Nearly four years after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin continues to insist that Russia is on the path to victory.

The reality — buried beneath layers of internal deception, failing force structures, and catastrophic miscalculations — tells a very different story.

Russia is losing a war that Putin still imagines he is winning, and the gap between battlefield truth and Kremlin illusion is widening by the day.

A Military Bleeding Beyond Recovery

By October 2025, British intelligence estimated that Russian military casualties — killed and wounded — had surpassed 1.1 million. Kyiv’s own numbers are even higher. Russia has also lost over 11,000 tanks, 23,000 armored vehicles, and 33,000 artillery systems, far exceeding its entire pre-war inventory.

Moscow’s attempt to regenerate combat power now depends on untrained recruits, prison battalions, and coercive mobilization.

Yet Putin continues to celebrate “victories” for marginal advances measured in meters, not miles. Russia’s 2025 casualty rate is the highest of the war.

Why does the Kremlin believe failure is success? Because Russia’s command-and-control system is designed to lie upward. Officers conceal losses to avoid arrest.

Corruption hollows out units. Ammunition, fuel, and salaries are stolen. Putin’s tightly centralized decision-making — built on intimidation rather than information — ensures that the military commander-in-chief is the last person to know the truth.

The Invasion That Was Built to Fail

The roots of Russia’s defeat go back to February 2022. The invasion violated every principle of modern warfare: no force concentration, no intelligence coordination, no logistical preparation, and no fallback plan.

Russia needed a 3:1 force advantage to overwhelm Ukraine. Instead it attacked with a force smaller than Ukraine’s active-duty military and divided it across six axes of advance.

The chaotic assault from Belarus toward Kyiv — Russia’s best chance for a quick victory — collapsed in a matter of weeks under Ukrainian resistance, poor logistics, and failed assumptions.

Russia’s elite airborne troops at Hostomel Airport were surrounded, pinned down, and ultimately forced into retreat.

By April 2022, the Kremlin suffered one of the most humiliating reversals in its modern military history: a full withdrawal from Kyiv Oblast.

Ukraine’s Slow Turn into a War Machine

While Russia bleeds, Ukraine has quietly transformed into a serious defense-production state. Ukrainian drone manufacturers — now numbering hundreds — have outpaced Russian innovation, forcing Moscow to adapt with crude, high-casualty infantry tactics.

Ukraine now produces more artillery shells than all of NATO combined. Domestic armored vehicle output has surged, while the locally produced Bohdana howitzer outperforms many Western systems in cost and production time.

Drone warfare has changed the character of the conflict, making Russian assaults — often launched with barely trained infantry in civilian vehicles — shockingly costly.

A Strategic Disaster with Global Consequences

Even if Putin refuses to admit it, the war has already weakened Russia in ways that cannot be reversed:

• Ukrainian nationalism is stronger than ever.

• NATO is larger, richer, and more energized — with Sweden and Finland joining.

• Russia has lost Europe’s gas market.

• More than 500,000 young Russians have fled the country.

• Europe’s combined GDP is 10 times larger than Russia’s — an industrial imbalance Moscow cannot escape.

Putin’s war machine is burning through men and material faster than Russia can replace them, while Ukraine’s Western-backed resilience only grows.

The Kremlin still clings to the illusion of victory. But the trajectory is unmistakable: this is a war Russia cannot win, and Putin cannot survive politically in the long run.

U.S.–Russia Backchannel Diplomacy Raises Fears of Pressure on Kyiv.

As Washington prepares for a new round of direct talks with Moscow, European leaders are bracing for a scenario they have long feared: a peace process that places the burden of concession squarely on Ukraine.

The imminent meeting between Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s hand-picked envoy, has triggered a wave of alarm across Europe, where officials worry that Kyiv may be pushed toward territorial and political compromises it has repeatedly rejected.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, captured the anxiety with unusual bluntness. The risk, she warned, is that “all the pressure will be put on the victim,” while the aggressor escapes accountability.

Kallas and other European leaders argue that any deal that rewards Russia’s invasion—by legitimizing territorial gains or limiting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself—would undermine the principles of sovereignty on which Europe’s postwar order rests.

The concerns are not theoretical. A leaked early version of the U.S. proposal, drafted by Witkoff based on a Russian outline, included sweeping concessions: ceding eastern territories Russia does not yet control, restricting Ukraine’s military capacity, and shelving its NATO ambitions.

Although U.S. officials say the plan has since been revised, Ukraine’s allies see the trajectory clearly—and they fear Kyiv will be cornered.

Zelenskyy, who has spent days rallying European support, emphasized that “Russia must not perceive anything as a reward for this war.” His government insists no Ukrainian territory will be traded for a ceasefire.

But Kyiv is negotiating from a position complicated by both battlefield pressures and political turmoil at home, including the sudden resignation of his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, amid a widening corruption investigation.

European capitals, already uneasy with Trump’s willingness to bypass them, are pressing to ensure they are present at any negotiating table.

France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz each warned that peace cannot be dictated “over Ukraine’s head,” while Poland and the Baltic states argue that allowing Russia to redefine borders by force would embolden other authoritarian regimes.

Trump’s envoys—Witkoff and Jared Kushner—have become central figures in this delicate moment. Their private diplomacy, held in venues from Florida golf resorts to Moscow conference rooms, has raised eyebrows in Europe, where officials remain wary of Trump’s transactional approach to global conflict.

For many, the fact that Trump’s team is negotiating without strong European participation is itself a red flag.

Meanwhile, Russia appears emboldened. Its forces have made their largest territorial gains in a year, seizing more than 700 square kilometers in November alone, according to U.S.-based analysts.

Putin has reiterated maximalist demands: full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas and recognition of Russian control—terms even Kyiv’s most cautious allies consider unacceptable.

Yet the diplomatic clock is ticking. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, acknowledged the complexity but expressed optimism after weekend talks with Ukrainian officials.

The next phase—Witkoff’s arrival in Moscow—will test whether “delicate” diplomacy becomes coercive pressure.

The deeper fear in Europe is that Ukraine may be pushed toward a ceasefire that ends the fighting but codifies Russia’s gains, creating a frozen conflict that rewards aggression and leaves Kyiv strategically weakened.

For leaders like Kallas, the precedent would be catastrophic—not only for Ukraine but for European security as a whole.

This, she warned, is a “pivotal week” for the future of the war. It may also be a turning point for the Western alliance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has resigned after anti-corruption investigators raided his Kyiv residence, a dramatic development that threatens to unsettle Ukraine’s political leadership at a moment of intense diplomatic pressure and battlefield uncertainty.

Yermak, one of the most influential figures in Zelensky’s inner circle since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, has not been accused of wrongdoing. But the raid, carried out by Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, escalated a widening scandal tied to alleged embezzlement in the country’s energy sector.

In recent weeks, prosecutors have detained several officials and linked prominent figures to what they describe as a $100 million kickback scheme involving state-owned enterprises.

The fallout has damaged public trust and weakened Zelensky at a moment when Ukraine is locked in sensitive negotiations with Washington over a U.S.-led peace proposal.

Speaking outside the presidential office in an unusually somber address, Zelensky urged Ukrainians to avoid political infighting, warning, “We risk losing everything: ourselves, Ukraine, our future.”

Until now, Yermak had been leading Ukraine’s talks with the United States as President Donald Trump pursued an accelerated effort to negotiate an end to the nearly four-year war.

His departure comes just days before senior U.S. officials arrive in Kyiv and as Trump’s envoy prepares to travel to Moscow for discussions on the revised peace framework.

The scandal has sharpened international concerns over Ukraine’s anti-corruption record, especially as the country seeks membership in the European Union.

A recent EU report questioned Kyiv’s commitment to reforms, and Russian officials involved in the Trump peace discussions have pointed to the investigations as evidence of systemic misconduct—claims widely viewed in Ukraine as an attempt to exploit domestic turmoil.

Yermak, 54, acknowledged he was under “enormous” pressure to step aside but said he welcomed an independent investigation. Before the raid, he had reiterated Kyiv’s refusal to make territorial concessions to Moscow, saying “no-one should count on us giving up territory” while Zelensky remains president.

The timing of the resignation is particularly sensitive. Russian President Vladimir Putin has renewed maximalist demands, insisting the war will end only when Ukraine withdraws from the entirety of the eastern Donbas region, including cities still under Ukrainian control.

Putin said Thursday that if Kyiv did not comply, Russia would “achieve this by force of arms.”

Ukraine’s political crisis has grown in parallel with the corruption probe. Zelensky has dismissed the energy and justice ministers, while a number of former associates—including Timur Mindich, a businessman linked to Zelensky’s early media career—have left the country as investigations advance.

Public sentiment has shifted sharply: polling shows roughly 70 percent of Ukrainians favored Yermak’s removal.

Zelensky and Yermak became close more than a decade ago, after meeting in the television industry. Their partnership became a central pillar of the Ukrainian government’s wartime leadership.

On the first night of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, they appeared together outside the presidential office in a video that became emblematic of Ukrainian resistance.

Zelensky said he will begin consultations Saturday to appoint a new chief of staff. “Russia wants Ukraine to make mistakes,” he said. “There won’t be any mistakes from our side.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest remarks in Kyrgyzstan signal an unusually blunt negotiating posture: Moscow will halt its nearly four-year war only if Ukrainian forces withdraw from all territories Russia claims as its own—territory Kyiv insists remains sovereign and non-negotiable.

The statement underscores a widening gap between battlefield realities, domestic political constraints, and the frantic U.S. effort to secure a cease-fire before the conflict escalates further.

Putin framed the offer as a straightforward choice: a voluntary Ukrainian withdrawal or a forced one. His confidence reflects the momentum of Russian forces, which have tightened their grip across multiple fronts in Donetsk, Vovchansk and Siversk, and are advancing toward the strategic hub of Guliaipole.

Moscow claims to have encircled Ukrainian formations in Pokrovsk and Myrnograd, though Kyiv disputes any such encirclement. What is clear, however, is that Ukrainian troops—short on ammunition, manpower and air defense—are fighting under conditions that Western officials increasingly describe as unsustainable.

The timing of Putin’s remarks is not accidental. Washington has launched an accelerated diplomatic push built around a revised peace framework, now reduced to roughly 20 points after strong resistance from Kyiv and European allies.

Earlier U.S. drafts proposed Ukrainian withdrawal from parts of Donetsk and implicit recognition of Russia’s hold over Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk—ideas that provoked immediate backlash.

Even the softened version faces political headwinds in Kyiv, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is under pressure to reject any territorial concessions while simultaneously confronting doubts about his own constitutional mandate.

Putin hinted that the latest U.S. proposal could serve as a “basis for future agreements,” but his caveat—that signing anything with Zelenskyy is “almost impossible” due to questions over his legitimacy—introduces a destabilizing complication.

By casting doubt on the Ukrainian leader’s authority, the Kremlin appears to be maneuvering for leverage, perhaps anticipating a fractured or weakened Ukrainian negotiating position.

Meanwhile, U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff is expected in Moscow next week to continue discussions, and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will arrive in Kyiv for consultations with Ukrainian officials.

This parallel diplomacy reflects Washington’s attempt to maintain pressure on both sides even as the situation on the ground deteriorates.

According to data compiled by the Institute for the Study of War, Russia has captured roughly 467 square kilometers per month in 2025—an acceleration from the previous year and a trend that strengthens Moscow’s bargaining power.

As Putin put it, “There is little that can be done about it,” a message clearly intended for both Ukrainian leaders and Western capitals debating how much more support to provide.

The war has already reshaped the European security order, displaced millions, and cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Putin’s latest remarks suggest he believes time—and momentum—is now firmly on his side.

What remains unclear is whether Washington’s evolving peace plan can bridge the distance between battlefield realities and political red lines, or whether the conflict is entering a new, more dangerous phase driven by exhaustion, necessity, and geopolitical expediency.

The newly revealed phone call between U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin aide sheds rare light on how the Trump administration’s emerging Ukraine peace initiative was seeded — and how, even before formal negotiations began, Washington and Moscow were quietly shaping the diplomatic terrain.

According to a recording obtained by Bloomberg, Witkoff spoke for several minutes on Oct. 14 with Yuri Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy adviser.

The call came at a moment when Trump was publicly celebrating his success in brokering the Gaza hostage agreement and privately expressing frustration with Putin’s refusal to end the war in Ukraine.

During the conversation, Witkoff encouraged Ushakov to seize the political momentum created by the Gaza deal and replicate its structure in Ukraine.

He suggested that Putin reach out directly to Trump ahead of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s White House visit later that week, framing the Russian leader as a cooperative partner.

Witkoff also floated the idea of a “20-point” plan for Ukraine modeled on the Gaza negotiation framework.

The Kremlin appeared receptive. Ushakov asked whether a call between Putin and Trump would be useful and signaled he would convey Witkoff’s guidance. Two days later, the two presidents spoke for more than two hours in a call requested by Moscow.

Both sides characterized the discussion as highly productive, and Trump later announced plans for an in-person summit in Budapest.

The phone call also offers a glimpse into what would later become the Trump administration’s 28-point peace proposal — a document U.S. officials have urged Ukraine to accept as the basis for a ceasefire.

The plan, as reported, would require Kyiv to withdraw from portions of the Donbas that Russia has failed to take militarily, transforming the area into a demilitarized buffer zone effectively recognized as Russian. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would receive de facto recognition under the deal, while other front lines would be frozen.

Subsequent conversations among senior Kremlin officials — also reviewed by Bloomberg — show Russian strategists debating how forcefully to press their demands.

Ushakov argued that Moscow should “ask for the maximum,” warning that any ambiguity could allow Washington to reshape the terms and claim premature agreement.

His colleague Kirill Dmitriev suggested that even if the U.S. rejected Russia’s full draft, it would likely adopt a version close enough to meet Moscow’s core objectives.

The Trump administration has publicly defended Witkoff’s role, with the president describing the envoy’s approach as “standard negotiation.” But the disclosures underline a sensitive dynamic: U.S. envoys exploring peace terms with Kremlin officials even as Ukrainian negotiators faced heavy pressure from Washington to accept a compromise they long opposed.

U.S. officials have denied cutting off support, but Ukrainian officials say they were warned intelligence assistance could be reconsidered if Kyiv refused to engage with the outlines of the plan.

After high-level talks in Geneva and further consultations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Kyiv secured adjustments and a slower timeline for negotiations.

For Moscow, the leaked exchanges demonstrate a broader strategy: publicly signaling openness to a U.S.-drafted deal while privately pushing for maximal territorial concessions.

For Washington, they reveal the administration’s confidence in direct personal diplomacy and its belief that Putin can be persuaded — or pressured — into a settlement acceptable to the White House.

Whether this emerging framework ultimately forms the basis of a ceasefire remains uncertain. But the Witkoff–Ushakov call clarifies one thing: the peace plan taking shape in late 2024 was not born in formal talks, but in a quiet exchange between two presidential confidants who each believed they could steer the other’s leader toward an endgame.

Moscow Pushes Pause: Kremlin Says U.S. Peace Plan Not Discussed, Needs Deep Review.

The Kremlin said Wednesday that the latest U.S. proposal for ending the war in Ukraine still requires close examination and has not yet been the subject of substantive talks with Washington.

The clarification came amid reports that American and Russian officials unexpectedly crossed paths during separate meetings in Abu Dhabi this week.

Yuri Ushakov, a senior foreign policy aide to President Vladimir Putin, told state television that Moscow had only recently received the new U.S. draft framework and had not discussed it with U.S. representatives. “We saw it, it was passed on to us, but there haven’t been any discussions yet,” he said, adding that the plan demands “serious analysis” before Russia can issue any formal response.

Russian intelligence officials were in the United Arab Emirates to meet Ukrainian counterparts for what Ushakov described as talks on “very sensitive issues,” including potential prisoner exchanges.

While in Abu Dhabi, they also encountered U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, according to American officials. Ushakov called that meeting “unexpected,” and offered no details on what was discussed.

His comments appear intended to tamp down speculation that Moscow and Washington had quietly launched negotiations over the U.S.-drafted proposal, which U.S. and Ukrainian officials have said outlines a pathway to a ceasefire and broader settlement.

Ushakov signaled that the Kremlin sees both opportunities and challenges in the draft, saying “some aspects can be viewed positively,” while other elements will require “specialized discussion among experts.” He gave no indication of when Moscow might provide an official response.

The remarks highlight the delicate diplomatic choreography surrounding the latest peace initiative, as Washington pushes to secure a Ukrainian-Russian ceasefire while Moscow signals caution and insists it is not yet engaged in detailed talks.

Lavrov Declares Europe ‘Finished’ in Ukraine Peace Efforts as U.S. Takes Lead.

Russia’s top diplomat accused Europe on Tuesday of wasting years of diplomatic opportunities to prevent the current crisis in Ukraine, dismissing any future role for Germany or France in peace efforts and signaling Moscow’s growing preference for alternative mediators.

“You had your chances,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, claiming Berlin and Paris “squandered” the framework laid out in the 2014 and 2015 Minsk accords.

Those agreements, brokered by Germany and France, were meant to grant autonomy to the eastern Donbas region and avert further escalation. Russia later occupied and illegally annexed the territory.

Lavrov said the countries he now considers credible mediators are Belarus, Turkey and Hungary — not the European powers that helped negotiate earlier deals.

He also offered rare praise for the United States, arguing that Washington, “unlike London, Brussels, Paris and Berlin,” is actively attempting to find a diplomatic exit to the war.

Lavrov’s remarks came as Washington signaled that a breakthrough may be near. U.S. officials told CBS News that Ukraine has agreed to the “core terms” of a draft peace deal put forward by the Trump administration, though “minor details” remain unresolved.

Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s national security adviser, said negotiators had reached a “common understanding” in talks with U.S. and European officials and that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could travel to Washington before the end of November to finalize an agreement.

Multiple U.S. officials confirmed that Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is in Abu Dhabi for indirect talks with Russian representatives, shuttling between rooms in what they described as an intensive round of negotiations. A Ukrainian delegation is also present in the UAE and is coordinating with American officials.

The U.S.-led effort follows high-level weekend talks in Geneva involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio, presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and European diplomats.

Negotiators are working off a revised version of a 28-point proposal that includes several contentious provisions — among them, requiring Ukraine to relinquish all of Donetsk, including areas not currently occupied by Russia, and halting Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. Zelenskyy has repeatedly rejected such terms.

A second document circulated among negotiators outlines potential long-term U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine modeled on NATO’s Article 5, according to Ukrainian officials.

The White House said in a statement that Washington and Kyiv have drafted “an updated and refined peace framework,” while noting that further work is needed. Rubio described the discussions as “very meaningful,” though he signaled that Trump’s Thanksgiving deadline is flexible.

American officials say the talks are taking place against a stark battlefield backdrop. Russia is pressing deeper into the eastern Donetsk region, and U.S. analysts believe Moscow is likely to take the strategic hub of Pokrovsk — a key Ukrainian logistics center — if current military trends continue.

One U.S. official told CBS News that Putin appears confident he will control the region “one way or another,” whether through negotiations or force.

Lavrov, meanwhile, emphasized that Russia will wait for the United States to communicate the results of its consultations with Ukraine and European allies, insisting that Moscow will not publicly discuss details until a formal agreement emerges.

Russia has not yet commented on the proposed terms being negotiated in Abu Dhabi, leaving open how far the Kremlin is willing to go — or whether the diplomatic momentum reported by U.S. officials will translate into a durable ceasefire after nearly four years of war.

Sweden’s military is seeking long-range strike capabilities that would allow it to hit targets deep inside Russia, arguing that only such systems can deter Moscow as Europe faces its most volatile security environment in decades.

In a report delivered to the government this week, the Swedish Armed Forces urged the acquisition of cruise missiles with ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers — more than enough to reach well beyond Moscow and deep into Russian military infrastructure.

Defense Minister Pål Jonson said the recommendation reflects lessons drawn from the war in Ukraine, where Russia has relied heavily on long-range missiles, ballistic systems and drones to pressure Kyiv from afar.

“The experience from the war in Ukraine indicates that Russia is vigorously developing its long-range capabilities,” Jonson told Reuters. “We must build a stronger deterrent against that threat.”

The distance between Stockholm and Moscow is roughly 1,000 kilometers — meaning a 2,000-kilometer weapon system would give Sweden the ability to strike far beyond Russia’s western military districts if ever required.

Sweden’s air force has already ordered the Swedish-German Taurus cruise missile, which has an estimated range of 500 kilometers and can be equipped on the JAS 39 Gripen. But Jonson suggested that the government may pursue additional platforms as part of a broader shift toward deeper strike capability.

The military’s report also warns that Russia is expected to expand its overall force capacity within the next five years, despite battlefield losses in Ukraine. To counter that trend, the Swedish Armed Forces recommended significant investments in air and missile defense, enhanced intelligence collection, and expansion of Sweden’s drone and satellite reconnaissance programs.

The proposal reflects Sweden’s new strategic posture as the country prepares to integrate fully into NATO. Long-range strike capabilities, currently limited to a handful of alliance members, would mark a major evolution in Sweden’s defense doctrine — one aimed at both deterring future aggression and reinforcing the alliance’s northern flank.