How Many Days of Essential Fuel Should Somaliland Hold?
Somaliland should aim first for 30 verified days of essential-use fuel, then expand toward 45 days when storage, financing and stock rotation can support it.
Why not copy the 90-day benchmark?
International Energy Agency members are generally required to hold oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. That is a useful strategic benchmark, but it was built for wealthier states with mature storage, finance and emergency-release systems. Copying it immediately could lock scarce public money into fuel that degrades, leaks or cannot be distributed.
Somaliland’s target should measure essential demand, not all normal consumption. Hospitals, water supply, emergency communications, critical power, food logistics and public safety require continuity even when private consumption is rationed.
Build the reserve in layers
A practical first phase would combine roughly 15 days of compulsory, rotating commercial stock with 15 days of publicly owned or contractually controlled emergency stock. A later phase could add another 15 days. Product composition should reflect an audited emergency-demand plan, likely emphasizing diesel while including petrol, LPG and aviation or kerosene needs where essential.
Stocks should be divided across more than one secure location. The government must know whether volumes are physically present, unencumbered, within quality specifications and deliverable by functioning pumps and trucks.
WARYATV Assessment
The real policy question is not “How large are Somaliland’s tanks?” It is “How many days can priority services operate if imports stop tonight?” Hargeisa should commission an independent baseline audit before announcing a target. It should then publish aggregate days of cover by product, while withholding tank-level security details.
Sources: IEA—Oil Stocks of IEA Countries | IMF—Energy Subsidies and pricing | National Oil Company Berbera—capacity claim requiring verification
