalties. Despite international training efforts, including elite units like Danab and Gorgor, Somalia’s forces remain heavily reliant on external funding. This fractured state leaves AUSSOM’s incoming 11,900 troops with an uphill battle, particularly as Al-Shabaab is expected to intensify its efforts to reclaim urban strongholds.

The new mission will also face political hurdles. Disputes between Somalia’s Federal Government and its member states, compounded by regional tensions involving Ethiopia and Egypt, hinder unified efforts against Al-Shabaab. Moreover, the inclusion of Egyptian troops under Somalia’s defence pact adds to uncertainties given Egypt’s inconsistent counterinsurgency track record.

The situation draws grim comparisons to post-withdrawal Afghanistan and Iraq, where insurgent groups quickly filled power vacuums. Without cohesive reforms and strong international backing, Somalia risks losing ground to Al-Shabaab, particularly in Mogadishu and surrounding areas.

As AUSSOM prepares to step in, Somalia’s future hinges on addressing its political fractures and building self-reliant security forces. Otherwise, the specter of Al-Shabaab’s resurgence may become a dangerous reality.

Taiwan Monitors Intensified Chinese Military Activity Amid Rising Tensions

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated as Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported the detection of 47 Chinese military aircraft operating near the island over the past 24 hours. This activity coincides with the deployment of close to 90 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels near Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands, and the broader East and South China Seas.

China’s maneuvers have been linked to military assets from its northern, eastern, and southern theater commands. While Taiwan remains vigilant, the surge in naval and aerial presence has raised concerns about Beijing’s intentions. The developments come after China reserved airspace near Taiwan and escalated its military presence in strategic waters, moves likely intended to exert pressure on Taiwan and its allies.

Beijing’s assertive military posturing reflects its long-standing claims over Taiwan, a self-governed democracy that China views as a breakaway province. Meanwhile, Taiwan has increased its alert levels, maintaining readiness against potential escalations.

This show of force aligns with China’s broader regional ambitions, particularly in disputed maritime territories like the South China Sea. Analysts believe the recent activities are aimed at testing Taiwan’s defenses, projecting power to neighboring countries like Japan, and deterring U.S. influence in the region.

While Taiwan continues to monitor the situation, the international community, particularly the U.S. and its allies, is closely watching for signs of further escalation. The heightened activity underlines the fragility of the status quo in one of the most strategically sensitive regions globally.

Political instability in Mozambique forces Eswatini to reroute sugar exports, straining regional trade logistics.

Political turmoil in Mozambique has caused significant disruptions to Eswatini’s sugar exports, a key pillar of the landlocked nation’s economy. Protests led by opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane—who alleges electoral fraud—have spiraled into violence, leaving over 100 dead and blocking major transport routes. These events have forced Eswatini to divert its sugar shipments from Mozambique’s Maputo port to Durban, South Africa, escalating costs and causing logistical delays.

The Eswatini Sugar Association (ESA) has voiced serious concerns over these disruptions. Nontobeko Mabuza of the ESA explained that relying on Durban port would not only inflate costs but also strain South Africa’s transport infrastructure and increase shipment turnaround times. The implications are particularly dire for Eswatini, which exported $305 million worth of sugar in 2023 under trade agreements such as the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act.

Traffic congestion at Eswatini’s borders has worsened, compounded by closures at Mozambique’s Lebombo border post. Bhekizwe Maziya, head of Eswatini’s national agriculture marketing board, noted that rerouting trade routes has delayed shipments and disrupted import-export schedules.

Mozambique’s instability is also threatening broader regional economies. Neighboring countries reliant on the Maputo corridor must now reassess their dependency on Mozambique for trade. Political activist Solomon Mondlane warned that Mozambique’s unrest could have ripple effects across southern Africa, urging governments to explore alternative trade routes.

Analysts like Sibusiso Nhlabatsi argue that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) must step up its conflict management efforts to address the crisis and hold member states accountable for regional instability. The unrest highlights the need for a robust framework to prevent disruptions in regional trade flows, which are crucial for the economies of smaller nations like Eswatini.

As the situation in Mozambique continues to escalate, the pressure on Eswatini and its neighboring economies grows, posing a significant test to regional cooperation and resilience.