Washington says a deal is “reasonably close.” Europe’s top spies say Moscow isn’t serious. Who’s reading the Kremlin right?
Senior European intelligence officials are casting doubt on the prospects of a Ukraine peace agreement this year, warning that Moscow has little interest in ending the war quickly — despite President Donald Trump’s claim that US-brokered diplomacy has brought a deal “reasonably close.”
The heads of five European spy agencies, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said Russia appears to be using ongoing talks with Washington as leverage to pursue sanctions relief and economic concessions rather than a genuine settlement. One intelligence chief described the latest Geneva round as “negotiation theater.”
Their assessments expose a widening gap between European capitals and the White House. Trump has expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a deal, and Kyiv says Washington hopes to secure an agreement by June, ahead of US mid-term elections in November.
But European intelligence leaders see no shift in Moscow’s core objectives. “Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” one official said, pointing to demands that Ukraine abandon its Western alignment and remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power.
Russia currently occupies large portions of eastern Ukraine, including most of the Donetsk region. Moscow has demanded that Kyiv withdraw from the remaining 20 percent of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control — a condition Kyiv has firmly rejected.
Even if Ukraine conceded territory, some European officials warn that such a move would likely trigger new Russian demands rather than end the conflict. One spy chief said there is a “misplaced belief” in some quarters that territorial concessions would rapidly unlock peace.
Another concern raised by European intelligence centers on parallel negotiations. Two officials said Moscow is attempting to split talks into separate tracks: one focused on ending the war and another centered on potential US-Russia economic cooperation, including relief from sanctions.
Ukrainian officials have alleged that discussions include proposals for large-scale bilateral deals worth trillions of dollars — claims the European intelligence chiefs declined to detail.
While Russia’s economy faces pressure from sanctions, high interest rates and shrinking fiscal reserves, European analysts describe it as resilient enough to sustain prolonged conflict. The country’s central bank rate remains elevated, and access to global capital markets is restricted, but Moscow has adapted to wartime conditions.
The White House dismissed the anonymous criticism, with a spokesperson saying President Trump and his team have done more than anyone to bring both sides together.
For now, diplomacy continues. But across Europe’s intelligence community, skepticism runs deep: without a fundamental shift in Moscow’s objectives, they see little chance that 2026 will deliver the breakthrough Washington is seeking.
