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Somalia’s Consultative Council in Disarray: Political Tensions Rise Amid Failed Talks

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The recent meeting of Somalia’s National Consultative Council, aimed at resolving key governance issues, has ended in failure, according to Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre. The talks, which began on October 2, were expected to bring federal and regional leaders together to address pressing national challenges. Instead, the meeting has underscored deepening political divisions within Somalia’s leadership, raising serious concerns about the country’s future stability and governance.

Prime Minister Hamse revealed that the council’s meeting has not produced any meaningful results, and ongoing consultations between the leaders have yet to reach consensus on several critical issues. “The meeting of the National Consultative Council has collapsed since its opening and is still facing difficulty,” Barre admitted, adding that further decisions and official statements would follow once discussions have concluded. This outcome is the latest in a series of failed efforts to unify the federal government and regional administrations, signaling a deepening political crisis.

A Fractured Federal System

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud: Somalia’s Ultimate Betrayer

The failure of the National Consultative Council is a reflection of Somalia’s fractured federal system, which has been plagued by power struggles and mistrust between the central government and regional states. While the council has met nine times during Barre’s tenure as Prime Minister, Barre openly acknowledged that many of these meetings have highlighted the federal government’s weaknesses and inability to foster meaningful cooperation.

Most notably, the absence of two key regional leaders—President Ahmed Madobe of Jubbaland and President Saeed Deni of Puntland—has significantly undermined the latest talks. Madobe walked out of the current meeting, and Deni has boycotted the council altogether for the past year. Both leaders have long been at odds with the federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud’s administration, and their absence from these discussions underscores the growing rift between Mogadishu and the regional states.

Prime Minister Barre’s candid admission of the council’s collapse highlights a grim reality: the Somali government’s efforts to unify the country under a functional federal system are faltering. “We are not committed to the unity and nationalism we wished for Somalis,” he said, adding that “the harsh reality” facing the Somali people must be confronted. Despite efforts to move the country forward, Barre admitted that the government has repeatedly failed in this endeavor.

Political Manipulation and Regional Divisions

One of the core reasons behind the failure of Somalia’s federal system lies in the increasingly autocratic tactics employed by President Mohamoud. Reports have emerged suggesting that Mohamoud’s government has been leveraging international development aid as a political tool to pressure regional leaders into supporting his administration and reelection efforts. This has created an atmosphere of distrust and deepened divisions between Mogadishu and the regional states.

Under Mohamoud’s alleged strategy, regional states that refuse to align with his policies face the risk of losing critical development funding. This has prompted widespread criticism, with regional leaders accusing Mohamoud of using aid as a means of blackmail. In a country heavily reliant on foreign assistance to address basic needs like healthcare, education, and infrastructure, such actions have not only heightened tensions but also jeopardized the well-being of ordinary Somalis.

President Mohamoud’s approach has transformed what should be a collaborative governance model into a power struggle, as regions scramble to secure essential resources. The withdrawal of leaders like Madobe and Deni from the National Consultative Council reflects their dissatisfaction with this centralized grip on power and highlights the growing sentiment of political alienation among Somalia’s federal states.

Implications for Somalia’s Stability

The failure of the National Consultative Council meeting represents more than just a setback in political negotiations—it threatens to unravel the fragile balance that holds Somalia together. Without functional cooperation between the federal government and regional administrations, the country risks sliding back into the chaos and instability that has plagued it for decades.

The international community has long supported Somalia’s rebuilding efforts, providing crucial aid aimed at lifting the nation out of poverty and fostering stability. However, if Mohamoud’s government continues to manipulate this aid for political gain, the long-term consequences could be disastrous. International donors may reconsider their support, particularly if transparency and accountability in the distribution of funds remain absent.

For Somalia, a country still recovering from the ravages of civil war and extremism, political power struggles currently playing out threaten to derail the progress that has been made, leaving Somali citizens to bear the brunt of the fallout. Without access to development assistance, regions already suffering from poor infrastructure and limited public services will face even greater challenges in providing for their populations.

Reflection on Somaliland

In light of the ongoing political crisis, Prime Minister Barre made an unusual but noteworthy appeal to the Somali people. He urged them to study how Somaliland—Somalia’s neighbor, which declared independence in 1991 but remains unrecognized internationally—has managed to maintain unity, independence, and stability within its borders. While Somaliland has faced its own challenges, its ability to avoid internal divisions and build a functional governance system stands in stark contrast to the current disarray in Somalia.

Barre’s remarks suggest that there are valuable lessons to be learned from Somaliland’s approach to governance. He emphasized the need for Somalia to foster greater unity and nationalism, warning that continued division would only serve to further weaken the country.

Somalia’s current political situation is at a critical juncture. With the National Consultative Council talks in disarray and regional divisions growing ever deeper, the federal government faces an uphill battle to restore trust and cooperation. The continued absence of key regional leaders from discussions and the manipulation of development aid are compounding the country’s challenges, pushing Somalia closer to a breaking point.

As Prime Minister Barre candidly admitted, Somalia’s leadership has repeatedly fallen short in its efforts to unite the country. But acknowledging these failures is only the first step. The question now is whether Somalia’s leaders can overcome their differences and work toward a future that prioritizes the well-being of their people over political maneuvering.

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Somali Presidency Accused of Funding Propaganda Against Jubbaland Leader Madobe

Analysis

Trump Considers Moving Gazans to Somaliland, Morocco, or Puntland

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Trump eyes Morocco, Puntland, and Somaliland as destinations for displaced Gazans in a high-stakes power play.

Donald Trump’s latest foreign policy move is nothing short of a geopolitical earthquake—a proposal to forcefully relocate Gazans to Morocco, Puntland, or Somaliland while the U.S. takes control of the Gaza Strip. This plan, revealed in reports following Trump’s White House meeting with Netanyahu, underscores his aggressive push to reshape the Middle East on his own terms.

“They won’t tell me no,” Trump declared, referring to Jordan and Egypt, suggesting that regional powers will have no choice but to comply. He envisions Gaza’s population being “given a fresh, beautiful piece of land,” funded by yet-to-be-named donors, turning this chaotic crisis into what he describes as a clean slate.

Why These Three Destinations?

The selection of Morocco, Puntland, and Somaliland is not random. These territories share one crucial trait: They all need something from the U.S.

Somaliland is desperate for international recognition and economic support. Trump’s deal could serve as their “ticket” to legitimacy on the world stage.

Morocco is engaged in an ongoing battle over the Western Sahara, where U.S. backing could be a game-changer for its claims.

By dangling U.S. diplomatic leverage, Trump is attempting to convert geopolitical desperation into a migration solution.

The High-Risk Gamble

But can these regions even handle such an influx?

Somaliland and Puntland, though stable compared to Somalia, are still fragile and lack the infrastructure to absorb potentially millions of displaced Gazans.

Morocco has been cautious with past refugee waves, and such a move could inflame regional tensions.

The Middle East could erupt if Palestinians are forcibly removed from their homeland, with Hamas and other factions seeing this as a final act of ethnic cleansing.

Trump’s Vision: A Game-Changer or a Disaster?

While Trump presents this as a grand solution to Gaza’s instability, it risks setting off new conflicts across Africa and the Middle East. The idea of the U.S. seizing control of Gaza while reshuffling its population is a throwback to colonial-style power plays, which could backfire spectacularly.

If Trump moves forward with this radical plan, it will be one of the most aggressive geopolitical gambits in modern history, redefining not only the future of Gaza but also U.S. influence in Africa and the Arab world. The only question is: Who will dare to resist?

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Analysis

M23 Ceasefire in DRC: A Fragile Truce or a Tactical Pause?

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As M23 halts its advance, fears loom over the sustainability of peace in eastern Congo.

M23’s sudden ceasefire declaration in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has paused the bloodshed—for now. The rebel group, which has wreaked havoc across the region, claims it is stopping its military operations for humanitarian reasons. But in a battlefield dominated by over 100 armed factions, many see this move as a temporary maneuver rather than a lasting peace effort.

The streets of Goma are tense but active. Aid groups are racing against time to assist thousands wounded and displaced by the recent onslaught of violence between M23 and pro-government militias. Meanwhile, in South Kivu, M23 fighters remain stationed just kilometers from Bukavu, their guns silent—for now.

This ceasefire follows urgent diplomatic intervention from the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Regional Community (SADC), who are now scrambling to forge a political solution. With Kinshasa and Kigali locked in an escalating dispute, regional leaders are set to meet in Tanzania in an attempt to de-escalate the crisis.

But the bigger question remains—is this truce real or just another strategic pause? U.N. agencies report that 770 bodies littered the streets of Goma, with 2,880 more injured, underscoring the brutal toll of this conflict. The Red Cross is struggling to collect the dead, while humanitarian groups plead for the Goma airport to be reopened to deliver medical aid and evacuate the critically wounded.

The biggest threat to this ceasefire? The Wazalendo and other militias not bound by the truce. These groups reject M23’s deal, and without their inclusion in peace talks, the cycle of war in the mineral-rich killing fields of eastern Congo will rage on.

Meanwhile, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, who snubbed last week’s EAC summit, is now expected to face off with Rwandan President Paul Kagame at the upcoming regional crisis meeting. With Rwanda’s support for M23 already verified by the U.N., the chances of a lasting peace remain dangerously slim.

For now, the guns are silent. But in a region where ceasefires are often just another phase in the war, the question isn’t if the fighting will resume—but when.

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Analysis

Dermer Steps In: A Power Move in Gaza Negotiations That Could Reshape the Middle East

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Netanyahu Deploys His Closest Confidant, Ron Dermer, to Take Over High-Stakes Gaza Negotiations

Netanyahu is playing a bold and calculated move by replacing Mossad chief David Barnea with Ron Dermer as Israel’s lead negotiator in the Gaza hostage talks. This is not just a personnel change—it’s a complete strategic shift that could determine whether Israel resumes war or shifts to diplomacy. And make no mistake, Dermer’s appointment isn’t about traditional intelligence-led negotiations; it’s about high-stakes power politics.

Dermer, Netanyahu’s closest confidant, is stepping in at a time when Israel faces a defining moment: Push forward with a hostage deal that would mean ending the war and withdrawing the IDF—or charge full speed ahead into the next phase of Gaza’s destruction. The move tightens Netanyahu’s grip on the negotiations, ensuring that decisions align not just with Israel’s military and strategic interests, but also with his political survival.

Critics argue that by sidelining Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, Netanyahu is ditching intelligence-based negotiations in favor of a purely political strategy. Dermer is no intelligence officer—he’s a political powerhouse, deeply connected to the Trump administration and the power centers of Washington. His presence at the table signals that these talks are no longer just about hostages and ceasefires—they are about Gaza’s future, Israel’s long-term dominance, and a broader Middle East realignment.

With Trump poised to take a more hands-on role, and Saudi-Israeli normalization hanging in the balance, Dermer brings something Barnea never could—a direct channel to Washington, a political vision that extends beyond the battlefield, and a no-holds-barred commitment to Netanyahu’s grand strategy for Gaza.

Is this a calculated derailment of the ceasefire deal, or a masterstroke to expand the negotiations into something much bigger? One thing is certain: Netanyahu is taking full control. And with Dermer in the driver’s seat, this isn’t just about hostages anymore—it’s about reshaping the entire Middle East.

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Analysis

Trump’s Middle East Playbook: Expanding the Canvas to Cut a Deal

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As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the stage is set for another high-stakes negotiation in the Middle East. Drawing from his 2017 strategy, Trump appears ready to broaden the diplomatic canvas to force movement on the Gaza war, hostage deals, and regional realignments.

Trump’s Game Plan: A Bigger Deal for a Bigger Concession

Trump’s Middle East policy has always been defined by thinking beyond traditional frameworks. In 2017, he abandoned the two-state orthodoxy, signaling openness to alternatives. Now, he seems poised to redefine the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by weaving it into a larger regional deal, which could involve Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states.

The sticking point in the hostage deal negotiations remains Hamas’ demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war—something Netanyahu has categorically rejected. Trump’s approach? Offer Israel incentives to compromise by tying the deal to something far bigger: Saudi normalization, security guarantees, and population redistribution.

The “Refugee Relocation” Bargain

Trump’s most controversial proposal—convincing third countries to take in Gazan refugees—aims to ease pressure on Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. If Israel agrees to a ceasefire and limited withdrawal, Trump could leverage U.S. influence to pressure Gulf states into absorbing displaced Palestinians. This would not only weaken Hamas’ grip but also neutralize domestic Israeli opposition to a broader settlement.

Saudi Normalization: Netanyahu’s Escape Route?

Trump may also revive the Abraham Accords momentum, offering Saudi recognition of Israel as the ultimate prize—provided Israel makes limited concessions on Gaza’s governance. In 2020, Trump convinced Netanyahu to freeze West Bank annexation in exchange for peace deals with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Could he pull off a similar trade-off in 2025?

Netanyahu’s Political Dilemma

Unlike 2017, Netanyahu now faces serious constraints:

  • A weakened domestic position due to judicial conflicts and the ICC arrest warrant threat.
  • A right-wing coalition that opposes any compromise with the Palestinians.
  • Hamas’ continued presence in Gaza, which complicates any ceasefire agreement.

While Trump’s deal-making instincts suggest a grand bargain is on the table, Netanyahu’s ability to sell it at home is highly questionable. If he accepts too many concessions, his government could collapse—but if he rejects Trump’s expanded vision, he risks alienating his most powerful ally.

Ultimately, Trump is playing the long game, and if his strategy of “expanding the canvas” succeeds, the Middle East could see a historic power shift—one that reshapes alliances, redraws battle lines, and alters the fate of Gaza’s population. The question remains: Will Netanyahu gamble on a bigger deal, or will his political reality force him into a corner?

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Analysis

Senior ISIS Commander Captured in Puntland as U.S. Airstrikes Cripple Somalia’s Jihadist Network

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Security forces in Puntland have captured Abdirahman Shirwac Aw-Saciid, the leader of the group’s assassination squad and a key operative in its extortion network. The arrest comes just two days after U.S. airstrikes targeted senior ISIS leadership, intensifying pressure on the group amid a growing Puntland offensive against both ISIS and Al-Shabaab.

A Crumbling Jihadist Network

Once seen as a fringe element compared to Al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia has rapidly expanded in recent years, fueled by foreign fighters and an enhanced financial system. The group has increasingly used sophisticated tactics, including booby-trapped vehicles, signaling an evolution in their operational capabilities.

Shirwac, also known as “Laahoor”, was captured in the Cal Miskaad mountains, a key hideout in Puntland’s Bari region, where the group has been entrenched. His role in assassination operations and extortion made him one of the most dangerous figures within Somalia’s ISIS faction.

Puntland’s Offensive and U.S. Military Support

The Puntland state government launched a full-scale offensive in December, targeting both ISIS and its longtime rival, Al-Shabaab. The Somali government, still struggling with decades of instability, sees Puntland’s campaign as a critical front in the battle against terrorism.

Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes on Saturday in the Golis Mountains dealt another devastating blow to ISIS-Somalia, reportedly killing multiple high-ranking operatives. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized that these strikes were part of a broader strategy to dismantle ISIS’ global network.

The Bigger Picture: Somalia’s Security Crisis

While Al-Shabaab still remains the dominant jihadist force in Somalia, ISIS-Somalia has carved out a deadly foothold in Puntland and the northeast, leveraging extortion, smuggling, and foreign funding. The Somali government, backed by regional forces and U.S. military support, is racing against time to prevent ISIS from becoming an even greater threat.

The capture of Laahoor represents a significant victory for Puntland security forces. However, whether this momentum can be sustained—and whether Somalia can prevent an ISIS resurgence—remains the ultimate test. The war is far from over, but the tides may be turning against ISIS in Somalia.

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Analysis

Somaliland’s Fire Crisis: Leadership, Recovery, and Repeated Failures

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Somaliland’s markets are burning—and with them, the livelihoods of thousands. The Gobonnimo Market fire is just the latest in a series of catastrophic blazes that have devastated Hargeisa’s commercial hubs. Waaheen Market (2022), Wajaale Market (2023), and now Gobonnimo Market (2025)—all tell the same story of poor infrastructure, inadequate fire response, and a lack of preventive measures.

President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Cirro, alongside senior government officials, visited the scene, expressing sorrow and pledging government support. His call for national unity and fundraising reflects Somaliland’s resilience, yet the larger question remains unanswered—why do these fires keep happening?

The Waaheen Market inferno of 2022—the worst in decades—took 16 hours to control, destroying 2,000 shops, 100 buildings, and displacing countless families. In 2023, the Wajaale Market fire caused losses worth $5.3 million, once again proving Somaliland’s economic hubs are high-risk zones without adequate fire protection.

The repeated devastation has sparked public frustration, with demands for transparent investigations into causes, accountability, and prevention. The formation of a technical committee to assess damages is a delayed reaction, not a preventive solution. Somaliland’s economy relies on trade, yet its commercial centers remain vulnerable to fires that could be avoided with better urban planning and safety protocols.

Without modernized fire safety regulations, clear urban zoning, and rapid response infrastructure, Somaliland will continue to relive this nightmare—again and again. The government’s next step must not be just compensation and damage control; it must be prevention.

Hargeisa Market Blaze Exposes Infrastructure Failures

 

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Analysis

EU Courts Trump with China Strategy Amid Greenland Shockwaves

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The European Union is making a calculated move to appease President Donald Trump by offering a united front on China, hoping to salvage strained transatlantic relations. With Trump staking an audacious territorial claim on Greenland—a protectorate of Denmark—and threatening devastating 20% tariffs on European goods, Brussels is scrambling to find common ground before the relationship implodes.

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has laid out a proposal to strengthen economic security in partnership with Washington, emphasizing the shared challenge of China’s state-subsidized economic model. This echoes Trump’s first-term collaboration between the U.S., EU, and Japan to counter Beijing’s trade practices, which Brussels now sees as a crucial bargaining chip to keep Trump engaged.

The EU is not just talking trade—it’s offering cash flow. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already floated the purchase of more U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reduce reliance on Russian gas, a move designed to win favor with Trump while securing energy independence.

But will this gamble work? Trump thrives on disruption, and his territorial ambitions over Greenland signal a willingness to bulldoze alliances to reshape global power dynamics. While Brussels tries to pivot toward a mutually beneficial economic security pact, Trump’s instinct for unilateral action remains the wild card. With an EU-China showdown looming in May, the next few months could determine the fate of Europe’s precarious balancing act between Washington and Beijing. Trump holds the cards—will Brussels play the right hand?

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Analysis

Rwanda-Backed Rebels Tighten Grip on Eastern Congo, Threaten March to Kinshasa

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M23 rebels, emboldened by Rwandan military support, have taken control of Goma, eastern Congo’s largest city, and are threatening to advance on Kinshasa, escalating one of Africa’s most dangerous conflicts. With 4,000 Rwandan troops reportedly backing them, the rebels have far more firepower than in 2012, when they briefly seized Goma before withdrawing under international pressure.

Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi has rejected any negotiations, calling for a nationwide military mobilization while ordering his defense minister to burn any proposals for talks. The fear of a full-scale regional war is growing, as tensions between Rwanda and South Africa escalate after 13 South African peacekeepers were killed in the violence. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has issued a veiled warning, stating that “if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”

Goma has fallen into chaos, with dead bodies in the streets, widespread looting, and thousands of government troops surrendering or fleeing. Residents describe soldiers shedding their uniforms, dropping their weapons, and either escaping to Rwanda or seeking refuge at U.N. bases. Meanwhile, in South Kivu, where the rebels are advancing, fear grips the population as gunfire and explosions draw closer to Bukavu.

The U.S. and U.N. have called for a ceasefire, but Congo’s government remains defiant, seeing Rwanda’s aggression as an existential threat. With $24 trillion in untapped minerals at stake, the battle for Congo’s east is no longer just about rebel groups—it is a geopolitical proxy war with massive consequences for Africa and the global economy.

The clock is ticking, and the risk of all-out war is closer than ever.

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