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Somalia

How do you solve a problem like Somalia?

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This Thursday, the great and the good will descend on London to discuss Somalia, a country that has topped the Fragile States Index for eight of the past 10 years.

By Ibrahim Qasim
Africa editor, Waryatv News

The London Somalia Conference, co-chaired by the UK, Somalia and the United Nations, will be held in Lancaster House, a grand mansion in the exclusive district of St James’s. Many of the delegates will stay in swish hotels nearby.

This is the third such London gathering since 2012, and there is an element of “cut and paste” to its agenda, which focuses on security, governance and the economy.

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The official conference document emphasizes how much progress has been made.

But its description of Somalia from the time of the first meeting still applies: “Chronically unstable and ungoverned”, and threatened by Islamist militants, piracy and famine.

Piracy, which at its height cost $7bn (£5.4bn) a year, is much diminished, although there has been a recent resurgence.

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US drones, African Union troops, Western “security advisers” and Somali forces have pushed al-Shabab from most major towns, although the jihadists still control many areas and attack at will.

A recent electoral process resulted in a new and – for the time being – popular president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, nicknamed Farmajo, and more female and youth representation in parliament.

Life-threatening malnutrition

Somalia is in a “pre-famine” stage rather than the full-blown disaster of 2011, in which more than 250,000 people died.

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But it is perhaps surprising that the current water shortage will not be a headline topic at the conference.

The country is in the grip of its worst drought in decades. Four successive rainy seasons have failed.

Two severely malnourished children in Baidoa regional hospital
Severely malnourished children in Baidoa regional hospital

One boy, dressed in purple, stares blankly at the wall. “His brain is damaged due to a prolonged lack of adequate nutrition,” says Dr Yusuf Ali, who returned home to Somalia from the UK two years ago. “He will never recover.”

According to UNICEF, the number of children who are or will be acutely malnourished in 2017 is up by 50% from the beginning of the year, to a total of 1.4 million, including 275,000 for whom the condition is or will be life-threatening.

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Most are too sick to go to school or help herd animals, making the life of the country’s many nomads even more precarious.

People are already dying from hunger and diseases that strike those weakened by lack of food.

Severely malnourished children are nine times more likely than healthy ones to die from illnesses such as measles and diarrhoea.

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The World Health Organization says there were more than 25,000 cases of cholera in the first four months of 2017, with the number expected to more than double to 54,000 by June.

More than 500 people have already died from the disease.

It is not just humans who are suffering.

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‘Triangle of death’

In Somaliland, officials say, 80% of livestock have died.

Livestock is the mainstay of the economy – the ports in Somaliland and nearby Djibouti export more live animals than anywhere else in the world, mainly to the Gulf.

A Somali family crammed into a small tent on the outskirts of Baidoa
Tens of thousands people fleeing drought and al-Shabab live in tents on the outskirts of Baidoa

In south-western Somalia, tens of thousands of drought-affected people have fled to Baidoa, clustering into flimsy, makeshift shelters on the outskirts of the city.

This area – known as the “triangle of death” – was the epicentre of the famines of 2011 and 1991.

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“Al-Shabab is harvesting the boys and men we left behind on our parched land, offering them a few dollars and a meal,” says one woman. “Against their will, our children and husbands have become the jihadists’ new army.”

“The biggest problem in dealing with this drought is insecurity,” says Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, president of South West State, in his modest palace in Baidoa.

The city, which is protected by a ring of Ethiopian troops, is right in the heart of al-Shabab country. “The militants have closed all the roads so we cannot deliver help to those who need it most.”

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Deadly clashes

This brings home in the starkest of terms why security is top of the London Somalia Conference agenda.

As long as Somalia remains violent, with different parts of the country controlled by a multitude of often conflicting armed groups, it will be impossible to deliver emergency assistance, let alone long-term development.

Al-Shabab fighters perform military drills at a village about 25km outside Mogadishu
Al-Shabab, which has links to al-Qaeda, is believed to have between 7,000 and 9,000 fighters

The recently created South West State is one of the regions making up the new federal Somalia.

Critics fear this will lead to balkanization, and risks introducing another dimension to conflict, as the new states rub up against each other and start fighting. This has already happened in central Somalia, where last year there were deadly clashes between Puntland and Galmudug states.

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The attitude of people in South West State shows how much of a gamble the federal system is.

“We have always been marginalized and looked down on by other Somalis,” says a farmer, Fatima Issa.

“We do not want the federal troops here. They don’t hunt down al-Shabab the way our local militias do. We should push for more autonomy, maybe even break away and declare independence like Somaliland did in 1991.”

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One aim of the London Somalia Conference is to push for more progress on the sharing of resources between the regions and the center. This contentious issue has been debated since before the first London gathering in 2012.

‘Predatory carnival’

South West State has a special friendship with Ethiopia, which is not on the best of terms with the new federal government. This highlights another possible problem – some foreign powers have started to sign bilateral agreements with regional states.

For instance, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is building a military base in Somaliland, a territory the federal government considers an integral part of Somalia. The UAE has also given military hardware to Jubaland State in southern Somalia.

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Somalia’s former special envoy to the US, Abukar Arman, has described the London Somalia Conference as a “predatory carnival”, with foreign powers gathering to slice up Somalia for their own benefit.

Black Hawk Helicopter flying over Mogadishu
The loss of two Black Hawk helicopters in Somalia in 1993 made the US wary of intervening in African crises

Some in Somalia see it as a waste of time.

“It is an expensive talking-shop,” says Ahmed Mohamed, a rickshaw driver in the capital Mogadishu. “The politicians and diplomats are obsessed with the conference instead of taking action on the drought.”

But lessons have been learned, and there is now a far more nuanced approach to Somalia than there was when the crisis began, in the late 1980s.

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The US response to the Somali famine of 1991 was to send in nearly 30,000 troops. This ended in a humiliating withdrawal, following the shooting down of two US Black Hawk helicopters in 1993.

Now, much of the talk is of “Somali-owned” processes, although the shadows of a growing number of foreign powers can be seen lurking in the background.

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Somalia

Somalia: African Forces Sound Alarm, Demand 8,000 More Troops

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Somalia on the Brink: African Forces Sound Alarm, Demand 8,000 More Troops.

The African peacekeeping mission in Somalia warns of imminent disaster, pleading for 8,000 more troops as Al-Shabaab regains strength and Mogadishu faces deadly threats.

Mogadishu Under Threat: African Peacekeepers Demand 8,000 More Troops to Stop Somalia’s Collapse

The warning could not be more stark:
Without immediate reinforcements, Somalia’s capital could fall to Al-Shabaab.

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In an urgent statement issued after a high-level summit in Uganda, African Union peacekeeping commanders revealed that AUSSOM — the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia — is on the verge of collapse.

They urgently called for 8,000 more troops to plug widening security gaps, warning that Mogadishu and Jowhar are under imminent threat.

The situation turned even more desperate after Burundi, angered by diplomatic disputes with Somalia, announced its withdrawal of nearly 2,000 soldiers — roughly one-fifth of AUSSOM’s total manpower.

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Sources confirm the fallout stems from Somalia’s rejection of Burundi’s troop proposal, citing concerns over equipment readiness.
Burundi, feeling disrespected after years of sacrifice, now pulls out — leaving Somalia dangerously exposed.

Al-Shabaab Resurges — and the World Watches

After being pushed back in 2022-2023, Al-Shabaab has stormed back, retaking key territories in Middle and Lower Shabelle.
Attacks on Somali leadership convoys have resumed — including a failed strike on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu in March.

Without new reinforcements, commanders warn the “hard-earned gains” against Al-Qaeda’s Somali branch could vanish overnight.

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The crisis grows even darker with AUSSOM and the former ATMIS mission facing a crushing $156 million funding shortfall — leaving peacekeepers underpaid, under-equipped, and increasingly demoralized.

The Final Line of Defense

If no action is taken, African officials say the consequences will be catastrophic:

Mogadishu under siege

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Regional destabilization across the Horn of Africa

A new refugee exodus toward neighboring states and Europe

Renewed terrorist plotting against international targets

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The world ignored Somalia in the 1990s. It is on the brink of doing so again — with far deadlier consequences this time.

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Commentary

Quo Vadis, Somalia? The Third Republic on the Brink of Collapse

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Somalia’s own soldiers are assassinating their commanders, selling Somalia’s energy blocks to the highest bidder. Somalia now faces its most dangerous turning point since 1991. Al-Shabaab is raising flags in major towns while the Somali government sinks deeper into chaos, selling off resources and scapegoating enemies.

Is the capital next? 

Somalia isn’t slipping. It’s spiraling. The once fragile federal experiment is now visibly shattering—under the weight of incompetence, corruption, and political betrayal.

Mogadishu’s leadership, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is flailing at the helm. Al-Shabaab grows bolder by the day, releasing prisoners, raising flags, and walking through military bases unchallenged. In a horrifying echo of Afghanistan, Somalia’s own soldiers are assassinating their commanders, and U.S. diplomats are being evacuated. Even the president himself narrowly escaped an ambush. This is no longer counterinsurgency. This is collapse management.

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Desperate for Western attention, Hassan Sheikh has chosen a tactic that reeks of neo-colonial pandering: selling Somalia’s energy blocks to the highest bidder, offering the country’s last resources to Trump-linked interests in the hope of buying security. His ambassador’s bizarre social media auction of Somalia’s oil was less diplomacy than a digital clearance sale of a broken state. The response? Silence in Washington. Chaos in the capital.

Meanwhile, Turkish boots are on Somali soil, drones fly overhead, and the African Union’s peacekeepers are now smeared as al-Shabaab sympathizers by Somali officials trying to dodge accountability. Puntland and Jubaland have already walked out of Hassan’s electoral circus. The remaining federal structure is now a skeleton of legitimacy—held together by the optics of registration drives and donor meetings.

And as al-Shabaab captures Aadan Yabaal—the president’s own hometown—Somalis wake up asking a question they hoped they’d never need to again: Can Mogadishu fall?

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Somalia has failed at the elite level. Hassan’s government blames everyone—Egypt, Ethiopia, the AU, even UN diplomats—except itself. It ignores the internal rot, the patronage system, the militarized nepotism, and the utter lack of coherent national strategy.

The result? Al-Shabaab no longer hides. It governs. And the state no longer fights back. It tweets.

Quo vadis, Somalia?
Downward. Fast. Unless something radical, honest, and painfully overdue changes now.

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Analysis

Erdogan’s Horn of Africa Power Grab: Is the Turkish Military Winning Somalia’s Capital?

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Turkey is waging a silent conquest in Mogadishu—with troops, drones, and oil deals—and Somalia’s president has already sold the keys.

In the name of “counterterrorism,” Turkey just staged a geopolitical takeover in Mogadishu. Two military planes, 500 soldiers, and more to come. But this isn’t just about Al-Shabaab—this is about Erdogan turning Somalia into a Turkish satellite state, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is rolling out the red carpet.

The Turkish military is no joke. It’s NATO’s second-largest army, hardened by decades of insurgency warfare, equipped with German tanks, U.S. fighters, and its own lethal drone fleet. Their F-16s fly low while Bayraktar TB2 drones hunt targets—perfect for the urban warfare creeping into Mogadishu’s night.

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But what’s terrifying is not just the firepower—it’s the strategy. Turkey isn’t just fighting Al-Shabaab, it’s occupying political space, installing its own contractors, oil firms, and trainers across Somalia. Somalia’s president isn’t leading a resistance—he’s hosting an auction.

Why is Hassan Sheikh letting it happen?

Simple: Erdogan found his puppet. PM Hamza’s Las Anod stunt was smoke and mirrors—a distraction while Ankara’s warships dock, oil deals are signed, and the Somali army becomes a Turkish proxy.

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This is the quiet conquest of Mogadishu. The West has pumped in $20 billion in aid over two decades—and what’s left? Al-Shabaab controls Mogadishu after dark. And now, Turkey controls it by day.

Turkish-trained female Somali commandos arrive in Mogadishu

The irony? While Trump talks business-first diplomacy, Erdogan is doing business with America’s enemies, grabbing oil fields in Somali territory that once belonged to U.S. firms. Turkish firms now guard U.S. diplomats in Somalia. Turkish warships circle the Red Sea. And Turkish drones rule the skies.

This isn’t a partnership. It’s a hostile takeover.

Somalia has been bought. Somaliland has been ignored. And if the U.S. doesn’t wake up, Erdogan’s Ottoman hustle will gut American influence from Africa to the Levant.

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Time to name names. Time to cut ties. And time to back the real allies—those who don’t sell their sovereignty for drones and flags.

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Commentary

Turkish Troops in Mogadishu: A War Cloaked in Denial

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Turkey Boots on the Ground: Is Mogadishu Being Outsourced?

Turkish boots on the ground in Mogadishu while Al-Shabaab silently takes over 4 districts. Somalia’s leaders play musical chairs—while militants walk into government offices unopposed. WARYATV exposes the ugly truth.

Erdogan’s Ottoman Hustle: How Turkey Is Playing Trump to Crush American Business in Africa

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As Al-Shabaab quietly seizes control of districts, 2,500 Turkish soldiers land—who’s really in charge now?

As Turkish troops land in Mogadishu under a security agreement, Al-Shabaab expands its stealth control. WARYATV investigates the dangerous delusion gripping Somalia’s leadership.

Two Turkish military aircraft touched down in Mogadishu, unloading up to 500 troops—with expectations that number could balloon beyond 2,500. Turkey frames this as counterterrorism cooperation. The truth? Somalia’s so-called “sovereignty” is being subcontracted out while its own leadership collapses from within.

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This isn’t partnership. It’s occupation through invitation. While Turkish warplanes bomb Al-Shabaab hideouts, militants are effortlessly patrolling four major Mogadishu districts without resistance—seizing government files, walking into local offices, and telling security guards, “Be back at your post tomorrow.”

Dayniile. Hilwa. Dharkaleey. Gubadleey.
All are now nocturnally governed by Al-Shabaab—without a single shot fired.

Sources within Western military intelligence confirm what the world refuses to admit: the capital is falling in slow motion, and it’s being covered up with press releases about international cooperation.

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President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is already preparing to scapegoat his NISA director and army chief—rumored to be replaced by political loyalists with zero tactical credibility. It’s a page ripped straight from Kabul before the Taliban sweep. The same air of denial. The same security theatrics. The same doomed outcome.

And while Turkish troops march in to supposedly help, Prime Minister Hamse Barre diverts attention with a staged visit to Las Anod—reigniting internal tensions instead of addressing the slow-motion collapse in Mogadishu. It’s all a distraction from a grim truth: Al-Shabaab is winning not by firepower—but by strategy, infiltration, and the cowardice of Somalia’s leadership.

This is no longer a counterinsurgency.
This is Somalia outsourced, Somali leadership imploding, and Al-Shabaab adapting faster than its enemies.

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Somalia

US offers $5M bounty for senior ISIS figure

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Khadra Issa, alias Ummu Qaqaa Somalia, named as top ISIS operative as U.S. intensifies hunt for diaspora-linked extremists

The U.S. government has put a $5 million bounty on the head of Khadra Issa, also known as Ummu Qaqaa Somalia, a Somali-born Dutch national accused of serving as a key recruiter, propagandist, and operative for ISIS. Her case sends a chilling message: ISIS is no longer confined to the ruins of Raqqa—it’s networked, mobile, and still recruiting, often through diaspora channels.

Issa’s profile paints a dangerous archetype. Fluent, digitally agile, and invisible for years, she allegedly helped orchestrate suicide bombings, child concealment, and online radicalization—while operating far from the battlefields. Most shocking is her alleged role in hiding two American children after their mother died in a U.S. airstrike. The fate of those children remains unknown, a haunting reminder of ISIS’s global entanglements.

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Her name is now featured on the Rewards for Justice program’s most-wanted list. This designation means the U.S. considers her a high-priority target—someone embedded in extremist networks still capable of regenerating threats worldwide.

Washington’s move is not just punitive—it’s strategic. With ISIS’s territorial grip gone, its strength lies in the shadows: in encrypted apps, digital outreach, and transnational sympathizers like Issa who blur lines between citizen and combatant.

Security experts warn that Somali-origin operatives have become critical nodes in ISIS’s decentralized revival strategy. These individuals often possess EU or Western passports, allowing them to cross borders, mask affiliations, and embed within migrant communities—becoming radical hubs.

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This case also raises larger questions. How did a European national of Somali descent reach this level of influence in a terror organization? How many more are under the radar? And why has the international community failed to dismantle these recruitment pipelines?

Khadra Issa is not just a fugitive—she’s the face of modern jihadist insurgency. And as the U.S. dangles millions for her arrest, one thing is clear: the war on ISIS may be out of the headlines, but it’s far from over.

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Somalia

Al-Shabaab Reclaims Aadan Yabaal: Is Mogadishu Next?

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The collapse of Middle Shabelle town exposes Somalia’s crumbling counteroffensive and re-energizes fears of a militant siege on the capital.

In a devastating blow to Somalia’s fragile counterinsurgency effort, Al-Shabaab militants stormed and seized the strategic town of Aadan Yabaal in Middle Shabelle—an area President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself toured just weeks earlier to inspire confidence. The government’s response? Silence. The militants’ message? We’re not done yet.

The Wednesday dawn assault, characterized by explosions, heavy artillery, and five hours of intense ground combat, ends with the fall of what was once a forward base for government operations. It’s a symbolic and strategic defeat: Aadan Yabaal had served as a key operations center against militant-controlled areas since its recapture in 2022.

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Al-Shabaab’s Shabelle offensive is working. With over 50% more attacks in 2025 compared to last year, the militant group is flipping the script. After federal gains in 2022, the insurgents are now taking back ground—and fast. This isn’t just a tactical setback; it’s a psychological one.

Sources indicate the government’s forces conducted a “tactical withdrawal.” But it’s hard to spin the loss of a heavily militarized town as anything less than a collapse. Videos released by Al-Shabaab show fighters unchallenged inside the town, flaunting weapons and capturing vehicles. The symbolism is undeniable: The militants are organized, mobile, and emboldened.

Even more concerning is what this loss portends. The pattern suggests a strategic encirclement of Mogadishu. Villages within 50 kilometers of the capital have fallen. Assassination attempts on the president are growing. The Aadan Yabaal loss isn’t an isolated flare-up—it’s a warning shot.

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Community militias and remnants of the federal army are reportedly preparing a counteroffensive. But the truth is, Al-Shabaab has just sent a chilling message: the war is far from over—and they’re winning battles that matter.

If Aadan Yabaal can fall so easily, how long before Mogadishu becomes more than just a target?

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Analysis

America Pulls the Plug on Somalia: UN Funding Blocked, AUSSOM on the Brink

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Trump eyes embassy closures as US rejects UN plan to fund peacekeepers in Somalia — Mogadishu’s last lifeline in peril.

The US shocks the UN by rejecting funding for African Union forces in Somalia, just as Trump weighs closing the US Embassy in Mogadishu. With Al-Shabaab advancing and oil politics heating up, is Somalia doomed to implode?

The United States just signaled the collapse of Somalia’s last fragile security architecture — and it did so with chilling clarity. Washington has publicly rejected UN efforts to fund the African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), effectively gutting any hope for predictable peacekeeping operations in a country teetering on the edge of collapse.

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This isn’t just a bureaucratic snub — it’s a geopolitical death sentence for Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants are already testing the vacuum, launching a multi-pronged assault on Adan Yabaal, a key military base in Middle Shabelle. If confirmed, the town’s fall would mark the largest strategic loss since Somalia launched its offensive against terror in 2022.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the Security Council: no funding, no peace. But the US—under Trump’s second-term posture—is slamming the door shut, labeling Somalia as unfit for a hybrid funding model under Resolution 2719. Diplomats are in a panic. Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly planning to close up to 30 diplomatic missions, with Mogadishu’s embassy topping the list.

Somalia’s response? Desperation disguised as diplomacy. The FGS is now peddling oil blocks in contested territories like Nugaal Valley. In a flashy announcement on X, Somalia’s ambassador to the US declared “Somalia is open for drilling,” targeting American firms with an offer it legally and militarily cannot secure.

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Somalia’s Ambassador to the United States, Dahir Hassan Arab

The move comes after Somalia’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo — a region still engulfed in the political wreckage of its war with Somaliland.

This isn’t about development. It’s about weaponizing recognition, resource manipulation, and fake sovereignty in a bid to win Trump’s favor and undermine Somaliland’s momentum.

But while Hargeisa builds forests and attracts foreign media praise, Mogadishu is drowning in debt, insurgency, and denial. The West is tuning out, and even the UN is losing patience. The US, once Somalia’s diplomatic oxygen, is now pulling the plug.

Somalia is not rising — it’s being unplugged.

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Corruption

$1.7M Scandal Explodes in Somalia: Parliament Alleges Corruption, Threatens Collapse of Donor Confidence

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MP Dr. Abib accuses Somali leadership of corruption, illegal contracting, and diplomatic sabotage in World Bank project.

Explosive corruption allegations rock Somalia’s government as MP Dr. Abib exposes illegal $1.7 million contract with PEMANDU Associates. International donors on edge as diplomatic crisis brews. 

Somalia’s fragile legitimacy is unraveling—again—this time under the weight of a $1.7 million corruption scandal that could choke the nation’s lifeline of international aid. At the center: a high-stakes consulting contract with Malaysia-based PEMANDU Associates and a damning letter by Federal MP Dr. Abdullahi Hashi Abib that pulls no punches.

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From contract fraud to constitutional violations, the scandal tears into the Somali government’s already tenuous credibility. Dr. Abib’s accusations strike directly at the heart of state power: Prime Minister Hamse Barre, the Minister of Finance, and even the Central Bank Governor are named in an alleged web of patronage, nepotism, and legal misconduct. The contract, supposedly for a “National Transformation Plan,” not only sidesteps the existing National Development Plan (NDP-9), but tramples Somalia’s own laws and the World Bank’s procurement protocols.

This isn’t just about numbers and paperwork. This is a war over the soul of Somalia’s development future—and whether that future will be written by Somali institutions or foreign cronies with elite connections.

The deeper scandal? The expulsion of Sweden’s Deputy Ambassador, reportedly for questioning the legitimacy of the NTP plan. That single act triggered a diplomatic time bomb, endangering ties with Sweden, the EU, and the broader donor community that props up Somalia’s fragile institutions. Already suffering from what Abib calls “plan fatigue,” donors may walk away for good—leaving Mogadishu’s elite in their palaces and the Somali people with dust.

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Somalia Expels Swedish Consul Anna Högberg

This isn’t just bureaucratic rot. It’s systemic sabotage of Somalia’s own governance structure. The removal of the Planning Ministry from oversight reeks of executive overreach, a hijacking of constitutional order. It’s no longer just corruption; it’s state capture.

If these allegations hold, Prime Minister Hamse may soon find himself isolated both internationally and domestically. With mounting pressure for parliamentary inquiries, forensic audits, and criminal investigations, this could be the opening salvo of a broader political reckoning.

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Somalia’s leaders now face a stark choice: accountability or collapse.

Stay tuned. WARYATV will track every twist of this unfolding scandal.

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