Regime change? Not so fast. U.S. intelligence says Iran’s government is still firmly in control.
Despite Intensifying U.S.–Israeli Strikes, Intelligence Assessments Say Tehran Retains Control.
U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran’s government is not at imminent risk of collapse, even as American and Israeli forces continue their military offensive, according to a Reuters report citing multiple sources familiar with classified assessments.
One source described a “multitude” of intelligence reports showing “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger,” adding that Tehran continues to retain control over the Iranian public. Officials cautioned, however, that the situation remains fluid and internal dynamics could shift.
The findings contrast with public calls from President Donald Trump urging Iranians to reclaim their country following the initial strikes on Feb. 28, which killed former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several relatives of his son and successor.
A senior Israeli official similarly told Reuters there is no certainty the conflict will bring about regime collapse.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has taken a defiant stance. In remarks broadcast on state media Thursday, he announced the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil and gasoline exports transit — until the military campaign ends.
“The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. American bases in the Middle East must be closed,” the statement said, adding that Iran’s regional and military capabilities would be activated if necessary.
The shutdown has intensified pressure on global energy markets. Shipping monitors report roughly 240 vessels waiting to pass through the strait, with only limited traffic moving in recent days. Attacks on commercial ships have sparked fires and left crew members missing.
In the United States, the average price of gasoline climbed to $3.60 per gallon as of Thursday night, according to AAA. A spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that oil could rise to $200 per barrel if the conflict persists and Hormuz remains blocked.
While battlefield operations continue to escalate, intelligence assessments suggest that military pressure alone has not yet translated into political destabilization inside Iran. For now, the regime appears to be absorbing the strikes — and maintaining its grip on power — even as the economic and regional consequences of the war ripple outward.
