Egypt and Jordan, two key players in the Middle East, enter 2025 grappling with the fallout from the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Both countries are navigating a complex regional landscape shaped by shifting alliances, security threats, and the need to maintain internal stability amid external pressures. Their trajectories this year will significantly influence the region’s future, as they balance national interests with broader geopolitical dynamics.
Jordan faces a precarious situation, wedged between multiple, often conflicting, regional powers. The fall of Assad’s regime has created both opportunities and challenges. Jordan’s efforts to reconcile with Assad in recent years were partly driven by the need to stabilize its northern border and manage the influx of Syrian refugees, who now number in the hundreds of thousands. The kingdom has borne this burden with relative success, leveraging tribal and clan ties to integrate refugees while maintaining its demographic balance. However, the uncertainty surrounding Syria’s new leadership raises questions about the stability of its northern frontier.
Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq have further complicated Jordan’s security landscape. The deadly attack on U.S. forces in Jordan by Kataib Hezbollah in early 2024 underscores the kingdom’s vulnerability to regional proxy conflicts. Jordan must also contend with the potential use of its territory as a corridor for weapons smuggling, a scenario that threatens both its sovereignty and its relationship with Israel.
Domestically, Jordan’s monarchy must maintain the delicate balance between its tribal base, urban populations, and Palestinian communities. The specter of political unrest looms large, particularly if the Syrian example emboldens dissenting voices within Jordan. The kingdom’s future hinges on its ability to navigate these overlapping challenges while fostering regional alliances, particularly with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia.
Egypt, a historical powerhouse in the Middle East, is similarly navigating a maze of regional complexities. The fall of Assad removes a potential partner in Cairo’s quest for regional stability, leaving Egypt to reassess its approach to Syria’s new government. Cairo’s cautious stance reflects a broader concern about the spillover effects of Syria’s instability, particularly the potential for radicalization and unrest to seep into Egypt’s borders.
The October 7 Hamas-led massacre and its aftermath have further strained Egypt’s regional relationships. While Cairo managed to avoid direct involvement, its proximity to Gaza and the Philadelphi corridor places it at the heart of the conflict’s ripple effects. Egypt’s handling of the situation has raised questions about its role as an honest broker in regional disputes. The apparent alignment of Doha and Ankara with Hamas complicates Egypt’s position, given its historical opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, with which Hamas is affiliated.
Beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Egypt faces challenges from other fronts. The civil war in Sudan threatens to destabilize Egypt’s southern border, while the ongoing chaos in Libya continues to test Cairo’s influence in North Africa. Egypt’s alliances with Greece and other Eastern Mediterranean powers offer some strategic respite, but these partnerships are insufficient to address the broader security challenges posed by its immediate neighbors.
Both Egypt and Jordan are grappling with the fallout of the Arab Spring’s long tail, the rise of Iranian influence, and the resurgence of extremist groups. However, their strategies differ. Jordan’s approach is defined by pragmatism and cautious diplomacy, seeking to balance competing interests without alienating key allies. Egypt, under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has adopted a more assertive stance, leveraging its military and diplomatic clout to project power and influence across the region.
The success of these strategies will depend on each country’s ability to adapt to the rapidly changing regional dynamics. For Jordan, maintaining internal stability and fostering strong ties with Gulf allies will be crucial. For Egypt, managing the fallout from Syria while addressing its internal vulnerabilities will be key to preserving its status as a regional heavyweight.
As 2025 unfolds, the Middle East stands at a crossroads. The actions of Egypt and Jordan will play a critical role in shaping the region’s trajectory, influencing whether this year brings peace and stability or further upheaval. Both nations must navigate their challenges with strategic foresight and diplomatic agility to secure their futures in an increasingly volatile landscape.
