Amman on Edge as Syrian Power Vacuum and Iranian Influence Threaten Kingdom’s Stability

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through neighboring Jordan, where leaders are grappling with fears of being the next domino in the region’s instability. Already housing 1.3 million Syrian refugees, Jordan’s population—60% of whom are Palestinian—faces rising political and economic pressures, compounded by suspicions of spies among the refugee communities and growing Iranian ambitions.

Relations between Amman and Damascus have long been fraught. Assad’s regime not only withheld critical resources like water and food from Jordan but also taunted the kingdom with veiled threats of facilitating an Iranian takeover. This rhetoric is now backed by action, as Iranian missiles and drones targeting Israel recently landed in Jordanian territory, keeping Jordanian security forces on high alert.

To counter these threats, Jordan has fortified its borders, closing crossings like the Jaber checkpoint near Daraa, and ramping up surveillance on Syrian drug and arms smuggling operations. Maher al-Assad, the brother of the ousted Syrian president, has been implicated in Captagon smuggling networks that exploit Jordan’s porous borders, further destabilizing the kingdom.

Concerns are also mounting over Jordan’s internal dynamics. The Islamic movement, with 16 representatives in parliament, poses a potential challenge, particularly if Syria’s new, yet-undefined government aligns with Jordanian Islamist factions. Turkey’s involvement in Syria, alongside its targeting of Kurdish rebels, adds another layer of complexity to Jordan’s precarious position.

Amid this turmoil, the Jordanian monarchy has found little solace in external alliances. Relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain tense, and although U.S. intelligence agencies closely monitor the kingdom’s stability, direct support has been limited. Meanwhile, Iran, sidelined by Syria’s new regime, is likely to double down on its efforts to gain influence in Jordan, with ripple effects threatening the broader Middle East.

As Jordan stands at a crossroads, its leaders are acutely aware that the kingdom’s stability is not guaranteed. The unfolding dynamics in Syria and persistent Iranian interference demand constant vigilance to prevent Jordan from becoming the next flashpoint in the region’s ongoing power struggles.

Potential military action signals a stark departure from past U.S. policy on Iran.

The Wall Street Journal’s report on the Trump administration’s consideration of preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in U.S. policy. If implemented, such a move would signify a shift from the long-standing reliance on diplomacy and economic sanctions to direct military intervention.

Driving this strategy is heightened concern over Iran’s increased uranium enrichment and its broader influence in the Middle East, particularly following the collapse of its ally, the Assad regime. Sources suggest that President-elect Trump voiced apprehension to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Iran potentially achieving nuclear capability during his term, leading his transition team to assess options for neutralizing this perceived threat.

While Trump’s rhetoric signals a commitment to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the implications of military action are fraught with risks. Striking Iran’s nuclear sites could provoke severe retaliation from Tehran, potentially endangering U.S. forces in the region and escalating into a broader conflict. Trump’s reported desire to avoid another prolonged military engagement underscores the complexity of balancing aggressive action with restraint.

The timing is critical. Iran’s nuclear program, emboldened by reduced constraints post-JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) withdrawal, has fueled concerns over a regional arms race. However, the transition team’s deliberations also point to potential fallout, with analysts warning that preemptive strikes could unite Iran’s factions against the U.S., undermine stability, and exacerbate tensions with Russia and China, both of which have vested interests in Iran.

Conclusion:

While preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could momentarily halt its advancements, the broader consequences of such action remain uncertain. Trump’s approach to Iran reflects a willingness to break with established norms, but it also risks plunging the U.S. into deeper entanglements in the Middle East. Whether this potential strategy garners domestic and international support will likely shape its feasibility and effectiveness.

How Syria’s Captagon trade hastened the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime

The downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was sudden and surprising, but one of the most overlooked factors was the regime’s deep entanglement in the Captagon trade. Captagon, a synthetic amphetamine with immense popularity in the Middle East, became a cornerstone of Syria’s shadow economy, generating billions annually. However, this illicit trade also contributed to Assad’s isolation and eventual collapse.

Captagon’s rise in Syria was a response to crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe. Experts describe Syria under Assad as a textbook narco-state, with state security forces, including the Fourth Armored Division led by Assad’s brother Maher, involved in every stage of the Captagon trade. This so-called “zombie economy” not only filled state coffers but also allowed Assad to wield the drug trade as a bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations, especially with Gulf countries.

However, this strategy backfired spectacularly. Frustration over Syria’s Captagon trade pushed key regional players like Saudi Arabia and Turkey to withdraw their support for normalization efforts. Assad’s attempt to use Captagon as leverage in these negotiations alienated neighbors, who instead pressured for stricter border controls and tougher action against drug trafficking.

The $10 billion-a-year trade ultimately became unmanageable, raising questions about whether Assad controlled the trade or the trade controlled him. As HTS forces took power in Damascus, their leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, declared an end to Syria’s role as the “biggest producer of Captagon on Earth.” This marked a potential turning point, though doubts remain about the ability of Syria’s transitional government to dismantle the entrenched cartel economy.

Conclusion:

The Captagon trade helped Assad cling to power financially but hastened his political and diplomatic collapse. While the regime’s fall brings hope for a fresh start, the challenge of uprooting such a lucrative and deeply entrenched industry underscores the complexities of Syria’s recovery. Without robust governance and international cooperation, the narco-economy may continue to undermine stability in the region.

Abuses by Wagner Mercenaries and Armed Groups Spark Concerns for Mali’s Future.

The withdrawal of the U.N. peacekeeping mission from Mali in late 2022 has left a dangerous vacuum, filled by the Malian army and its Russian allies from the Wagner Group. Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports grave violations, including the deliberate killing of 32 civilians, kidnappings, and destruction of property in central and northern Mali. These actions highlight a brutal counterinsurgency strategy that has turned civilian areas into battlegrounds.

Wagner’s role in Mali epitomizes the increasing reliance of Sahelian juntas on Russian mercenaries to combat jihadi insurgencies after expelling French forces. However, Wagner’s presence has been marked by allegations of human rights abuses, from drone strikes to mass killings, undermining any claims of security improvement. The burning of homes and livestock theft devastates local livelihoods, worsening the humanitarian crisis in this fragile region.

The report also criticizes jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State for their role in the violence, including the execution of 47 civilians and forced displacement. These groups exploit governance gaps, targeting vulnerable communities while further destabilizing Mali.

The departure of the U.N.’s MINUSMA peacekeepers has made it harder to monitor such abuses, raising fears that the reported numbers represent only a fraction of the atrocities. With the ruling junta tightly controlling information, international oversight is minimal, allowing unchecked violence.

The worsening human rights situation in Mali underscores the consequences of militarized governance and external interventions driven by authoritarian regimes. While the junta’s pivot to Russian support aims to stabilize the country, the cost is borne by civilians, trapped between brutal counterterrorism measures and jihadi violence. Without accountability or stronger international scrutiny, Mali risks deeper instability and erosion of human rights.

The collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime after decades of authoritarian rule has ushered in both a moment of liberation and a haunting reckoning. As Syrians celebrate the fall of a brutal dynasty, the ghost of the missing looms large—more than 105,000 people remain unaccounted for, their fates unknown after years of arrests, detentions, and disappearances.

New leadership under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces mounting pressure from human rights organizations to prioritize the preservation of evidence and accountability for atrocities committed during the Assad era. Prison doors across the country, including the infamous Sednaya facility, have swung open, revealing survivors of unspeakable torment while confirming the worst fears of many families.

Unearthing a Legacy of Horror

The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) has documented staggering figures: over 96,000 forcibly disappeared, 15,000 tortured to death, and more than 231,000 civilians killed since 2011. Sednaya Prison, described as a “human slaughterhouse,” epitomizes the horrors of Assad’s reign, with emaciated survivors emerging from cells caked in blood and filth.

Families have descended on these sites in desperate attempts to find answers, some clutching burned or discarded documents in hopes of locating loved ones’ names. Yet the grim reality persists: most of the missing are presumed dead, their stories extinguished in the shadows of one of history’s most brutal regimes.

New Leadership, Old Fears

HTS, the Islamist group now at Syria’s helm, is attempting to present a more restrained face as it consolidates power. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has vowed accountability for former regime officials involved in torture. However, HTS itself is no stranger to controversy, having been implicated in human rights violations, albeit on a smaller scale than Assad’s forces.

Rights groups remain cautiously optimistic. While HTS has committed to a degree of transparency, its past association with al-Qaida and its listing as a terrorist organization by the United Nations and the U.S. raise concerns about the group’s long-term intentions.

The Call for Justice

Global human rights advocates are urging the international community to seize this moment for justice. U.N. envoy Geir Pedersen has called for meticulous documentation of atrocities to ensure accountability under international humanitarian law. The U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria holds confidential records of alleged perpetrators, which could serve as the foundation for future trials.

The SNHR has appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to extradite Assad for trial, emphasizing that accountability must extend beyond Assad’s regime to other armed groups. Yet questions remain: Can a post-Assad Syria build a system that respects human rights and ensures justice, or will it succumb to a new cycle of oppression?

Conclusion

Syria’s transition is fraught with peril and promise. As the country opens the doors of its darkest places, it must confront the full weight of its recent past. Justice for the missing and the tortured is not only a moral imperative but also a foundation for rebuilding a nation fractured by war and betrayal. However, with a new Islamist leadership and the scars of decades-long brutality, Syria’s path to accountability and democracy remains an uncertain and fragile journey.

Examining the geopolitical motives behind Iran, Turkey, and Qatar’s rhetoric against Israeli actions in Syria

Iran and Turkey’s vocal denunciation of Israel’s actions in Syria is more than just rhetoric—it reveals an underlying power struggle over influence in a fragmented post-Assad Syria. Both countries, alongside Qatar, are using Israel as a scapegoat to obscure their own controversial activities and to position themselves as influential stakeholders in Syria’s political future.

Israel’s decisive military actions, including seizing control of the buffer zone on the Golan Heights after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, have drawn sharp criticism. Tehran’s state media lambasted Israel’s strikes on Syrian military sites, branding them a “hostile invasion.” Turkey joined the chorus, accusing Israel of violating Syrian sovereignty while simultaneously solidifying its own control over northern Syria.

Yet, the irony is striking. Iran has armed and supported militias smuggling weapons through Syria, while Turkey’s military operations have ethnically cleansed Kurdish populations and destabilized the region further. Meanwhile, Qatar’s alliance with Hamas fuels its anti-Israel rhetoric, aimed at shifting focus from its support of Islamist agendas elsewhere.

This coordinated narrative aims to influence the new authorities emerging in Damascus, urging them to adopt anti-Israel positions and deepen regional tensions. However, Israel’s stance remains clear. Its support for the Kurds and actions to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into the wrong hands underscore its commitment to both self-defense and the stability of Syria’s minorities.

Iran, Turkey, and Qatar are not mere critics of Israel—they are competitors in shaping Syria’s future. Their condemnation of Israel is an attempt to divert global attention from their opportunistic and destabilizing actions within Syria’s borders. The post-Assad vacuum is a battlefield of narratives, and Israel is being used as a pawn in their geopolitical chessboard.

As Assad’s regime falls, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham positions itself as a transitional leader. Is this a genuine pivot or strategic optics?

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has upended the country’s power dynamics, catapulting Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group, into an unexpected position of influence. While HTS played a pivotal role in overthrowing Assad, their history as an extremist faction and ties to al-Qaeda cast a long shadow over their newfound claim to moderation and governance.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, has been on a years-long campaign to rebrand the organization as a moderate force capable of stabilizing Syria. Since renouncing ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, al-Golani has sought to soften the group’s militant image, positioning HTS as a necessary transitional authority. Early actions, such as granting amnesty to conscript soldiers and promising not to enforce strict dress codes for women, signal a departure from their previous hardline ideology.

The U.S. and its allies, however, remain deeply skeptical. National security officials in Washington are engaged in heated debates over whether HTS’s apparent transformation is genuine or merely a calculated move to consolidate power. Critics point to al-Golani’s extremist history, labeling his recent promises as strategic posturing rather than a genuine pivot. “He has a terrorist’s résumé,” said Nathan Sales, a former U.S. counterterrorism official, cautioning against premature delisting of HTS from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organizations list.

Despite these reservations, the geopolitical landscape compels a nuanced assessment. HTS’s leadership in forming a transitional government in cooperation with Syria’s interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, has introduced a semblance of order in the post-Assad chaos. Europe, like the U.S., is taking a wait-and-see approach, wary of both rewarding HTS prematurely and the risks of disengagement from Syria’s emerging leadership.

The implications for the broader Middle East are profound. Assad’s fall is a devastating blow to Iran and Russia, who invested heavily in propping up his regime. For Iran, the loss further destabilizes its “Axis of Resistance,” while Russia’s influence in the region takes another significant hit. The Syrian power vacuum also represents an opportunity for U.S. allies, particularly Israel, to recalibrate regional alliances and weaken adversaries.

The fate of HTS will shape Syria’s future trajectory. If the group can shed its extremist roots and prove capable of inclusive governance, it could facilitate Syria’s recovery and reintegration into the international community. However, if HTS reverts to authoritarian or militant tactics, it risks perpetuating the cycle of violence and alienation that has plagued the country for over a decade.

In the meantime, the West’s cautious approach reflects the difficulty of balancing pragmatism with principle. For the U.S. and its allies, HTS’s next moves will determine whether Syria’s liberators can transition from insurgents to legitimate stewards of a post-Assad era—or remain burdened by the terrorist label.

As Assad’s regime faces collapse, Iran’s influence across the Middle East unravels.

For decades, Iran’s “Shia Crescent” has symbolized its ambition to expand influence across the Middle East. Anchored in Syria and extending through Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, this network aimed to fortify Tehran’s strategic depth and challenge Israel’s regional dominance. However, recent developments, including the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have exposed significant cracks in Iran’s regional hegemony.

Iran’s commitment to propping up Assad’s regime has been central to its geopolitical strategy. By investing billions in aid, deploying IRGC fighters, and recruiting Shiite militias, Iran created a robust front line to support Hezbollah and secure a pathway for arms to Lebanon. Assad’s Syria was seen as vital to Iran’s self-declared “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and Western powers.

However, the Syrian civil war and subsequent geopolitical shifts have dramatically altered the landscape. Israel’s precision airstrikes have decimated Iranian infrastructure in Syria, cutting supply routes and thwarting weapons transfers to Hezbollah. Simultaneously, Assad’s collapse has disrupted the strategic hub Iran relied upon to maintain its influence.

Compounding these challenges, anti-Iran sentiment has surged across the region. Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have rejected Tehran-backed political elites, signaling public resistance to Iran’s interference. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional strategy, further eroded its ability to mobilize Shiite militias and coordinate its regional agenda.

Iran now faces the unenviable task of recalibrating its ambitions amidst growing instability. Images of Syrian rebels vandalizing Iran’s embassy in Damascus and intensified Israeli strikes have underscored Tehran’s waning influence. While Tehran remains committed to its ideological aspirations, the cracks in its Crescent are undeniable.

For Israel, these developments mark a pivotal opportunity. With Iran weakened, Israel can work to solidify alliances and undermine Tehran’s regional footholds. The decline of the Shia Crescent, coupled with Assad’s potential downfall, presents Israel with a chance to reshape the Middle East’s strategic order—one less dominated by Tehran’s ambitions.

As Iran grapples with these setbacks, the balance of power in the Middle East stands at a critical juncture, offering both risks and opportunities for the region’s future stability.