The Fuel-Security Risk Facing the Horn of Africa
What Hormuz Disruption Means for Somaliland and Berbera
The prospect of a US–Iran de-escalation has eased fears of renewed large-scale attacks, but the economic risks facing the Horn of Africa remain. The US naval blockade continues, negotiations are unresolved and commercial shipping still faces uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
For Somaliland, the crisis exposes a structural vulnerability: dependence on imported petroleum and limited publicly documented fuel-storage capacity. Berbera could become part of the solution, but only if its strategic location is supported by investment, infrastructure and effective planning.
Hormuz remains a global pressure point
The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of internationally traded oil and liquefied natural gas. Disruption affects energy prices, shipping insurance and transport costs far beyond the Gulf.
There are signs of recovery. Reuters reported that 31 laden LNG tankers exited Hormuz in October, up from 23 in September. However, Qatar’s transit activity remained below pre-war levels, indicating that commercial traffic has not fully returned to normal.
Even if major military operations remain suspended, continued uncertainty could keep fuel-import costs elevated.
Berbera’s strategic vulnerability
Somaliland’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals says the territory imports all its refined petroleum products. Its 2023–2027 strategic plan records a Berbera fuel depot with a capacity of 20,000 metric tonnes, alongside LPG storage of 1,200 tonnes. The ministry also identifies limited storage capacity as a sector challenge.
These are published infrastructure figures, not proof of current fuel inventories or how many days of national consumption can be covered.
A prolonged shipping disruption could raise the cost of electricity, transport, food distribution and essential public services. The government therefore needs reliable information about national fuel stocks, consumption and incoming shipments.
Ethiopia creates an opportunity
Ethiopia faces similar exposure. An IMF assessment identifies its dependence on a narrow group of fuel suppliers, logistical constraints and vulnerability to Red Sea disruptions.
Berbera could strengthen its role as an alternative commercial gateway, particularly for eastern Ethiopia. But becoming a petroleum transit hub requires specialised storage, terminal infrastructure, safety systems, transport agreements and clear regulation. Port expansion alone will not deliver energy security.
Strategic assessment
Trump’s declaration that the war is militarily “effectively over” does not mean the energy-security risks have disappeared. The blockade, unresolved negotiations and uncertain shipping environment continue to expose import-dependent economies.
For Somaliland, the lesson is clear: Berbera’s location is a strategic advantage, but geography cannot substitute for fuel reserves, supplier diversity and effective institutions.
The real question is whether Somaliland can turn Berbera into a functioning energy-security gateway — one that protects its economy from external shocks rather than passing their costs on to households and businesses.
