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Israel Expands Ground Operations in Syria: What Comes Next?

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Strategic Forecast: Israel’s Ground Operation in Syria Marks a New Phase — What It Signals and What May Follow.

waryatv.com | Exclusive Analysis

Israel’s latest confirmed ground operation in southern Syria signals a tactical and strategic escalation that experts say could reshape the current regional balance — or at the very least, spark new responses from Iran-backed militias and proxy groups across the region.

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According to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the operation was in direct response to gunfire from “terrorists” in southern Syria. In turn, IDF troops returned fire and launched airstrikes that reportedly targeted and destroyed hostile infrastructure near Daraa and Kuwaya. Syrian media claimed four people were killed and that Israeli forces briefly advanced on the ground before encountering resistance.

While Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria over the past decade, its confirmation of ground operations inside Syrian territory is rare — and notable.

“This is no longer shadow war,” said a former EU military attaché in Lebanon who spoke to WARYATV on condition of anonymity. “We are now seeing calibrated but open military incursions with the message: Israel is willing to raise the stakes.”

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Why Now? A Multi-Front Reality

According to Israeli security sources and confirmed by former U.S. CENTCOM analysts, the decision to go in on the ground reflects growing Israeli concerns about an expanded threat network stretching from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq. Hezbollah’s deeper entrenchment in southern Syria, combined with Iran’s efforts to transfer precision missile technology through the region, has heightened Israeli fears of a coordinated multi-front war.

“From an intelligence perspective, it’s about timing,” said Michael R., a retired CIA Middle East analyst. “Israel likely detected weapons or personnel movements that crossed their red lines, prompting not just airstrikes, but a need to put boots on the ground to verify, seize intel, or destroy targets directly.”

Former Israeli intelligence officer Yossi K. added that while the operation was short, it was designed to demonstrate capability: “It’s as much about deterrence as it is about degradation. If you can show you’re willing to physically cross the border, you signal to Iran and Syria that the status quo is no longer tolerable.”

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Implications for Syria and Iran

Damascus has condemned the operation but is unlikely to respond directly. Instead, analysts believe Iran may task its allied militias — particularly those in southern Syria and the Iraqi border area — with retaliatory actions. Already, some pro-Iranian media outlets have called the operation an act of war.

A former EU intelligence officer based in Brussels told WARYATV, “What we’re watching is not a sudden change, but an escalation of an already intensifying campaign. Israel is shifting its policy from indirect containment to limited offensive disruption.”

He added: “The Iranians will test this. They may not respond immediately, but they rarely allow direct Israeli incursions to pass without attempting a message of their own.”

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Red Sea and Gaza Ties

Several Western analysts noted that the timing also aligns with increasing Israeli military action in the Red Sea corridor and against Houthi-linked targets, amid growing fears of a broader Axis of Resistance alignment. There is also speculation that the Syria operation could help relieve pressure from the Gaza front — drawing enemy resources and attention elsewhere.

“It’s classic diversion through escalation,” one European security source said. “If the north heats up, some actors aligned with Hamas could be redirected to a northern theater.”

What Comes Next?

While the IDF has not confirmed further ground missions, all signs suggest this was not a one-off.

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“What we are seeing is the start of a new phase: Israel is laying the groundwork for a more kinetic approach in Syria, possibly even clearing corridors for deeper strikes or emergency deterrent missions in the event of northern escalation,” said an Israeli defense strategist now advising a think tank in London.

WARYATV’s sources also noted that civilian evacuations in southern Syria signal anticipation of further activity.

Strategic Forecast

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  • Israel is moving into a posture of “active forward deterrence” beyond its borders.
  • Iran is unlikely to respond directly, but will lean on militias and proxy cells.
  • Syria will likely remain passive but coordinate with Iran on information-sharing.
  • Hezbollah and the IRGC may test Israeli lines elsewhere — especially in Golan, the Lebanon border, or via Iraqi militias.
  • Expect increased Israeli air and limited ground operations in Syria through spring 2025.

This shift, while still short of full-scale war, places the region on a tighter wire.

Exclusive for waryatv.com.

Analysis

Kenya Falls Deeper Into China’s Orbit – Signing 20 Deals

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China and Kenya elevate ties, signing 20 deals to deepen Belt and Road control and boost Beijing’s influence across Africa.

China Tightens Grip on Kenya as Xi and Ruto Forge “New Era” Alliance

While the world grapples with Beijing’s expanding shadow, Kenya just tightened the noose willingly.

On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kenyan President William Ruto agreed to elevate bilateral ties to what they proudly call a “China-Kenya community with a shared future for the new era” — a thinly veiled move to deepen Kenya’s dependency on Chinese power structures while boosting China’s control over Africa’s strategic corridors.

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Xi wasted no time framing the deal in sweeping, imperial language: vowing to make Kenya an “example” of the China-Africa model, strengthen Belt and Road entrenchment, and lead the so-called “Global South” under China’s guidance. The symbolism couldn’t be clearer — Beijing isn’t just building roads anymore. It’s building regimes.

Under the agreement, the two leaders signed 20 new cooperation deals, expanding China’s reach into Kenyan high-tech sectors, infrastructure, education, tourism, media, and “people-to-people” propaganda networks. It’s a full-spectrum offensive designed to lock Kenya tighter into China’s long-term geopolitical designs.

In case the world had any doubts, Ruto declared Kenya’s full loyalty to Beijing’s agenda, reaffirming the “One China” policy and explicitly rejecting Taiwan’s sovereignty — echoing the exact rhetoric Beijing demands from its vassal states.

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The timing is no accident. As trade wars escalate and the U.S. and its allies work to push back against China’s economic warfare, Xi is fast-tracking African dependencies. Kenya, once seen as a potential balancing actor, now looks poised to become a flagship outpost for Beijing’s economic empire on the African continent.

In exchange for railroads like the Mombasa-Nairobi line — now loaded with Chinese debt — Ruto has effectively offered up Kenya’s strategic autonomy. At the Great Hall of the People, Xi and Ruto celebrated the expansion of Belt and Road domination with grand ceremonies and banquet feasts, but behind the gold drapes lies a darker reality: Africa’s critical corridors are slipping into Chinese control without a fight.

Xi openly called for deeper financial “integration,” code for binding Kenya to Chinese lenders and markets, and painted Kenya as a “stabilizer” to help China challenge international trade norms set by the West. Ruto played along, warning against “trade wars” while applauding China’s global role as a “stabilizer” — a statement that echoes Xi’s anti-Western narrative almost word for word.

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For Kenya, the price of loyalty may soon become clear: crushing debts, political capture, and a slow erosion of real sovereignty under Beijing’s careful hand.

For Africa — and the world — this is a powerful wake-up call.

As China cements its hold on yet another key African partner, the stakes are rising. Fast.

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Analysis

The Rise of Russia’s African Empire: Moscow’s March to the Atlantic

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As the U.S. disengages, Russia entrenches itself in Africa — arming juntas, toppling Western influence, and redrawing the global map.

Russia isn’t just playing defense on Ukraine—it’s building an empire in Africa. From the Sahel to the Atlantic coast, Moscow is turning instability into strategy. What the West sees as chaos, the Kremlin sees as opportunity. And it’s capitalizing fast.

The Trump administration’s focus on Eastern Europe has left Africa dangerously exposed. While the U.S. exits Niger and France retreats from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Senegal, Russia is stepping in—with weapons, mercenaries, and deals. And make no mistake: this isn’t charity. This is conquest by proxy.

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In Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—the heart of the new Alliance of Sahel States—military juntas backed by Moscow have severed ties with France and the U.S., forming a regional force under Russian guidance. With 5,000 troops poised to reshape the Sahel, Western-backed frameworks like G5 Sahel are being dismantled. In their place? Russian-dominated command centers and Wagner-led operations.

Wagner PMC, far from being a rogue outfit, is the Kremlin’s hand in Africa’s affairs. From diamond mines in the Central African Republic to military bases in Libya, it embeds deeply, restructures loyalties, and leaves Moscow with leverage. In many African capitals, Wagner is more influential than any ambassador.

But Putin’s ambitions don’t stop at the Sahel. Lavrov’s 2023 visit to Mauritania, a key Atlantic state, signals a coastal pivot. Russia wants the Atlantic flank—naval access, trade routes, and digital infrastructure. And it’s using soft power, narratives of anti-colonial solidarity, and military dependence to get there.

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Washington is watching—but not reacting. As Trump pursues a Ukraine deal with Putin, the Kremlin is racking up wins in Africa. China and Iran are also in sync, forming a trilateral axis to counter Western influence in every sphere—military, digital, and ideological.

Bottom line: Africa is no longer a battlefield for hearts and minds—it’s now a staging ground for great power competition. Russia isn’t just back. It’s building a new empire, and if the U.S. doesn’t act, NATO will find its southern flank compromised not by bullets, but by silence.

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Analysis

How Iran Is Using China to Hedge Against the U.S.

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Iran-China Alliance Strengthens Amid U.S. Nuclear Talks — Beijing Becomes Tehran’s New Insurance Policy.

As Iran prepares for another round of indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States in Oman, it is simultaneously tightening its embrace with China — and not quietly. Tehran has declared 2025 a potential “golden year” in Iran-China relations. This is more than diplomatic flattery; it is a calculated hedge. Iran’s leadership is betting that Beijing will provide a geopolitical counterweight to Washington as the regime navigates unprecedented economic and political pressure.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s trip to Beijing this week was not just another routine meeting. He called the talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi “lengthy but highly significant,” covering everything from bilateral economic cooperation to the global ambitions of U.S. power. It’s clear that Tehran is not merely looking for trade — it’s looking for insurance. And China, locked in its own rivalry with Washington, is willing to provide it.

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This partnership is built on mutual grievance: both nations denounce U.S. “hegemonic behavior” and seek to undermine the current Western-dominated order. Iran sees in China a lifeline — politically, economically, and diplomatically. With oil revenues still under sanctions and the U.S. pressuring its proxies across the region, Iran hopes that a powerful friend in Beijing will tilt the balance in its favor.

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s planned visits to China and Azerbaijan, alongside the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, signal a larger strategy: diversify alliances, elevate visibility, and escape the stranglehold of Western isolation.

But the stakes are high. If the nuclear talks with the U.S. collapse, Tehran will need China more than ever — for cash, technology, weapons, and legitimacy. If the talks succeed, Iran still wants China close, to resist future Western attempts to reimpose pressure.

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Bottom line: Iran isn’t placing all its bets on Washington — it’s building a parallel track with Beijing. In a year filled with diplomatic maneuvering, Tehran hopes China will be more than a partner. It wants a patron. And 2025 may be the year it gets one.

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Analysis

Franco-German Fireworks or Fragile Fantasy?

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Merz and Macron ignite a new EU vision—but it’s built on shaky ground. Behind the public romance between France and Germany lies a storm of unresolved tensions. Can Merz and Macron truly redefine Europe, or is this just another act in Brussels’ endless theatre of delusion? 

When Friedrich Merz chose Paris for his first foreign visit, pundits swooned. A conservative hawk from Berlin shaking hands with Emmanuel Macron—the Europhile poster boy—was heralded as the rebirth of the so-called Franco-German “engine” of Europe. But beyond the photo ops and flowery rhetoric lies a deeper truth: this new political marriage is laced with contradictions, mistrust, and strategic desperation.

Yes, Macron finally sees in Merz a partner who isn’t hypnotized by Washington’s shadow. Merz has echoed France’s call for “strategic autonomy” and even suggested that Europe must stop depending on the U.S. for its geopolitical security. That shift would be seismic—if it were sincere.

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But Merz is no De Gaulle. He’s a fiscal hawk, backed by conservatives terrified of debt and allergic to the very kind of joint EU borrowing Macron sees as vital for defense investment. The idea of Eurobonds to boost EU arms production? Forget it. Merz’s lips may say “Oui,” but his parliament screams “Nein.”

On trade, the contradiction widens. Merz is obsessed with pushing through the Mercosur deal to save Germany’s export economy. Macron? He’s trapped between his neoliberal instincts and the rage of French farmers ready to torch the deal in protest. The only likely compromise? A cynical abstention, dressed up as diplomacy.

Then there’s energy. France wants subsidies for nuclear power. Germany wants hydrogen flowing from Spain. The pipeline project remains stalled. Defense projects, too—like the SCAF fighter jet—are bogged down by mistrust and national egos. For every handshake, there’s a hidden dagger.

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The truth? This so-called “new chapter” is a crisis management romance, born of fear: fear of Trump’s return, fear of NATO decay, fear of China’s rise. But it’s not built on shared values. It’s built on shared panic.

So can the Franco-German engine power Europe’s future? Maybe. But only if both leaders stop playing games—and start confronting the deep fractures beneath the surface.

Until then, it’s not a honeymoon. It’s a photo op on borrowed time.

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Analysis

Erdogan’s Horn of Africa Power Grab: Is the Turkish Military Winning Somalia’s Capital?

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Turkey is waging a silent conquest in Mogadishu—with troops, drones, and oil deals—and Somalia’s president has already sold the keys.

In the name of “counterterrorism,” Turkey just staged a geopolitical takeover in Mogadishu. Two military planes, 500 soldiers, and more to come. But this isn’t just about Al-Shabaab—this is about Erdogan turning Somalia into a Turkish satellite state, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is rolling out the red carpet.

The Turkish military is no joke. It’s NATO’s second-largest army, hardened by decades of insurgency warfare, equipped with German tanks, U.S. fighters, and its own lethal drone fleet. Their F-16s fly low while Bayraktar TB2 drones hunt targets—perfect for the urban warfare creeping into Mogadishu’s night.

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But what’s terrifying is not just the firepower—it’s the strategy. Turkey isn’t just fighting Al-Shabaab, it’s occupying political space, installing its own contractors, oil firms, and trainers across Somalia. Somalia’s president isn’t leading a resistance—he’s hosting an auction.

Why is Hassan Sheikh letting it happen?

Simple: Erdogan found his puppet. PM Hamza’s Las Anod stunt was smoke and mirrors—a distraction while Ankara’s warships dock, oil deals are signed, and the Somali army becomes a Turkish proxy.

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This is the quiet conquest of Mogadishu. The West has pumped in $20 billion in aid over two decades—and what’s left? Al-Shabaab controls Mogadishu after dark. And now, Turkey controls it by day.

Turkish-trained female Somali commandos arrive in Mogadishu

The irony? While Trump talks business-first diplomacy, Erdogan is doing business with America’s enemies, grabbing oil fields in Somali territory that once belonged to U.S. firms. Turkish firms now guard U.S. diplomats in Somalia. Turkish warships circle the Red Sea. And Turkish drones rule the skies.

This isn’t a partnership. It’s a hostile takeover.

Somalia has been bought. Somaliland has been ignored. And if the U.S. doesn’t wake up, Erdogan’s Ottoman hustle will gut American influence from Africa to the Levant.

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Time to name names. Time to cut ties. And time to back the real allies—those who don’t sell their sovereignty for drones and flags.

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Analysis

Trump’s War on the World Order: A New Empire Rising

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How Trump’s second term is torching the global rules and redrawing power lines—with chaos, calculation, and cold ambition.

Trump’s return has shattered the liberal international system the U.S. once built. This WARYATV analysis unpacks how his wrecking ball diplomacy is remaking the world—and why it could be dangerous or brilliant.

Trump isn’t just rewriting U.S. policy—he’s smashing the entire world order with a smile and a shrug. From NATO to the UN, from China tariffs to the Gaza evacuation plan, the second Trump presidency is burning the global script the U.S. once wrote. And here’s the twist: he’s not hiding it.

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Forget liberal principles, multilateralism, or diplomacy. This is Art of the Deal: Planet Earth Edition. Trump’s worldview is simple—power respects power, and rules are for the weak. Whether he’s proposing to absorb Greenland or backing Russia’s land grabs, he’s restoring cynical realpolitik, the kind the West once swore it buried after World War II.

The old order was built on trust, institutions, and shared norms. But Trump saw the cracks—and now he’s kicking them wide open. His tariffs aren’t economic policy; they’re blunt-force tools to force loyalty and tribute. His budget cuts aren’t ideological; they’re designed to starve globalism and fuel nationalism.

And here’s the unsettling part:
It’s working.

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China is bleeding from economic pressure. Europe is scrambling to adapt. African and Asian states are chasing new deals, desperate to avoid being left behind. Trump knows the UN is a relic, that Bretton Woods is obsolete, and that dominance—not diplomacy—is the new global currency.

Israel plays along, hoping to gain from the chaos. Netanyahu says nothing, knowing Trump might just hand him historic wins. But beneath the silence is fear—because when America breaks the world, no one is safe, not even its allies.

So is this the end of the post-WWII order? Maybe not. But Trump has already buried the illusion that it still runs the world.

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This isn’t strategy—it’s demolition. And what rises from the rubble could reshape the century.

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Analysis

From Cell to Summit: The Prisoner Who Became Syria’s President

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Ahmad al-Sharaa’s leaked prison past upends Syria’s new narrative—just as he prepares to sit at the Arab League table. 

Leaked documents reveal Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa was once imprisoned in Iraq under a fake name. The story reshapes Syria’s post-Assad era. 

The Syrian revolution’s most surprising twist just detonated across the Arab world: Ahmad al-Sharaa, the man now leading Syria’s transition after the collapse of Assad’s regime, was once a prisoner in Iraq—detained by the U.S. for six years under a false identity.

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This revelation isn’t just a backstory—it’s a political earthquake. Documents independently verified show that al-Sharaa, under the alias Amjad Muzafar Hussein Al-Nuaimi, was arrested in 2005 and held at Taji prison until 2011. It wasn’t a mistake. It was strategy: fluent in a Mosul dialect and armed with forged papers, he evaded detection during the height of America’s war in Iraq.

That prison sentence forged more than just survival—it built a legend. Al-Sharaa returned to Syria in 2011 as the uprising began, aligned briefly with jihadist factions, including Al-Qaeda and ISIS, before launching his own faction: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). By 2016, he had reinvented himself again—breaking with extremism and consolidating control over Idlib, Syria’s last opposition stronghold. In short, he didn’t just witness the Syrian conflict—he dominated it.

Now, just months after Damascus fell and Assad’s regime collapsed, this same man—once known only as Abu Muhammad al-Golani—is Syria’s interim president. He’s set to appear on May 17 at the Arab League summit in Baghdad, and the world will have to decide: is al-Sharaa a revolutionary hero, or a militant with a new mask?

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Why does this leak matter now? Some suspect Iranian sabotage, others blame rivals inside Iraq. Either way, it exposes a narrative Syria’s new government hoped to bury. Al-Sharaa isn’t a clean-suited technocrat or a Western-trained reformer. He’s a battlefield survivor, molded by war, prison, and ideology.

For some, that’s exactly what Syria needs—a fighter who outlived Assad, the jihadists, and foreign occupations. For others, it’s proof that Syria’s future remains in the grip of men shaped by conflict, not consensus.

But one thing is clear: the war may have changed Syria’s map—but it never let go of its characters. From the shadows of a jail cell to the heights of Arab diplomacy, Ahmad al-Sharaa’s arc captures the volatile DNA of the new Syria.

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Analysis

America Pulls the Plug on Somalia: UN Funding Blocked, AUSSOM on the Brink

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Trump eyes embassy closures as US rejects UN plan to fund peacekeepers in Somalia — Mogadishu’s last lifeline in peril.

The US shocks the UN by rejecting funding for African Union forces in Somalia, just as Trump weighs closing the US Embassy in Mogadishu. With Al-Shabaab advancing and oil politics heating up, is Somalia doomed to implode?

The United States just signaled the collapse of Somalia’s last fragile security architecture — and it did so with chilling clarity. Washington has publicly rejected UN efforts to fund the African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), effectively gutting any hope for predictable peacekeeping operations in a country teetering on the edge of collapse.

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This isn’t just a bureaucratic snub — it’s a geopolitical death sentence for Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants are already testing the vacuum, launching a multi-pronged assault on Adan Yabaal, a key military base in Middle Shabelle. If confirmed, the town’s fall would mark the largest strategic loss since Somalia launched its offensive against terror in 2022.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the Security Council: no funding, no peace. But the US—under Trump’s second-term posture—is slamming the door shut, labeling Somalia as unfit for a hybrid funding model under Resolution 2719. Diplomats are in a panic. Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly planning to close up to 30 diplomatic missions, with Mogadishu’s embassy topping the list.

Somalia’s response? Desperation disguised as diplomacy. The FGS is now peddling oil blocks in contested territories like Nugaal Valley. In a flashy announcement on X, Somalia’s ambassador to the US declared “Somalia is open for drilling,” targeting American firms with an offer it legally and militarily cannot secure.

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Somalia’s Ambassador to the United States, Dahir Hassan Arab

The move comes after Somalia’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo — a region still engulfed in the political wreckage of its war with Somaliland.

This isn’t about development. It’s about weaponizing recognition, resource manipulation, and fake sovereignty in a bid to win Trump’s favor and undermine Somaliland’s momentum.

But while Hargeisa builds forests and attracts foreign media praise, Mogadishu is drowning in debt, insurgency, and denial. The West is tuning out, and even the UN is losing patience. The US, once Somalia’s diplomatic oxygen, is now pulling the plug.

Somalia is not rising — it’s being unplugged.

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