President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House has quickly introduced a fresh level of diplomatic unpredictability to the already volatile landscape of Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian-linked forces. The impact of Trump’s win is likely to be felt immediately, upending current U.S.-led ceasefire initiatives and potentially altering the course of American involvement in the region.
During his first tenure, Trump significantly reshaped U.S.-Israel relations by recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, endorsing the legality of West Bank settlements, and facilitating the Abraham Accords. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 further cemented his administration’s alignment with Israel’s interests, particularly concerning Iran’s regional influence. Now, as a second-term president, Trump is not constrained by the need for reelection and may feel emboldened to pursue more hardline policies, raising questions about his approach to Israel’s military and diplomatic engagements.
Trump’s Approach to Israel’s Conflicts
Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, who pursued ceasefire negotiations, Trump’s inclination appears more supportive of Israel’s military objectives, particularly against Iranian proxies. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s return promises a more favorable stance on Israel’s military actions in Gaza and southern Lebanon, aligning with Netanyahu’s vision of a post-conflict landscape that excludes Palestinian Authority influence and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Trump’s reluctance to condition Israel’s policies on humanitarian concerns in Gaza, such as relief for civilians, could further escalate the intensity of Israel’s operations.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s leadership has responded to the change in U.S. leadership by warning that it will continue to confront Israeli actions until Israel seeks a cessation of hostilities. Trump’s potential approach could support Israeli military actions against Hezbollah without the constraints of diplomatic negotiations, possibly emboldening Netanyahu to intensify military operations along the northern border.
The Lame-Duck Period and Biden’s Diplomatic Leverage
As Biden remains in office until Trump’s January 20 inauguration, the U.S. diplomatic landscape may face a period of deadlock, with adversaries potentially delaying ceasefire negotiations in anticipation of Trump’s policies. For Israel, this transition offers an opportunity to avoid concessions, particularly on the exchange of hostages held by Hamas. Meanwhile, Biden’s administration has few remaining levers to influence Israel’s approach, as shown by Biden’s inability to secure Netanyahu’s agreement for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
The impact of this interim period is also likely to affect broader U.S.-Iranian dynamics. With reports of increased Iranian-backed attacks, the U.S. has recently deployed B-52 bombers to the region, a move widely viewed as a strategic warning. Analysts suggest that if Iranian aggression persists, Biden might consider offensive military measures before Trump assumes office. Such an approach could recalibrate Middle East geopolitics, particularly if the U.S. takes decisive action to prevent Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Trump’s Foreign Policy in a More Hostile Geopolitical Climate
Trump enters the White House at a time of heightened instability, with Israel’s conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon unfolding against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump’s previous achievements in soft power diplomacy, including the Abraham Accords, were forged during peacetime; however, he now faces the unique challenge of navigating the demands of wartime diplomacy, particularly in the context of escalating hostilities involving Iran.
Given Trump’s strong relationship with Netanyahu, his administration may be more willing to support direct Israeli actions against Iran, particularly targeting nuclear facilities. With Republican support in Congress, Trump’s policies could find legislative backing, leading to a potential realignment in U.S. involvement in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran and its proxy networks.
A Shift in U.S. Influence Over Israel’s Policy Decisions
With Trump’s anticipated policies expected to emphasize Israeli security interests, his presidency is likely to reduce diplomatic friction on controversial issues such as Israel’s settlement expansion and judicial reform. Trump’s hands-off approach to humanitarian organizations, like the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), contrasts sharply with Biden’s stance, which included an emphasis on humanitarian aid in Gaza.
For Israel’s regional strategy, Trump’s victory signals a likely shift away from diplomatic compromise, with Netanyahu gaining a freer hand to pursue military objectives. However, as Trump has repeatedly pledged to avoid new military conflicts, questions remain about his willingness to intervene in the Middle East at a time when U.S. involvement could significantly alter the trajectory of Israel’s ongoing wars.
In conclusion, the election of Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving Israel’s conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. While Israel may benefit from Trump’s pro-Israel stance, his policies carry the risk of amplifying hostilities in the region, particularly if Israeli and Iranian tensions continue to escalate. In this complex landscape, the next three months under Biden may prove decisive, setting the tone for a Middle East policy transition that has the potential to reshape U.S. alliances and Israel’s military strategies in the region.
