As Mozambique prepares for its presidential election, all eyes are on Daniel Chapo, the ruling party’s candidate and the presumptive victor. Chapo, a former high school teacher now stepping into the political limelight, faces an immense challenge: securing the country’s vast liquefied natural gas (LNG) fields in northern Cabo Delgado, a region long plagued by Islamist insurgency. Analysts believe his strategy will continue to rely heavily on Rwandan military forces and European financial support to restore stability and revive Mozambique’s ambitions of becoming a major player in the global gas market.
Chapo’s campaign slogan, “Let’s get to work,” encapsulates his mission to kickstart the two massive LNG projects, currently on hold due to insecurity. These projects, backed by energy giants TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, represent an estimated $20 billion in potential investments that could transform Mozambique into a significant gas exporter. However, achieving this goal is not just a matter of economic ambition; it requires a delicate balancing act between military support, political stability, and international cooperation.
The Rwandan Factor: A Crucial Alliance
Since 2021, Rwandan military forces, including special units, have played an essential role in stabilizing the volatile Cabo Delgado region. Current President Felipe Nyusi first brought in the Rwandans after Mozambique’s own troops struggled to contain the insurgents. Their mission: protect strategic areas, including the Afungi site, where TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil plan to build the LNG facilities. According to Tertius Jacobs, lead analyst for Mozambique at the risk consultancy Focus Group, the Rwandan forces are “undeniably competent” and represent Mozambique’s best option to safeguard its vital energy infrastructure.
As a signal of continuity, Nyusi introduced Chapo to Rwandan President Paul Kagame in June, underscoring that the reliance on Kigali’s military assistance will likely persist. The Rwandan forces have already assumed greater responsibilities, particularly after regional troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) withdrew earlier this year.
“Rwanda will remain key,” said Robert Besseling, CEO of Pangea-Risk, a consultancy specializing in African security. “They have thousands of troops there to protect the LNG sites.”
Challenges on the Horizon: Insurgency and Investment Delays
The security situation in Cabo Delgado remains precarious. Earlier this year, suspected Islamist militants ambushed Mozambican soldiers in one of the deadliest attacks since 2021, claiming the lives of more than 20 soldiers and displacing tens of thousands of civilians. Such incidents have disrupted not only the lives of the local population but also Mozambique’s energy aspirations.
TotalEnergies halted its $20 billion project in 2021, citing security concerns, and ExxonMobil has similarly delayed its neighboring venture. Despite these setbacks, there is cautious optimism. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne has suggested that operations could resume if the security situation continues to improve by year’s end. However, funding for these projects remains a concern, with ExxonMobil’s final investment decision expected by late 2025.
European Support and Regional Dynamics
In addition to military aid from Rwanda, Mozambique has also received significant backing from the European Union. The EU has funded efforts to bolster security in Cabo Delgado and is currently mulling further support to help quell the insurgency. A spokesperson for the EU emphasized the importance of this partnership, stating, “The fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado is a common fight.”
Meanwhile, as Rwandan forces take on more responsibility in securing the region, reports have surfaced of potential plans for a new Rwandan military base in Quissanga district. Such a move would not only enhance security in the region but also bolster Mozambique’s efforts to hold secure elections amidst ongoing unrest.
Mozambique’s Future: Energy and Stability
Daniel Chapo’s likely election victory marks the continuation of an era where the strategic alliance between Mozambique and Rwanda will shape the future of the country’s energy sector. For Mozambique, securing its LNG projects is not just a question of economic growth but one of national stability and international relevance. Should Chapo succeed in stabilizing Cabo Delgado and reviving the stalled gas projects, Mozambique could finally realize its ambitions of becoming a key player in the global energy market.
However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. The Islamist insurgency remains a potent threat, and while Rwanda’s military support is invaluable, it is unlikely to be a permanent solution. Long-term peace and stability in Mozambique will require not only military prowess but also sustained international cooperation, regional diplomacy, and a commitment to addressing the underlying grievances that fuel the conflict.
As Mozambique stands on the brink of a new chapter, Chapo’s ability to navigate these complexities will define his presidency—and the country’s future.
