Amid EU skepticism and fiery rhetoric, Milanović heads for a likely runoff against pro-European rival Dragan Primorac.
As Croatia’s “super election year” concludes, Zoran Milanović, the country’s controversial president, is poised to secure reelection. Known for his fiery populism and Euroskeptic stance, Milanović leads polls with 39% heading into the December 29 presidential election. While his victory in the first round is unlikely to reach the required majority, a runoff against Dragan Primorac, the candidate of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (HDZ), is expected on January 12.
The animosity between Milanović and Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has defined the campaign. Milanović, a former prime minister and member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has used sharp rhetoric to position himself as a nationalist critic of the EU and NATO. He has derided Plenković as a “dictator” and accused him of being subservient to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Milanović has also criticized Western sanctions on Russia and blocked Croatia’s participation in NATO missions supporting Ukraine, aligning himself with more isolationist and anti-European policies.
Plenković and his party have framed the election as a choice between aligning with the West or drifting toward Eastern influence. He has championed pro-European policies and military support for Ukraine, presenting his party’s candidate, Dragan Primorac, as the alternative to Milanović. However, Primorac, polling at 24%, has struggled to gain traction. Observers cite his lack of charisma and his association with scandals plaguing Plenković’s administration, including the resignation or dismissal of 31 HDZ ministers this year due to corruption allegations.
The HDZ’s latest scandal involving Health Minister Vili Beroš, arrested in November on corruption charges, has further undermined Primorac’s campaign. Public skepticism about the HDZ’s integrity continues to overshadow its platform, giving Milanović an edge despite his polarizing rhetoric.
Milanović’s popularity stems from his ability to capitalize on public discontent over corruption, immigration, and economic challenges, presenting himself as a nationalist defender against perceived EU overreach. His sharp critique of HDZ’s handling of these issues resonates with a significant portion of voters, despite—or perhaps because of—his combative style.
If the election proceeds to a runoff, Milanović’s populist appeal and the HDZ’s tarnished reputation make him the clear favorite. However, his reelection would solidify Croatia’s divided political landscape, with a nationalist president and a pro-European prime minister locked in ongoing rivalry.
As Croatia navigates its future within the EU, the outcome of this election will shape its domestic and international policies, particularly in relation to Ukraine, regional cooperation, and relations with Brussels. Milanović’s reelection could signal a continued shift toward nationalist populism, while a surprise victory for Primorac would reaffirm Croatia’s commitment to European integration.
