Ukraine Hits Hard, Russia Gains More? The War Behind the War Is Taking Shape.
Ukraine is striking Russia’s oil. But global forces may be tilting the balance the other way.
KYIV — Ukraine has stepped up long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, targeting export hubs and refineries, even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns that the broader geopolitical environment is increasingly working in Moscow’s favor.
Overnight attacks hit the Sheskharis oil terminal at Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea export point, with video footage showing a large fire at the site. Additional strikes were reported at facilities in Leningrad and Nizhny Novgorod regions, including infrastructure tied to Lukoil operations.
The Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine has intensified its focus on oil export infrastructure in recent weeks, targeting nodes critical to Russia’s ability to sustain revenue flows.
Russian authorities said air defenses intercepted 148 Ukrainian drones in a short time span and confirmed damage in several regions, including casualties in Belgorod and structural damage in Novorossiysk. Military-linked commentators in Russia acknowledged that the strikes are creating mounting repair challenges, noting that sanctions are complicating access to equipment and slowing recovery timelines.
At the same time, Russian forces continued strikes on Ukrainian cities. In Odesa, an attack killed three civilians, including a child, while additional strikes targeted infrastructure across multiple regions. Power outages were reported in both Ukrainian-held and Russian-occupied areas, underscoring the increasingly reciprocal nature of infrastructure warfare.
Zelenskyy, speaking during a visit to Istanbul as part of a Middle East tour, said the war involving Iran is reshaping the strategic context in ways that benefit Russia. Rising oil prices linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing Moscow’s energy revenues, offsetting some of the economic pressure created by Ukrainian strikes. He also pointed to shifting U.S. priorities, warning that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could reduce Western support for Ukraine, particularly in air defense systems.
Ukraine is attempting to adapt by expanding its external partnerships. Officials have offered drone and maritime security capabilities to Gulf countries facing Iranian threats, while seeking additional defensive support in return.
Kyiv has also positioned itself as a potential contributor to safeguarding global shipping routes, drawing on its experience maintaining maritime corridors in the Black Sea.
The dynamic highlights a growing contradiction. Ukraine is increasing pressure on Russia’s energy sector with more precise and frequent strikes, yet external market forces are reinforcing the very revenue streams those operations are designed to disrupt.
The result is a conflict shaped not only by battlefield developments but by global economic and strategic currents. Ukraine’s operational reach is expanding, but the broader environment in which it is fighting is becoming more complex and, in some respects, less favorable.
