In an unexpected diplomatic alignment, a growing number of global and regional powers—including the United States, Iran, Turkey, and even Russia—appear to be backing a draft peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The rare convergence of interests could mark a historic shift in the South Caucasus, a region marred by decades of bloody conflict and geopolitical rivalries.
US-Led Diplomacy and the Role of Trump Doctrine
The United States, under Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff, has emerged as a key architect of the peace initiative. The U.S. State Department praised the draft treaty as a “historic opportunity,” framing it as part of President Trump’s broader vision of a “more peaceful world.”
According to State Department officials, the peace agreement could signal a turning point in the U.S.’s post-Afghanistan strategy of creating new security architectures through economic diplomacy, bilateral partnerships, and conflict resolution in flashpoint regions.
Steve Witkoff, now a frequent flyer between Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow, has been instrumental in aligning disparate actors toward this agreement. His involvement in the Black Sea maritime truce and Gaza ceasefire negotiations has raised speculation that Trump’s administration is attempting a sweeping diplomatic pivot ahead of U.S. elections.
Turkey, Iran, and the Economic Angle
Turkey, traditionally a staunch ally of Baku, has publicly backed the deal. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s meetings in Washington underscored Ankara’s renewed focus on regional stability and energy security.
More surprising is the enthusiastic support from Iran. Despite a history of alignment with Armenia, Iran is now pushing for economic engagement with both sides. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized Tehran’s vision of a North-South trade corridor that could link the Caspian to the Persian Gulf, using peace in the South Caucasus as a gateway to regional development.
This corridor, vital to Iran’s long-term economic strategy amidst sanctions, would benefit enormously from a normalized Armenia-Azerbaijan relationship. Tehran’s pragmatic shift appears to accept Azerbaijan’s dominant military position following the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Russia: A Quiet Endorsement
Russian President Vladimir Putin was reportedly briefed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the progress of peace talks. While Moscow’s role remains muted, analysts believe the Kremlin sees the deal as a way to prevent further Western encroachment in its traditional sphere of influence, particularly at a time when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and facing growing Chinese influence.
Russia’s muted but notable support may also reflect its pivot to managing crises with minimal cost—letting regional actors take the lead while retaining leverage.
For Armenia, the deal is a high-stakes wager. After a series of military defeats, including the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Yerevan is under intense domestic and international pressure. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s willingness to negotiate may reflect a hard-nosed recognition of Armenia’s constrained strategic position.
Iranian and U.S. diplomacy offer lifelines: economic corridors, trade incentives, and normalization with neighbors. But risks remain. Pashinyan’s political survival may hinge on whether the treaty delivers real security and economic dividends.
If ratified, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal could catalyze further regional diplomacy. Observers note that its success could spill over into progress on the Syria and Ukraine fronts, particularly amid rumors of a Black Sea naval accord and deeper Saudi-Iran cooperation.
Even the Vatican has weighed in, with Pope Francis supporting peace in the region. Such symbolic endorsements add moral weight to what may become a major diplomatic win for Trump-era foreign policy.
Conclusion
A convergence of strategic needs, economic aspirations, and realpolitik is driving unlikely partners to embrace peace in the South Caucasus. For now, the peace treaty remains a draft. But the rare alignment of U.S., Iranian, Turkish, and Russian interests signals a moment of opportunity.
If sealed, the treaty could redefine power dynamics in the region, offering a new model for conflict resolution in a multipolar world.
