The Trump administration has made clear that Europe can no longer count on automatic American support against Russian aggression. In just three months, Washington has upended decades of U.S. foreign policy—scaling back its military presence on the continent and pressing for an end to the Ukraine war, even at the cost of Ukrainian territory.
“Europe has been living for 80 years in a situation in which peace was given for granted,” observes Roberto Cingolani, CEO of defense giant Leonardo and former Italian minister. “Now, all of a sudden … we realize that peace must be defended.” Indeed, as Europe braces for a potential Kremlin push, NATO members find themselves in a race against time to rebuild forces hollowed out since the Cold War’s end.
Britain, France and Germany have modestly increased defense budgets after mid-2010s austerity, but experts warn it may take years before new tanks, aircraft and troops reach the front lines. The International Institute for Strategic Studies bluntly concluded last year that Russia’s high casualty rates in Ukraine “painfully highlighted European countries’ current shortcomings.”
Closer to Moscow’s border, Poland has surged ahead—doubling its defense spending and hosting U.S. forces as a bulwark against Russia. Washington praises Warsaw as “the model ally on the continent,” though Warsaw’s motivation stems as much from historical fears of Russian domination as a desire to curry U.S. favor.
The U.S. still maintains roughly 80,000 troops in Europe—more than all but eight European nations—but that force is a fraction of the nearly half-million American servicemembers stationed there at the height of the Cold War. Forward-deployed U.S. bases in Germany, Italy and Poland undergird NATO’s deterrent, while naval and air facilities in Turkey, Greece and Italy project power into the Middle East.
Above all, Europe relies on America’s strategic nuclear arsenal. Britain and France together hold barely one-tenth of Russia’s warheads, but U.S. stockpiles in Europe still roughly match Moscow’s. Those warheads have deterred President Vladimir Putin’s more extreme threats—yet they too now hang in the balance as Washington pivots its focus toward the Indo-Pacific.
Eighty years after D-Day, Europe can no longer assume that U.S. guarantees will hold. Unless NATO capitals dramatically accelerate defense spending, modernize forces and shore up collective resolve, the continent may soon find itself—and its values—on the front line alone.
