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Mekelle Airport Retaken—but Ethiopia’s War Is Far From Decided

Ethiopia Retakes Mekelle Airport as Tigray War Enters Dangerous New Phase

Ethiopian federal forces have reportedly recaptured Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, reversing one of the Tigrayan alliance’s most visible gains since fighting resumed in late September. The military value is considerable. The airport can support reinforcements, surveillance, logistics and the political claim that federal authority is returning to Tigray’s capital.

But control of an airport should not be confused with control of the war.

A tactical victory, not a settlement

Sources told Reuters that government forces retook the airport while surrounding Mekelle. Gunfire was reported near the city centre, some Tigrayan fighters apparently abandoned positions, and reports of looting emerged. These conditions suggest an unstable transition rather than a clean federal victory.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front and its allies initially seized the airport on September 23. Losing it constrains their operations, but they retain fighters, local networks and the ability to wage a dispersed insurgency.

Ethiopia’s previous war demonstrated that cities and transport infrastructure can change hands without resolving the underlying conflict.

The danger extends beyond Tigray

The fighting is intertwined with Ethiopia’s deteriorating relations with Eritrea and its accusations—denied by the governments concerned—that Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan are supporting its opponents.

For Somaliland, the immediate concern is economic. Ethiopia is the potential market that could transform Berbera from an important national port into a major regional gateway. Prolonged war could weaken Ethiopian demand, disrupt trucking, increase insurance costs and divert public investment from trade infrastructure to military operations.

WARYATV Assessment

Recapturing Mekelle’s airport gives Addis Ababa a tactical advantage and an important political image. It does not repair the failed peace arrangements or guarantee that federal forces can stabilize the territory around Mekelle.

Somaliland should prepare for two contradictory outcomes: Ethiopia may seek diversified access through Berbera more urgently, while simultaneously becoming less capable of financing and protecting the trade required to make that corridor viable.

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