Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s Ascension as Prime Minister Faces Scrutiny and Challenges
Thailand’s political landscape has shifted once again with the ascension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the country’s 31st prime minister. The 37-year-old, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was appointed following the Constitutional Court’s removal of her predecessor, real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin. Despite her limited political experience and lack of direct electoral mandate, Paetongtarn’s rise has reignited debates about the enduring influence of the Shinawatra dynasty.
Paetongtarn’s promotion comes at a time of intense scrutiny and turbulence. Her father, Thaksin, who returned to Thailand from a 15-year exile in August 2023, remains a formidable figure behind the scenes. His return was part of a broader strategy to navigate Thailand’s political crisis, which has seen repeated interventions by the judiciary to reshape the political landscape.
“Thaksin is still very much actively involved behind the scenes,” notes Verapat Pariyawong, a Thai law and politics expert at the University of London SOAS. “His daughter is about to take on one of the toughest jobs that he knows all too well.”
The Shinawatra family has been central to Thailand’s political upheaval for over two decades, beginning with Thaksin’s landslide election victory in 2001. Their political fortunes have seen dramatic rises and falls, including coups and legal battles, as they have clashed with the royalist elite and conservative factions.
The Pheu Thai party, founded by Thaksin, has historically been seen as a populist champion for the poor. However, recent elections have shifted the spotlight to the pro-democracy Move Forward Party (MFP), which emerged victorious in 2023. The MFP’s dissolution just before Srettha’s removal highlighted the influence of Thailand’s “parallel powers”—a network of conservative and royalist entities that continue to shape the country’s political future.
With the MFP rebranding as the People’s Party and focusing on the 2027 elections, Paetongtarn’s immediate challenge is to form a cabinet that balances the interests of her coalition while navigating the country’s economic difficulties. Her first address as prime minister emphasized her commitment to transforming Thailand into a land of opportunities, but critics argue that the Shinawatra brand may no longer resonate with a populace disillusioned by persistent economic woes and political instability.
Household debt in Thailand is at record levels, and wages remain low. Critics such as Aat Pisanwanich, an international economy expert, argue that Shinawatra’s populist policies have failed to address these issues effectively. “The Shinawatra ‘brand’ is unsellable these days,” Pisanwanich asserts. “Under this government, everything will be the same if not worse.”
The political environment remains precarious, with potential threats from internal political shifts and judicial interventions. Analysts like Sirote Klampaiboon foresee challenging circumstances ahead, including scrutiny of cabinet appointments and potential legal controversies.
Despite these challenges, the Shinawatra dynasty’s resilience is notable. Sirote suggests that even if Paetongtarn encounters significant political setbacks, the family’s influence in Thai politics is unlikely to wane. “Even if something were to happen to Paetongtarn politically, the Shinawatra brand will not just disappear from Thai politics,” he says.
As Thailand’s youngest ever prime minister navigates these turbulent waters, the future of her family’s political legacy and the country’s path forward remain deeply intertwined.
