Mogadishu’s double diplomacy is spiraling into a battlefield as rival Arab and African powers use Somalia as the next chessboard for proxy warfare. Hassan Sheikh is playing with fire—and the fuse is already lit.
What if the next Middle East war doesn’t start in Gaza or the Red Sea—but in Mogadishu? The warning signs are no longer subtle. Somalia is already hosting simultaneous delegations from Sudan and the UAE—two nations locked in a covert, bloody war in Khartoum. Egypt is shipping troops into AUSSOM under the banner of peacekeeping while using it as cover to challenge Ethiopia’s influence across the Horn. Ethiopia, for its part, is still seething over the Egypt-Somalia defense pact. The winds are shifting, and Somalia is squarely in the crosshairs.
Hassan Sheikh claims these visits are innocent. But that’s just diplomatic theater. In truth, Somalia is being carved into zones of influence: UAE security cash in Mogadishu, Egyptian boots coming in under the AU, Sudanese intelligence crawling through hotel corridors. What looks like diplomacy is actually war pre-positioning.
Here’s the unfiltered reality: Egypt and Ethiopia are headed for a collision over the Nile. Sudan’s internal war is already dragging in foreign actors, and the UAE has been accused—publicly—of arming Sudan’s RSF militia. Now, Somalia, weak and desperate, is being offered influence and money in exchange for silence and access. The president is juggling Arab loyalties and Horn alliances like a man on a minefield.
The danger? All it takes is one Egyptian shipment of weapons “for Somali stability” to land in the wrong hands. One UAE-linked training base to be caught harboring RSF defectors. One Ethiopian convoy ambushed by Shabaab and blamed on UAE-backed Somali intelligence. This isn’t speculation—it’s a countdown.
Somalia may soon become what Yemen was five years ago: a laboratory for foreign war games. And if Hassan Sheikh thinks he can outmaneuver giants like Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE with press statements and denials, he’s already lost.
