Ethiopian Forces to Join African Peace Mission in Somalia; Will Somaliland Finally Have the Upper Hand?
The recent military agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia on February 22, 2025, is a significant yet dangerous step in the region’s geopolitics, indicating an intensification of joint efforts to tackle terrorism, primarily Al-Shabaab. The two nations have agreed to deploy Ethiopian forces as part of the African Peace Mission in Somalia, a move that brings both hope for peace and warnings of further escalation in the ongoing fight for control in the Horn of Africa. But one must question: is this partnership genuinely about peace, or is it a prelude to the inevitable rise of further violent conflict that could destabilize an already fragile region?
The collaboration between Ethiopian military and Somali security forces has the potential to ramp up military actions against terrorist groups, notably Al-Shabaab, which has been wreaking havoc in Somalia for over a decade. With this move, the Federal Government of Somalia is doubling down on international support to combat one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist organizations. However, it is worth noting that the forces operating under African Union’s mission have had limited success, with Al-Shabaab continually adapting and expanding its influence. While Ethiopian troops may be an added force on the ground, they are also a signal of deeper foreign involvement, which raises new questions about national sovereignty.
Somaliland’s Opportunity to Capitalize on Weakening Terrorism in Mogadishu
Here’s where the situation gets interesting. While Somalia and Ethiopia’s alliance makes headlines for its military collaboration, it is Somaliland that could be the real beneficiary in this war on terror. Somaliland has long had a reputation for stability compared to its southern neighbors, even as it continues to fight for recognition on the world stage. The Ethiopian-Somali agreement could inadvertently allow Somaliland to rise as the true force against terrorist elements in the region. Unlike Somalia’s fragile government, which has shown repeated vulnerability to terrorist influence, Somaliland has developed its own security structure, which could be a much more capable force in eradicating Al-Shabaab’s influence.
With Ethiopia’s additional military presence, Somaliland could strengthen its position as the legitimate center of power in the region, allowing its forces to take more direct actions against Al-Shabaab without interference from Mogadishu. As Ethiopian and Somali forces battle for control, Somaliland might find an opportunity to take the initiative in eliminating terrorist elements and securing more territory, effectively sidelining Mogadishu’s ineffective leadership.
In essence, while the Ethiopian-Somali military pact may seem like a major blow against terrorism, it may also signal the beginning of a new battle: Somaliland’s drive to reclaim its role as the true protector of the Horn of Africa. With its own forces far better equipped to handle local security, Somaliland could turn the tide in its favor, potentially pushing back against not only Al-Shabaab but the terror-infested government of Mogadishu itself.
This agreement raises as many questions as it answers: will the forces in Mogadishu be able to harness the promise of this military pact, or will they simply become pawns in a much larger game of regional dominance? The balance of power in the Horn of Africa is shifting, and while Somalia and Ethiopia may claim to fight terrorism, it’s Somaliland’s actions that could determine the future of the region.
