Iranians vote under strict candidate controls and amidst regional conflicts
Iranians commenced voting on Friday to elect a new president following the untimely death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The election is marked by a tightly controlled selection of four candidates, all loyal to the supreme leader, amidst escalating regional tensions and growing public frustration.
Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (0430 GMT) and are scheduled to close at 6 p.m. (1430 GMT), although extensions until midnight are customary. The election occurs against the backdrop of rising tensions due to conflicts involving Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with heightened Western scrutiny over Iran’s advancing nuclear program.
While the election is unlikely to result in significant policy shifts for the Islamic Republic, it could have implications for the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old supreme leader who has held power since 1989. Khamenei urged for a high voter turnout to counter a legitimacy crisis exacerbated by economic hardships and restrictions on political and social freedoms.
“The durability, strength, dignity, and reputation of the Islamic Republic depend on the presence of people,” Khamenei stated on state television after casting his vote. “High turnout is a definite necessity.”
Voter turnout has significantly declined over the past four years, with a predominantly youthful population growing increasingly discontented with political and social constraints. Manual counting of ballots means the final results are expected to be announced within two days, although initial figures may be released sooner. If no candidate secures at least 50% plus one vote, including blank ballots, a run-off between the top two candidates will occur on the first Friday after the initial result declaration.
Among the four candidates, three are hardliners, and one is a low-profile moderate, supported by the reformist faction which has been marginalized in recent years. Critics argue that the low and declining turnout reflects the system’s eroded legitimacy. Only 48% of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, with turnout hitting a record low of 41% in the recent parliamentary election.
Although the next president is not expected to significantly alter Iran’s nuclear program or its support for militia groups across the Middle East—since such top state matters are under Khamenei’s control—the president manages day-to-day government operations and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policies.
A hardline watchdog body, consisting of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei, vets candidates. From an initial pool of 80, only six were approved, with two hardline candidates later dropping out.
The remaining hardliners include Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who served in Khamenei’s office. The sole moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, remains committed to theocratic rule but advocates for detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization, and political pluralism.
Pezeshkian’s chances depend on reigniting the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely abstained from voting in recent years due to disillusionment with previous pragmatist presidents who failed to bring about significant change. He may also benefit from the hardliners’ inability to unify their vote.
All candidates have pledged to revive the struggling economy, which is afflicted by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions reimposed since the U.S. withdrew from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with six world powers.
In recent weeks, Iranians have widely used the hashtag #ElectionCircus on social media platform X, with some activists, both domestic and international, calling for an election boycott, arguing that high turnout would legitimize the Islamic Republic.
As Iran’s tightly controlled presidential election unfolds, the outcome may not herald significant policy changes but will play a crucial role in shaping the country’s political landscape and the potential succession of its supreme leader. The economic and regional challenges facing Iran continue to influence voter sentiment and the overall legitimacy of the electoral process.
