Terrorism
West Africa: The World’s New Terrorism Hotspot—Can It Be Stopped?
Exploring the Surge of Jihadist Activity and the Shadows of Political Chaos Transforming the Sahel into a Launchpad for Global Terrorism
In the heart of the Sahel, where parched earth meets a turbulent history, West Africa is evolving into the world’s most dangerous nexus of terrorism. Countries previously thought to be stable, like Senegal and Niger, are now grappling with a terrifying surge in violence as jihadist groups exploit the chaos and despair that have taken root in the region. Fueled by the spread of Wahhabist ideology and acts perpetrated by radical offshoots such as Boko Haram, the situation is spiraling out of control.
Just weeks ago, a brazen attack in Mali’s capital, Bamako, shattered what little semblance of peace remained. Armed militants struck just before dawn, targeting a police academy and the airport, leaving a grim toll of lives lost and an unmistakable message of power. This latest assault is not just an isolated incident; it symbolizes a tragic evolution of jihadist influence: they are no longer confined to rural backwaters but are now striking where power and authority reside.
Battered by the headlines of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the crisis in the Sahel has been relegated to the shadows. However, make no mistake—the consequences are profound. According to the U.N.’s International Organization for Migration, the route to Europe via West African coastal nations has seen a staggering 62% increase in migrant arrivals this year, largely driven by the escalating violence in the Sahel.
As desperate families flee conflict and strife, the longstanding tide of migration puts pressure on the already polarizing political climate in Europe, coinciding with the rise of far-right anti-immigrant parties.
This is a critical moment—a boiling cauldron of conflicts compounded by climate change—forcing people from their homes. The International Federation of the Red Cross warns of a rising influx of women and families driven by the dual threats of violence and environmental changes. In Burkina Faso, terrorist acts are now reaching apocalyptic proportions, with jihadists massacring civilians in broad daylight.
As the Sahel fractures further, experts speculate darkly about the future. Caleb Weiss, a prominent analyst, warns that the failing regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso could soon give rise to “jihadist states” or worse. With Western military powers withdrawing support, these countries are trading traditional alliances for partnerships with mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group—a shift that does little to quell the violence.
In the chaotic aftermath, the global implications of a Sahel overrun by jihadists become startlingly clear. General Michael Langley of U.S. Africa Command articulates a lingering worry: “These organizations harbor aspirations of attacking the United States.” Although they have yet to find the means to strike directly in Europe or America, the mere thought of a fortified base of operations in the Sahel is chilling.
In this landscape of fear and oppression, terrorists provide a semblance of order through coercive tactics and the offering of basic services, preying on the disenfranchised. A young escapee from Mali recounts his harrowing experience under their rule, illustrating the depth of manipulation and fear governing this chaotic environment.
While European nations squabble over how to respond to the growing crisis, the impact of West Africa’s turmoil is undeniable. A tipping point is approaching, where a confluence of grievances, failures, and radicalization could propel the Sahel onto the global stage as a formidable center of jihadist activity.
As the dust settles from a series of catastrophic events, the world watches with bated breath, wondering if global leaders will awaken to the urgent need for a cohesive strategy to combat the rising tide of terrorism, or if they will allow the Sahel to further descend into barbarism—a concept so terrifying it could shape our future geopolitical landscape for decades to come.
EDITORIAL ANALYSIS
Washington’s Dangerous Double Game in Somalia
Terrorism
U.S. Mission Decimates Al-Shabaab Command in Middle Shabelle
Senior Western intelligence sources confirm high-value leadership figures were targeted in a massive, coordinated air campaign near El Baraf, reaffirming that the most decisive counter-terrorism leverage in Somalia remains deployed from outside the dysfunctional political matrix of Mogadishu.
Late last night, the air over the Middle Shabelle region became a proving ground for the most focused counter-terrorism mission in the Horn of Africa.
Multiple, powerful airstrikes hammered Al-Shabaab positions in the vicinity of the El Baraf district. The impact was reportedly massive, with concussive force heard miles away, signaling a sustained and highly kinetic operation.
While the Federal Government of Somalia has remained conspicuously silent on the operation, multiple independent and local media reports confirm the strikes were executed by warplanes—consistent with the operational footprint of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) and its unmanned aerial capabilities.
Reliable intelligence analysis suggests the strikes were not aimed at low-value fighting units or static fortifications. Rather, the deliberate, double-tap nature of the attack confirms a precise, high-value targeting mission.
Senior security officials familiar with coalition operational protocols indicate that the areas around El Baraf targeted were known to serve as a command and control nexus for Al-Shabaab’s operational leadership in central Somalia.
This region, strategically located near supply lines and known hideouts, is frequently utilized for planning major offensives.
Intelligence sources speculate the strikes aimed to eliminate critical mid- to senior-tier commanders responsible for finance, recruitment, and external attack planning.
Such targets, if confirmed killed, create immediate operational paralysis, forcing the terrorist group to spend crucial time and resources restructuring its hierarchy rather than planning attacks.
The U.S. counter-terrorism mission utilizes this surgical pressure to degrade the group’s organizational resilience and deny it safe harbor.
This successful, high-impact aerial operation throws into stark relief the fundamental difference in operational capability between the focused U.S. counter-terrorism strategy and the broader, more politicized ground efforts currently underway in Somalia.
The intelligence-driven, precision strike capability—often deploying stealth assets like drones—bypasses the federal-state rivalries, logistical nightmares, and corruption that plague ground forces.
It demonstrates that the most effective tool against a mobile, decentralized insurgency like Al-Shabaab is the persistent denial of secure operating space, executed by external partners who are unburdened by Somalia’s internal political paralysis.
The continued use of these kinetic strikes serves as an unambiguous policy declaration: Al-Shabaab will be pursued relentlessly, regardless of the pace of Somali state-building.
The fallout from this targeted strike will ripple through both the terrorist network and the political landscape:
The loss of key commanders creates operational confusion, forcing the group to fragment its leadership and rely on less experienced commanders, degrading their ability to mount sophisticated regional attacks.
The heavy nature of the strikes signals to both Al-Shabaab and regional players (including rivals like Ethiopia and new entrants like Egypt) that the U.S. counter-terrorism commitment to the Horn of Africa remains primary, decisive, and fully operational.
The U.S. mission, though often operating in the shadows, consistently delivers the high-impact security gains that the political theatre in Mogadishu struggles to consolidate.
The heavy airstrikes near El Baraf underscore that the most important security victories in Somalia are won from above, driven by intelligence, and executed with a precision that few regional actors can match.
Terrorism
Airstrike Kills Founding al-Shabaab Commander in Middle Jubba
Somali government says Mahmoud Abdi Hamud, alias Jaafar Gurey—a key architect of al-Shabaab’s intelligence and finance network—was killed in a precision airstrike targeting Bu’aale.
A Somali airstrike in Middle Jubba has killed Jaafar Gurey, one of al-Shabaab’s founding members and a senior figure behind its intelligence and financial operations, as the government intensifies its offensive against the militant group.
A founding member of al-Shabaab, Mahmoud Abdi Hamud—better known by his nom de guerre Jaafar Gurey—was killed in a Somali government airstrike in the Middle Jubba region, officials confirmed Monday.
The strike, carried out on the night of October 26 and targeting the militant stronghold of Bu’aale, marks a major blow to the group’s upper leadership.
Somalia’s Defence Ministry said Gurey played a pivotal role in the group’s formation, serving as both financier and strategist during its early years.
“Over the years, he held several senior positions, including Head of External Security, Head of Leadership Security, and Head of Intelligence Tracking—all tied to the group’s espionage and assassination operations,” the ministry said.
Security sources say Gurey was one of the few remaining veterans linked to al-Shabaab’s original leadership circle under the late Ahmed Abdi Godane.
Together, they orchestrated financial schemes that included extorting funds from regional companies—including an Ethiopian contractor—to bankroll the group’s initial expansion.
The airstrike is part of a broader offensive aimed at dismantling al-Shabaab’s command structure across southern and central Somalia.
It follows a string of recent operations by the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), which in September announced the killing of senior commander Abdi Hiiray and, earlier, Mohamed Abdi Dhiblawe—the alleged mastermind behind the March attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy in Mogadishu.
Al-Shabaab, which has waged an insurgency for over sixteen years, continues to rely on asymmetric warfare—suicide bombings, targeted assassinations, and propaganda—to undermine government authority.
But the death of Gurey underscores a mounting attrition campaign targeting the group’s original architects—men whose operational knowledge once made al-Shabaab one of Africa’s most resilient militant networks.
Officials say the operation in Bu’aale sends a clear message: the Somali state is no longer hunting foot soldiers—it is systematically eliminating the architects of terror.
Terrorism
Somali Militants Linked to Mozambique’s Bloody Insurgency
A new Mozambican government report has revealed that Somali nationals are among foreign fighters implicated in eight years of terror attacks across the country’s northern Cabo Delgado province — a region that has become one of Africa’s most violent jihadist battlegrounds.
Authorities in Maputo confirmed the opening of 918 terrorism-related cases, with 724 individuals accused of direct involvement in the wave of attacks that began in 2017.
Among them are 105 foreign fighters, primarily from Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi, Kenya, and South Africa — pointing to a transnational jihad network stretching from the Horn of Africa to the southern Indian Ocean.
So far, 462 suspects have been convicted, receiving prison sentences ranging from 2 to 30 years, underscoring the government’s determination to dismantle what it describes as “foreign-fueled extremism.”
According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the Cabo Delgado insurgency has claimed over 6,200 lives, including more than 2,600 civilians, and displaced over 90,000 people.
Many of the displaced have fled to neighboring provinces such as Balama, Mocímboa da Praia, Montepuez, Chiúre, and Memba, where humanitarian needs remain acute.
Security analysts believe that Islamic State–affiliated cells operating in northern Mozambique are increasingly recruiting and embedding foreign militants from East Africa, with Somalia playing a key logistical and ideological role.
Intelligence assessments suggest that veterans of al-Shabaab networks have crossed into southern Africa through Kenya and Tanzania, bringing financing, combat experience, and ideological training to local insurgents.
The Mozambican government insists it remains committed to restoring peace, vowing to “secure the nation’s sovereignty and protect its citizens.”
International partners — including the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwandan security forces — continue to provide counterinsurgency support in the region.
The revelations of Somali involvement, however, mark a new and troubling chapter in Africa’s jihadist landscape: a continental web of militancy that now links Somalia’s al-Shabaab, IS-Mozambique, and transnational extremist financiers.
For regional intelligence officials, the warning is clear — Cabo Delgado is no longer just Mozambique’s war; it’s Africa’s next jihad frontier.
Terrorism
Puntland’s New Law Tests Limits of Power and Fear
GAROWE — In a move that has stirred fierce debate across Somalia’s federal landscape, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni has signed into law a controversial Anti-Terrorism Bill that dramatically expands the powers of the region’s intelligence and security forces.
The law, approved by the Puntland Parliament in late July, was officially enacted this week following the president’s signature — a decision that legal experts and civil society groups warn could erode constitutional protections and normalize warrantless surveillance.
Under the new provisions, security forces may now enter private homes, offices, or vehicles without a judicial warrant when pursuing individuals suspected of terrorism.
The law also grants intelligence agencies broad powers to monitor phone calls, track digital communications, and detain suspects for extended periods without immediate court oversight.
“Exceptional Powers” — or a Constitutional Breach?
While the government argues the law is a necessary response to the growing ISIS presence in the Bari mountains, legal critics say it undermines Article 21 of the Puntland Constitution, which protects citizens from unauthorized searches and surveillance except in emergencies involving an active crime.
“This law blurs the line between national security and individual freedom,” said one Garowe-based constitutional lawyer, speaking to WARYATV under condition of anonymity. “It allows executive forces to interpret ‘terrorism’ as they wish — a dangerous precedent in a fragile democracy.”
The new law introduces harsh penalties, including up to 20 years in prison or the death penalty for anyone convicted of joining or materially supporting terrorist organizations. Human rights groups have voiced concern that the broad definitions could be used to silence journalists, opposition figures, or clerics under the guise of counterterrorism.
Deni’s Security Gamble
President Deni defended the measure as “an urgent necessity to defend the people of Puntland from extremist infiltration.”
His administration has launched an aggressive campaign against ISIS cells entrenched in the Cal Miskaad mountains, pledging a final phase to root out militants and their financial backers.
“This is a war for the survival of our state,” a senior official in Puntland’s Security told WARYATV, adding that the law “gives our forces the legal mandate they need to act decisively.”
However, internal sources within Garowe’s government hinted that the law also consolidates Deni’s political control, giving his security apparatus a freer hand in intelligence operations and detention procedures — just months ahead of a tense political season.
Between Security and Liberty
For many in Puntland, the law represents a grim trade-off between public safety and civil rights. “We understand the fear of terrorism,” said a university lecturer in Bosaso, “but fear should not write our laws.”
Diplomatic observers told WARYATV that international partners — including the UN and EU — are closely monitoring how the law is implemented, particularly in relation to human rights obligations under Somalia’s federal framework.
Whether this move strengthens Puntland’s counterterrorism campaign or opens the door to unchecked authoritarian practices may soon define the next chapter of Deni’s leadership — and the region’s fragile experiment in semi-autonomous governance.
Somalia
Turkish ISIS Fighters Found Hiding in Somalia’s Mountains
Puntland’s elite Dervish forces have captured a Turkish national and ISIS operative, identified as Feyzul Hashim Suleyman, during an intelligence-led raid in Togga Balade, a remote area of the Bari region long known as a refuge for jihadist cells.
The operation, part of the fourth phase of Operation Hilac, marks a major success in Puntland’s campaign to dismantle ISIS networks entrenched in the Cal-Miskaad mountains.
Security officials confirmed to WARYATV that Suleyman’s arrest follows weeks of tracking by Puntland intelligence units.
He is believed to be the second Turkish national captured in two months, after the June arrest of Hassan Ataar, another ISIS-linked foreign fighter operating in the same area.
Authorities disclosed that two additional Turkish nationals — Emre Kemal Yilmaz and Aylin Derya Kaya — remain at large, reportedly still hiding in the Cal-Miskaad mountain range, where ISIS has maintained training and logistics bases since 2015.
According to Gen. Ahmed Abdilaahi Sheikh, a senior Puntland military officer overseeing the campaign, the captured men are part of a group of Turkish fugitives who fled their country after the failed 2016 coup attempt.
“Our intelligence indicates they joined ISIS in Syria before relocating to Puntland, where they embedded themselves in local militant networks,” Gen. Ahmed told reporters.
He said investigations are underway to establish possible links between these foreign fighters and international smuggling operations and the PKK’s regional shadow networks.
Security experts say the arrests highlight an alarming development — the Cal-Miskaad range is evolving into a transnational haven for foreign extremists seeking to rebuild ISIS’s operational capacity across East Africa.
Analysts warn that the integration of Turkish, Syrian, and Somali militants in the area points to a renewed strategy by ISIS to use Puntland as a regional coordination hub, exploiting the difficult terrain and weak maritime monitoring along the Gulf of Aden.
A Somali national was also captured during Monday’s clashes, suggesting that local recruits continue to provide logistical cover for foreign fighters.
WARYATV’s defense sources note that Puntland’s Operation Hilac has become one of the Horn of Africa’s most effective counterterrorism efforts, conducted without significant foreign troop presence but supported by intelligence coordination with regional partners.
The operation’s success underscores Puntland’s growing role as a frontline state in the global fight against ISIS and transnational terrorism — and raises new questions about the flow of foreign jihadists from Turkey, Syria, and Iraq into Somalia’s northern highlands.
Terrorism
Belgium Foils Terror Plot Targeting Prime Minister Bart De Wever
Belgian authorities narrowly averted what could have been one of Europe’s most shocking political assassinations in recent years — a jihadist-inspired plot to assassinate Prime Minister Bart De Wever and other political figures.
The operation, confirmed Thursday by the federal prosecutor’s office and Deputy Prime Minister Maxime Prévot, exposes a chilling reality: the terror threat that once defined Europe’s post-ISIS era has not disappeared — it has simply evolved.
According to officials, two suspects were arrested in Antwerp after police raids uncovered explosive materials, steel ball bearings, and drone components, suggesting a complex hybrid attack involving both traditional and remote-controlled delivery methods.
Prosecutors say the evidence points to “attempted terrorist murder and participation in the activities of a terrorist group.”
Belgian Justice Minister Annelies Verlinden said the arrests likely prevented the attack from being carried out as planned on Thursday. “It highlights that we are facing a very real terrorist threat and that we have to remain vigilant,” Prévot posted on X.
The plot’s sophistication — a blend of IED technology and drone deployment — fits a growing pattern seen among jihadist cells attempting to bypass Europe’s tightened counterterrorism networks.
The planned assassination of De Wever, who has taken a hard line on radicalization and organized crime, signals that Belgium’s enemies are no longer merely symbolic; they are strategic, targeting the state’s most visible defenders.
The arrests come amid renewed unease across Europe, where intelligence agencies warn that extremist recruitment is resurging online, blending jihadist ideology with grievance politics, drug-gang networks, and lone-wolf radicalization.
Belgium, already scarred by the 2016 Brussels bombings that killed 32 people, has remained a focal point for Islamist extremism. The country’s dense urban centers and fragmented policing structure make it an attractive node for transnational plots.
Prime Minister De Wever, known for his uncompromising stance on security and integration, has drawn criticism from Islamist groups and far-left activists alike. His leadership in Antwerp — one of Europe’s major drug trafficking hubs — also placed him squarely in the crosshairs of both extremist and criminal networks.
The use of drones in the planned attack marks a disturbing evolution in terror tactics. European security officials have long warned that consumer drones could be modified to carry explosives or surveillance payloads, turning low-cost technology into weapons of precision terror.
Thursday’s operation suggests that this threat is no longer theoretical. For Belgium, this foiled plot is both a victory and a warning.
It shows the country’s counterterrorism apparatus remains alert and capable — but it also underscores that Europe’s jihadist threat is adaptive, waiting for political distraction or institutional fatigue to strike again.
As De Wever’s government tightens security and reviews vulnerabilities, the broader question looms: how long can Europe remain complacent when political assassination, once the domain of far-left militancy and nationalist violence, now sits at the intersection of jihadism, technology, and social unrest?
Terrorism
U.K. Police Given More Time to Question Four Suspects After Deadly Manchester Synagogue Attack
British police have been granted additional time to question four suspects following a deadly attack outside a Manchester synagogue that left two worshippers dead and several others wounded on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.
The assailant, identified as 35-year-old Jihad Al-Shamie, was shot dead by officers on Thursday after he rammed a car into pedestrians, stabbed several people, and attempted to force his way into the Heaton Park Congregation Synagogue. Authorities said he was wearing a fake explosives belt.
Two members of the congregation—Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53—were killed in the attack. Police later confirmed that Daulby died after being struck by a bullet fired by an officer during the chaos, as congregants tried to barricade the synagogue’s entrance.
Three others remain hospitalized with serious injuries.
Investigators believe Al-Shamie, a British citizen of Syrian origin, may have been influenced by extremist ideology. He was reportedly on bail for an alleged rape case at the time of the attack but had not been charged.
Six people were arrested in the days following the incident on suspicion of “commission, preparation, and instigation of acts of terrorism.” A court on Saturday approved a police request to detain four of them—two men aged 30 and 32 and two women aged 46 and 61—for an additional five days.
An 18-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man were released without charge. Police have not disclosed the suspects’ identities or detailed their connection to Al-Shamie.
The assault has sent shockwaves through Britain’s Jewish community and reignited a national debate over antisemitism, free expression, and public protest.
Recorded antisemitic incidents have surged in the United Kingdom since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza, according to the Community Security Trust, which monitors antisemitic activity.
Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis called the Manchester killings “the tragic consequence of an unrelenting wave of Jew hatred,” both online and on the streets.
The tragedy also came amid renewed tension over pro-Palestinian demonstrations. On Saturday, protests went ahead in Manchester and London despite appeals from Prime Minister Keir Starmer and police to postpone them “out of respect for the victims.” In Manchester, several dozen demonstrators rallied under Palestinian flags, chanting against Israel’s Gaza offensive.
In London, hundreds gathered in Trafalgar Square to oppose the government’s recent ban on the activist group Palestine Action, which has targeted U.K. arms manufacturers linked to Israel.
The government’s decision to designate the group a terrorist organization has made public support for it a criminal offense. Police said more than 490 arrests were made during Saturday’s protest, part of a wider crackdown that has seen over 2,000 detentions since the ban took effect in July.
At a vigil for the victims on Friday, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy was heckled by protesters shouting “Shame on you,” reflecting the polarization that has increasingly defined Britain’s public discourse over the Gaza conflict.
As the investigation continues, Manchester remains under heightened security, with police guarding synagogues and Jewish schools across the region. Prime Minister Starmer said Britain would “do everything necessary to keep our Jewish community safe.”
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