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Extremist Violence in Africa’s Sahel Intensifies Amid Governance Challenges

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A Region Gripped by Instability

The Sahel, a vast and volatile region south of the Sahara Desert, has been besieged by a surge in extremist violence over recent months, culminating in unprecedented attacks that highlight the growing capabilities of Islamist militant groups. In early September, jihadist militants targeted Bamako, Mali’s capital, for the first time in nearly a decade, raising alarm over the expanding reach of insurgents in the region. Just weeks earlier, over 100 civilians and soldiers were killed in a brutal assault in Burkina Faso, underscoring the relentless violence that has ravaged the region.

For more than a decade, the Sahel has been engulfed in a crisis marked by extremist insurgencies, political instability, and military coups. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—three nations central to the Sahel—are now governed by military juntas, each having seized power under the promise of restoring order and security. Yet, rather than stabilizing the region, the security landscape has deteriorated further.

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), more than 3,000 civilians were killed in the first half of 2023 alone—a 25 percent increase from the previous six months. The violence stems not only from jihadist groups but also from state security forces accused of widespread abuses.

The Extremist Networks Driving the Violence

Two primary groups dominate the extremist landscape in the Sahel: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Sahel. While JNIM has become increasingly embedded in local communities, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, the Islamic State’s operations are concentrated in the Lake Chad Basin, where it commands less political influence.

Analysts point out that JNIM’s integration with local insurgent factions has granted it broader acceptance among local populations, giving it an advantage over the more fragmented and less politically entrenched Islamic State faction.

“The local populations support [JNIM] more than IS-affiliated groups,” said Shaantanu Shankar, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit. “They have integrated local rebel groups, which have close community ties.”

The insurgents, whether affiliated with al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, have inflicted terror on local populations through relentless attacks, kidnappings, and mass killings. These actions, rights groups say, likely constitute war crimes.

The Sahel’s governance crisis has worsened as the military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have severed ties with their traditional Western allies. Upon taking power, these juntas withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and formed the Alliance of Sahel States in September, aligning their security policies more closely with Russia while distancing themselves from France and the United States.

However, the introduction of Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military company, has done little to fill the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western forces. “There is a huge security vacuum after the withdrawal of the French and American military,” Shankar added. “The financial and logistical capacity of the Russian presence is limited.”

Compounding the instability is a deepening economic crisis. Economic discontent, particularly among the region’s youth, has helped fuel the rise of extremist groups. Militants have successfully recruited individuals from marginalized communities, where job opportunities are scarce, and government services are often nonexistent.

“There are very few opportunities for people in rural Sahel, especially the youth,” said Heni Nsabia, an analyst with ACLED. “People whose families and communities were targeted by state forces seek security, status, and vengeance through these groups.”

Financing Extremist Activities: A Diversified Strategy

Despite their links to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the Sahel’s militant groups primarily finance their operations through localized means. They impose taxes on local communities, control the region’s lucrative natural resources—particularly gold—and engage in cattle theft. Trafficking, particularly of narcotics, has also become a critical revenue stream, allowing militants to maintain their operations despite international counterterrorism efforts.

The illegal trade in human trafficking, especially across the Sahel’s porous borders, has also proven profitable, with analysts warning that turmoil in Libya and changes in Niger’s migration policies could exacerbate the crisis.

“The business model that these groups developed is very diversified,” Nsabia explained. “This is why it is difficult to destroy them economically. If you target one aspect, they have other sources of revenue.”

Experts warn that the situation in the Sahel is likely to deteriorate further. With the military juntas more focused on consolidating power than addressing the root causes of extremism, insecurity is expected to worsen.

“It’s a very volatile phase, and security is projected to get worse in the next two years,” Shankar observed.

The extremist threat is no longer confined to the Sahel. Militant groups have extended their reach into West Africa’s coastal nations, including Benin and Nigeria, raising concerns that more stable regions could soon face the same violence that has plagued the Sahel.

“It’s undeniable that things are getting worse,” Nsabia said. “We should not just be talking about the Sahel, but also about Benin and Togo, where militants have ventured inland by more than 200 kilometers.”

International Response: Limited but Crucial Support

In response to the escalating threat, the United States and European nations are intensifying efforts to bolster counterterrorism initiatives in West Africa’s coastal nations. Michael Langley, the head of U.S. Africa Command, indicated that Washington was working closely with Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Benin to recalibrate military assistance in the region.

Still, a significant challenge remains: access to accurate information. The military juntas have imposed severe restrictions on journalism, controlling the narrative and determining who is labeled a jihadist. In Mali, the government has branded ethnic Tuaregs—who have long fought for greater autonomy—as jihadis, even though only a portion of them are aligned with extremist groups.

As the Sahel grapples with increasing violence and political fragility, the international community faces the daunting task of supporting fragile governments while combatting the proliferation of extremist groups. With growing instability extending beyond the region’s borders, the consequences of the Sahel crisis may soon be felt across West Africa and beyond. Whether regional and global powers can prevent further destabilization remains uncertain, as extremist groups continue to exploit the vast and vulnerable terrain of the Sahel.

Terrorism

Senior Al-Shabaab Commander Defects Amid Somalia’s Intensified Crackdown

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High-ranking Al-Shabaab commander surrenders to Somali forces as defections rise under military pressure.

Somalia’s relentless offensive against Al-Shabaab has pushed yet another senior commander to abandon the militant group. Abuukar Aadan Buulle, a key figure within Al-Shabaab’s ranks, surrendered to Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) forces in Luuq, Gedo region.

Buulle, who trained in Wargaduudo village and later commanded Al-Shabaab operations in Ceel Cadde, revealed he had been with the group since 2015, actively participating in multiple battles. Now, he has defected, urging his former comrades to follow his lead and abandon the insurgency.

His surrender reflects a strategic collapse within Al-Shabaab, as intensified military offensives and security crackdowns continue to dismantle their operational strongholds. The Somali government has amplified efforts to weaken the terror group from within, encouraging defections while delivering decisive military blows.

With defections on the rise and Al-Shabaab losing ground, the Somali government is gaining momentum in its war to eradicate the militant presence once and for all. More commanders will likely follow suit—as the battlefield grows smaller, surrender may be their only escape.

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Telegram Shuts Down Key ISIS Propaganda Channel Amid Puntland Conflict

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Telegram takes down ISIS’s Iclaam news website, a major propaganda outlet covering the war in Puntland. Meanwhile, ISIS shifts its messaging to Facebook.

Telegram has taken decisive action against ISIS propaganda, shutting down the Iclaam website, a key outlet used by the terror group to spread war reports and recruitment messaging. This move disrupts ISIS’s ability to control its narrative on the ongoing conflict in the Calmiskaad mountains of Puntland, where Puntland forces continue their offensive to dismantle the group’s strongholds.

ISIS has long relied on Telegram as a secure and effective platform for communication, recruitment, and psychological warfare. However, tech companies have increasingly cracked down on extremist content, and Iclaam’s removal signals a continued effort to restrict the group’s influence.

While it remains unclear whether the Somali Federal Government played a role in the takedown, Mogadishu has previously targeted and removed hundreds of Al-Shabaab and ISIS-affiliated websites as part of its counterterrorism strategy.

Undeterred, ISIS has swiftly adapted, launching a new media platform, Tageere Radio Hijratayn, through Facebook. This outlet now serves as the group’s primary channel for broadcasting war updates, spreading propaganda, and attempting to radicalize new recruits.

The Puntland government has vowed to take action against those engaging with ISIS media, with authorities already handing down prison sentences to suspected supporters. As Puntland forces continue tightening their grip on ISIS-controlled areas, the battle against the group’s digital footprint has become just as critical as the fight on the ground.

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Islamic State’s Elusive Caliph Revealed? Intelligence Points to Somalia’s Abdul Qadir Mumin

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New intelligence points to Somalia-based Abdul Qadir Mumin as ISIS’s global leader, marking a major shift in the terror group’s strategy.

The hunt for ISIS’s global mastermind may have ended in the mountains of Somalia. Intelligence agencies are circling around Abdul Qadir Mumin, the long-time head of ISIS-Somalia, as the man behind the terror group’s global command. A UN-backed intelligence report suggests growing confidence that Mumin, who has survived multiple assassination attempts, is in fact Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, the elusive ISIS caliph. If confirmed, this marks a radical shift in ISIS’s leadership strategy—placing an African warlord at the helm of the world’s most feared terrorist network.

For years, ISIS has concealed its leadership to evade detection, but new evidence shows the group pivoting from Iraq and Syria to Africa, using Somalia as a hardened command center. Mumin operates from a fortified hideout in Somalia’s Golis Mountains, where he has expanded ISIS’s financial empire, boosted recruitment, and secured advanced weaponry, including drones for precision strikes. U.S. airstrikes have failed to eliminate him, and now, his forces are growing bolder, extending their influence across Somalia and beyond.

ISIS’s shift to Africa signals a major challenge for global counterterrorism forces. As Western intelligence scrambles to confirm Mumin’s role, the terror group continues to evolve, embedding itself deeper into Somalia’s lawless terrain while maintaining operational cells in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. With ISIS-K in Afghanistan escalating attacks and foreign recruits flowing into Somalia, the world may be facing a deadlier, more decentralized ISIS than ever before. If Mumin is indeed the caliph, then the battlefield has changed—making the fight against ISIS even more unpredictable and relentless.

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Jubbaland Forces Capture Senior Al-Shabaab Judge

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Jubbaland security forces raid Al-Shabaab stronghold, killing four militants and capturing a high-ranking judge in a strategic counterterrorism operation.

Jubbaland security forces have scored a major counterterrorism victory after capturing a senior Al-Shabaab judicial official and killing four militants in a targeted raid near Dhoobley, southern Somalia.

The high-stakes operation, conducted in the Lafo-Gari area of Lower Juba, led to the arrest of Moalim Mohamed, who served as deputy judge in one of Al-Shabaab’s shadow courts. These courts have been instrumental in enforcing the group’s brutal form of Islamic law, issuing arbitrary punishments and controlling local populations through fear.

According to Colonel Mohamed Heybe, the security commander of Dhoobley district, intelligence reports pinpointed Al-Shabaab activity in the area, prompting a surprise raid by Jubbaland forces.

Upon arrival, around 20 militants engaged the security forces in a fierce gunfight. After a brief but intense battle, four Al-Shabaab fighters, including the group’s financial chief for Lafo-Gari, were eliminated, and two others were wounded before the remaining insurgents fled.

The capture of Moalim Mohamed is a significant development in the ongoing efforts to dismantle Al-Shabaab’s operational and financial networks in Lower Juba. The group has long relied on informal taxation and judicial control to enforce its rule and fund its operations.

This latest operation highlights the increasing effectiveness of Somali federal and regional forces, backed by international partners, in combating the al-Qaeda-linked insurgency that has terrorized Somalia and spilled over into Kenya for more than 15 years.

The Somali government has intensified its military campaign against Al-Shabaab in recent months, with coordinated offensives across multiple regions. The successful raid near Dhoobley underscores Jubbaland’s commitment to eliminating militant strongholds and cutting off Al-Shabaab’s revenue sources.

With continuous operations targeting militant leaders, financiers, and enforcers, the noose is tightening around Al-Shabaab, setting the stage for further counterterrorism successes in southern Somalia.

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Puntland Forces Close in on ISIS Stronghold, Final Battle Nears

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Puntland troops push within 15km of ISIS’s last base in Somalia, vowing total eradication of the group.

Puntland forces are tightening the noose around the last ISIS stronghold in Somalia, pushing within 15 kilometers of the group’s final hideouts in the Al Miskaad mountains. Once spread across the Bari region, ISIS militants now control just 40 square kilometers of rugged terrain as Puntland’s military offensive intensifies.

“We are closing in on their final hideouts, and soon, ISIS will be eradicated from this region,” said Puntland’s Minister of Information, Mohamud Aydid Dirir. He asserted that the operation is in its final stage, with forces poised to enter open areas where armored units can be effectively deployed.

Despite Puntland’s advances, Dirir accused Somalia’s federal government of withholding essential military support, stating that national resources remain centralized in Mogadishu while frontline troops battle terrorists without adequate weapons and ammunition.

Puntland has been leading the charge against ISIS in Somalia for weeks, seeking to destroy the group’s last safe haven and eliminate its ability to wage attacks. Military officials insist that operations will continue until ISIS is completely wiped out from Puntland, reinforcing the region’s autonomy and security.

With ISIS on the brink of defeat, Puntland’s offensive represents a critical moment in Somalia’s fight against terrorism. The final battle is imminent, and Puntland is determined to deliver a decisive blow.

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UN Warns of Rising IS-K Threat from Afghanistan, Calls for Global Action

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Islamic State-Khorasan’s growing influence in Afghanistan poses a major security risk to the region and beyond, warns UN Security Council.

The UN Security Council has raised alarms over the increasing threat posed by Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) in Afghanistan, warning that the group is actively plotting attacks beyond the region. UN counterterrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov stated that IS-K remains one of the most dangerous branches of ISIS, with networks reaching Europe and Central Asia. The U.S. and China echoed concerns, urging Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to take decisive action against the terrorist group.

Russia blamed the 2021 NATO withdrawal for fueling IS-K’s expansion, claiming that abandoned Western military equipment has strengthened the group. Meanwhile, Pakistan rejected suggestions that IS-K is recruiting from its territory, insisting that Afghanistan remains the hub for the group’s activities. The Taliban, despite previous claims of eliminating IS-K, continue to face deadly insurgent attacks, including the assassination of a top Taliban minister in December.

With IS-K’s reach growing, the UN has urged all member states to coordinate efforts to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a global terror epicenter once again.

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Puntland Seeks Global Aid to Crush ISIS Strongholds

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Puntland requests technical and logistical support to sustain military campaign against ISIS in the Al-Miskaat Mountains.

Puntland’s war against ISIS is intensifying, and its leadership is making a direct call to the international community for urgent support. General Abdirahman Mohamed Jama, commander of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF), has stressed the need for advanced equipment, including drone interceptors, mine detectors, and night vision devices, to sustain military operations in the Bari region.

For over six weeks, Puntland forces have launched relentless offensives, reclaiming hundreds of square kilometers from ISIS control. The Al-Miskaat Mountains have long been a terrorist stronghold, offering militants natural protection and strategic positioning for attacks. However, Puntland’s military advances have disrupted ISIS’s extortion networks and operational bases.

While General Jama clarified that Puntland is not seeking direct foreign military intervention, intelligence-sharing and logistical aid from international partners are critical to ensuring victory. Puntland’s fight against ISIS is a battle for regional stability, and without enhanced support, the terrorist threat could persist.

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ISIS Deploys Advanced Drones to Escalate War in Puntland

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Terrorist group ramps up drone attacks, targeting Puntland forces with night-vision capabilities.

ISIS in Puntland has escalated its drone warfare, using sophisticated aerial weapons to strike military bases, supply convoys, and frontline troops. Intelligence sources confirm that some of the drones deployed in the Calmiskaad Mountains cost over $9,000 and are equipped with thermal imaging, allowing them to operate effectively at night.

These drones are not just for surveillance—ISIS has weaponized them. Some models drop up to four explosives per mission, while cheaper self-destructive versions target military vehicles and groups of soldiers. The result: Puntland security forces find themselves vulnerable to an airborne enemy they cannot easily counter.

Abdiqani Muse Warsame, a Puntland soldier recovering from a drone attack, described the grim reality. “We can only target the weapons we carry,” he said, highlighting the asymmetry of this new battlefield.

While drone warfare is common among ISIS factions in Syria and Iraq, its expansion into Puntland marks a dangerous shift in tactics. So far, Puntland’s government has yet to deploy an effective counter-drone strategy, leaving troops and supply lines increasingly exposed. If authorities do not act swiftly, ISIS will continue to evolve, transforming Puntland into another theater of high-tech insurgency.

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