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Geopolitical Ripples: Security Belt-2025 and the Tense Triad of Iran, Russia, and China

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For Somaliland and its neighbors, the outcomes of this exercise will dictate future diplomatic choices and security strategies…

The Horn of Africa is once again at the epicenter of global attention as Iran, Russia, and China unveil their joint naval exercise, Security Belt-2025, set to take place near the Iranian port of Chabahar in the strategic waters of the Gulf of Oman. This maneuver, underscored by the participation of formidable naval powers, is not merely a demonstration of maritime prowess but a significant geopolitical statement in an increasingly multipolar world.

Chabahar, situated in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, is emblematic of more than just geographic strategy. It represents a critical juncture in the Belt and Road Initiative and serves as a vital counterbalance to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, further bolstered by Chinese investments. The port’s choice as the locus for Security Belt-2025 highlights its growing importance as a hub of trade and military logistics, projecting Iran’s readiness to safeguard vital shipping lanes against perceived Western encroachments.

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The backdrop to this exercise is a tapestry of escalating tensions and regional power plays. The United States’ pivot to Asia, coupled with relentless pressure on Iran over its nuclear ambitions and support to Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, sets a precarious stage. Security Belt-2025 is thus a clear riposte to the West, signifying a deepening of military and strategic ties among the trio, aimed ostensibly at securing energy routes and establishing a counterfoil to NATO’s maritime activities.

The scope of the exercise—featuring advanced missile cruisers, destroyers, and a suite of joint operational tactics from anti-piracy to search and rescue operations—underscores a comprehensive approach to maritime security. This tripartite force aims to showcase its capability not just in defense but in a potential offensive posture that spans from the Strait of Hormuz to the broader Indian Ocean, sending ripples through global naval strategies.

While the immediate goal of Security Belt-2025 is to fortify military cooperation, the broader implications are profound. For regional neighbors and global powers alike, the exercise is a bellwether for Iran, Russia, and China’s readiness to challenge the status quo, potentially reshaping security alignments in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Countries like Saudi Arabia, India, and the UAE, closely watching, must recalibrate their policies in a region where traditional alliances are being tested by the day.

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As Security Belt-2025 unfolds, it will be crucial to monitor the strategic dialogues it precipitates within international forums and between regional stakeholders. The exercise not only reaffirms Iran, Russia, and China’s commitment to a shared security vision but also poses a strategic dilemma for the United States and its allies, who may see this as a call to reinforce their naval and diplomatic engagements in the region.

In essence, Security Belt-2025 is more than a routine naval drill; it is a geopolitical maneuver crafted to assert influence and signal capability in a world where global power balances are rapidly shifting. For Somaliland and its neighbors, the outcomes of this exercise will dictate future diplomatic choices and security strategies, as they navigate the turbulent waters of the Horn of Africa’s political landscape.

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Trump’s Deal for Ukraine’s Rare Earths: Strategic Lifeline or Resource Grab?

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Amid Trump’s shifting stance on Ukraine, a new deal grants the U.S. a stake in rare earths while securing Kyiv’s military hopes. Is this peace through partnership or exploitation? 

The Trump administration has secured direct access to Ukraine’s coveted rare earth mineral reserves through a newly signed U.S.-Ukraine Reinvestment Fund. Framed as a strategic alliance for “peace and prosperity,” this deal signals far more than a diplomatic gesture—it’s a calculated transaction at the heart of a grinding, unresolved war.

Announced on Wednesday, the agreement is thin on public details but thick in implication. The U.S. now has preferential entry to Ukraine’s mineral wealth—resources crucial to advanced technologies and global supply chains. In return, Kyiv locks in future American military and financial support, even as Trump’s public disdain for Zelenskyy and frustration with the war’s stalemate grow louder.

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“This is about getting something back for the money,” Trump bluntly told NewsNation, framing the deal as a hedge against being “made to look foolish.” It’s transactional diplomacy—peace with a profit margin.

Behind the scenes, the agreement salvages what was nearly lost in a chaotic Oval Office meeting months earlier. Trump, flanked by Vice President JD Vance, had nearly scuttled a similar proposal, berating Zelenskyy for not surrendering Crimea and blaming him for prolonging the war. But now, amid increasing tensions with Putin and a flurry of deadly strikes on Kyiv, Trump appears to have recalibrated.

The deal, however, isn’t just a carrot—it’s leverage. With rare earths on the line, Washington now holds a tangible stake in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction and future sovereignty. For Kyiv, the optics are clear: America is investing not only in Ukraine’s victory, but in its minerals, its land, and its long-term reconstruction roadmap.

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Critics might call it neocolonial, a resource-for-weapons exchange that echoes the 20th century. Supporters will argue it’s realpolitik at its finest—tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s survival, and keeping Russia at bay with more than words.

The reality? Ukraine’s rare earths are now part of the global power chessboard. And Trump is making sure America plays to win.

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White South Africans Granted US Refugee Status: A New Chapter — Or Political Theater?

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The decision by the United States to grant refugee status to at least 54 white South Africans—Afrikaners—has triggered confusion, outrage, and applause, depending on who you ask. Set to arrive in Washington on May 12, the group represents the first wave under a Trump-era executive order that cites “discrimination, violent rhetoric, and land expropriation without compensation” as justification.

But the facts are murkier. While South Africa’s land reform bill does permit land seizures under certain conditions, no land has been seized. The law is legally constrained, targeting underused or unsafe property, not specific racial groups. Yet Trump’s administration frames the issue as ethnic persecution, pointing to South Africa’s opposition to US-Israel policy and renewed ties with Iran as additional justification.

Behind the scenes, this move may be more about optics than humanitarian concern. Refugee vetting typically takes 18–24 months, but the Afrikaners’ process appears to have been fast-tracked, raising questions about political motives and selective empathy in America’s refugee policy.

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Critics argue this reflects a double standard: thousands of vulnerable people—including war survivors from Sudan, Syria, and Afghanistan—have had their cases delayed or denied. And while Trump paints Afrikaners as an oppressed minority, South Africa remains one of the most unequal societies on Earth, where white South Africans—just 7% of the population—still dominate land and corporate wealth.

The symbolism of “refugee” status matters. It reframes powerful landowners into victims, while ignoring structural imbalances rooted in apartheid’s legacy. Some analysts warn this could embolden white nationalist narratives in both South Africa and the West.

This isn’t just an immigration story. It’s about history, politics, race, and who gets to claim victimhood in a deeply divided global order.

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Drones, Deals, and Defiance: Russia and China Showcase Global Power Shift

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Moscow unveils combat drones at Victory Day parade as Putin and Xi signal deepening military and diplomatic alignment.

As the drums rolled and formations clicked into step, the true message from Moscow’s Red Square on Victory Day wasn’t nostalgia—it was a future shaped by drones, diplomacy, and defiance. The first-ever display of combat drones, used ruthlessly in Ukraine, coincided with a visit by China’s President Xi Jinping, Russia’s highest-profile ally. It wasn’t just a parade. It was a warning shot to the West.

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Steel and Silence: The Drone Debut

For the first time, Russia paraded the Lancet, Geran-2, Orlan-10, and Orlan-30 drones, combat-tested in Ukraine, in front of world leaders. The ZALA Lancet, a loitering kamikaze drone, has targeted Ukrainian tanks and even aircraft. The Geran-2, modeled after Iranian Shahed drones, has crippled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—and, according to Kyiv, residential buildings too.

Russian state TV, usually careful with military disclosures, openly acknowledged the drones’ battlefield utility, signaling pride rather than secrecy.

Xi’s Visit: No Longer Just a Guest, But a Partner

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Seated beside Putin, Xi Jinping was not merely an honored guest—he was a strategic equal. As the West recoils from Russia, China is stepping closer, cementing a new axis of power that is as economic as it is military.

The presence of Chinese troops in the parade, the handshake between Putin and North Korean officers, and planned agreements on energy, defense, and infrastructure paint a clear picture: The anti-Western coalition is not hypothetical—it’s operational.

Bilateral trade between Russia and China has soared to $245 billion, while discussions over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline signal deeper energy interdependence. Every handshake and signature on Red Square echoed like a cannon blast toward Brussels and Washington.

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Putin’s Narrative: The Ghosts of 1945, The Drones of 2025

In his address, Putin tethered past heroism to present conflict, invoking the Allied victory over Nazism while justifying the war in Ukraine. “We honor the memory of WWII, and we support those defending our motherland today,” he declared, equating his troops in Donbas with the soldiers of Stalingrad.

To many, this is cynical historical revisionism. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the parade a ‘march of bile and lies’, accusing Moscow of weaponizing nostalgia to justify modern-day aggression.

But to the audience on Red Square—including leaders from China, North Korea, Brazil, and several African states—the message was something different: Russia is not isolated. It is evolving.

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Global Implications: This Is No Longer a Proxy War

With North Korean troops assisting Russia in its western Kursk region, and Chinese missiles and drones circulating on battlefields, Ukraine is no longer a local war. It’s a prototype for future global confrontation.

The showcasing of these drones—particularly the Geran-2, allegedly enhanced with Chinese tech—suggests tighter battlefield coordination between Beijing and Moscow than previously acknowledged. As Iran develops its influence through weapons, and North Korea joins Russian regional defense, the world watches what may be the embryonic form of a new military bloc.

Conclusion: Drones Now, Alliances Forever

The 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat was supposed to be about remembrance. Instead, it became a rehearsal for a different kind of war—one fought with drones, alliances, and digital propaganda.

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For the West, the message is chilling: while you debate sanctions, your adversaries parade solidarity.

The geriatric tanks of Cold War parades are gone, replaced by humming drones and precision weapons. And standing beside them are not Cold War relics, but world leaders shaping what could become a 21st-century axis.

Red Square has spoken. The question now: who’s listening?

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Drones Over Moscow: Ukraine’s Warning Shot Before Xi’s Arrival

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As world leaders gather for Putin’s Victory Day parade, Kyiv’s drones strike deep into Russia’s capital in a calculated display of defiance.

On the eve of Putin’s biggest military spectacle, Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow, sending a chilling message to visiting leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping.

Ukraine just sent its most explosive diplomatic message yet — not through speeches, but through the sky.

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With Xi Jinping preparing to walk Red Square alongside Vladimir Putin, at least 19 Ukrainian drones pierced the skies over Moscow, marking the second consecutive night of air incursions ahead of Russia’s most sacred military holiday: Victory Day. While Russia’s defense ministry claimed it intercepted over 100 drones across its airspace, the psychological victory clearly belongs to Ukraine.

This is no accident. The timing is precision warfare. Kyiv’s drone blitz is aimed not just at military disruption, but geopolitical humiliation. Xi, Lula, To Lam, and Lukashenko will now parade through a capital on edge, a city that just moments ago scrambled jets and halted flights in panic. The symbolism is potent: even Russia’s fortress capital is not safe.

Putin’s fragile narrative — a return to glory, showcased through tanks, flags, and loyal allies — is crumbling under the weight of buzzing Ukrainian drones and a war that shows no sign of resolution. And Kyiv isn’t playing along. Zelensky refused to sugarcoat Putin’s three-day “ceasefire charade,” dismissing it as a political maneuver to dazzle international guests. His message to global leaders attending the parade was blunt: “We cannot be responsible for what happens in Russian territory.”

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The Kremlin calls it a threat. But to many watching, it’s strategy. Ukraine is shifting the battlefield — from trenches to towers, from frozen frontlines to diplomatic forums. The drone attack comes days after Ukraine downed a Russian Su-30 with a sea drone, and after reports surfaced of Ukrainian fighters still operating inside Russia’s Kursk region.

And now, the elephant in the room: China. Zelensky has publicly accused Beijing of aiding Moscow, claiming captured Chinese fighters on Ukrainian soil. Beijing denies it, but the ambiguity is growing. For Xi to stand next to Putin while missiles fall near Moscow’s airport raises serious questions — and risks.

In this high-stakes chess match, Ukraine just flipped the board. Victory Day may still proceed, but its message has been hijacked. No missile in a parade can outshine the shock of real ones falling from the sky.

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Israel Must Cripple the Houthis—Outsourcing War to Trump Won’t Work

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As Houthi missiles pound near Tel Aviv, Israel faces a hard truth: Only Israeli retaliation can stop Iranian-backed terror from Yemen.

After a missile evades U.S.-Israeli defenses and hits near Ben Gurion Airport, it’s clear: Israel must stop relying on Trump’s strikes and go full force against the Houthis.

The fourth Houthi missile in three days didn’t just crash near Israel’s most critical airport — it shattered the illusion that America’s strikes alone can protect Israeli airspace. As sirens wailed and smoke rose near Ben Gurion Airport, it became painfully obvious: Israel cannot afford to subcontract its national security to even its closest ally.

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The Houthis are no longer a distant Yemeni nuisance — they are Tehran’s armed tentacle, striking Israel’s heart with impunity. Eight wounded, flights canceled, airspace panicked. The missile — possibly Iranian-engineered, possibly intercepted too late — left a crater near Terminal 3, a stone’s throw from Israel’s aviation nerve center. That’s not just a hit. It’s a message.

And what has Israel done? Watched. Waited. Outsourced retaliation to the U.S., even as Trump’s 700 drone and airstrikes fail to dismantle the Houthi war machine. Yes, the Houthis are bleeding. But they’re not broken. Not even close.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said those who strike Israel will be “hit sevenfold.” So far, that’s just talk. The Houthis have already crossed every red line. They’ve targeted civilian infrastructure. They’ve turned the Red Sea into a battleground. And now they’re threatening Israel’s very sovereignty with daily ballistic provocations.

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Let’s be honest, Yemen’s so-called government has zero control. Iran’s Houthi proxies are the regime. And every time Israel delays retaliation, it tells Tehran that Israel’s deterrence is up for negotiation.

No more waiting for green lights from Washington. No more outsourced airstrikes. No more diplomatic excuses. Israel has the most advanced air force in the region and decades of battlefield intelligence. It’s time to use it.

Because no country — no sovereign, democratic nation — would accept missiles raining down on its airports without unleashing fire and steel in return. Israel’s silence is no longer strategic. It’s dangerous.

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And now the mission must be clear: Cripple the Houthis. Cripple their supply lines. Cripple the ports they use. Cripple the Iranian military advisors embedded with them. If Israel wants peace, it must first deal out devastating war — not later, not when America gives the nod, but now.

This is not a time for restraint. This is a time to roar.

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ASSESSMENTS

Somalia’s President Fabricates Anti-Terror Efforts to Solicit International Aid

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In a recent interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud claimed significant victories against terrorist groups in the Al Miskaad and Golis mountains, asserting that Somali forces had achieved “important successes” in these regions. However, evidence suggests that these operations have been primarily conducted by Puntland’s regional forces, not the federal government.

President Mohamud’s statements appear to overstate the federal government’s role in counter-terrorism efforts, potentially to attract international support and funding. He further alleged a collaborative threat from Al-Shabaab, ISIS, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, citing intercepted shipments of explosives and drones from Yemen to Somalia. While there have been reports of such interceptions, the extent of coordination among these groups remains unverified Asharq Al-Awsa

Critics argue that President Mohamud’s narrative serves to amplify perceived threats, thereby justifying increased foreign aid and military assistance. This strategy raises concerns about the accuracy of information disseminated by the Somali government and its implications for international policy and aid distribution.

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The international community is urged to critically assess the Somali government’s claims and ensure that support is based on verified information and effective counter-terrorism strategies.

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Somalia Bows to China, Risks Losing U.S. Aid and Recognition

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U.S. Representatives blast Somalia for acting like a Chinese puppet state after banning Taiwan passports — aid, TPS, and even its embassy now at risk.

In yet another sign that Somalia is no longer a sovereign actor but a proxy playground for global superpowers, the Somali government has taken an unprecedented step to invalidate Taiwan-issued passports. The move, pushed through Somalia’s Civil Aviation Authority and backed by Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, has triggered a wave of bipartisan fury in Washington, D.C.

U.S. lawmakers Tom Tiffany and Andy Ogles have issued a direct warning to Mogadishu: reverse the Taiwan passport ban or face severe consequences. Their list is brutal and unforgiving—revoke TPS status for Somali nationals, halt visa services, cut bilateral aid, and even shut down Somalia’s embassy in Washington. For a country dependent on U.S. aid and goodwill, Somalia seems to be digging its own grave.

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“If the Somali government insists on acting as little more than a branch office of the Chinese Communist Party, there is no reason for the United States to continue to pretend that it is independent, legitimate, or worthy of U.S. recognition,” the lawmakers wrote.

Let that sink in: U.S. lawmakers are questioning Somalia’s legitimacy as a nation.

This diplomatic train wreck comes just as Taiwan deepens its ties with Somaliland—a functioning democracy, unlike the chaotic ruins of Mogadishu. Taiwan’s formal relationship with Somaliland since 2020 has angered Beijing and now, clearly, its puppet regimes. Yet instead of focusing on national unity or security, Somalia’s leadership has chosen to launch a geopolitical assault on Taiwan, likely at Beijing’s behest.

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The irony? While the Somali government postures as a defender of sovereignty, it dances to the tune of foreign masters while cracking down on passports from a democratic island it has zero jurisdiction over.

This isn’t just about China or Taiwan. It’s about the complete collapse of independent Somali foreign policy. It’s about a failed state that collaborates with terrorists like Al-Shabaab while simultaneously inviting the wrath of its most crucial ally—the United States.

America must now act decisively. Let this be the wake-up call: Somalia has chosen its side, and it’s not the one that values democracy, transparency, or independence.

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Trump Declares “Golden Age” in Defiant 100-Day Speech at Alabama: “We’re Back, and We’re Winning”

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Tuscaloosa, AL — In a speech that felt more like a campaign victory rally than a commencement address, President Donald J. Trump delivered a thunderous message to graduates at the University of Alabama: America is winning again—and the revolution has just begun.

Marking 100 days into his second term, Trump didn’t just reflect—he roared. Framing his administration’s return as the beginning of a “Golden Age,” the president proclaimed:

“We’re celebrating the most successful first 100 days of any presidential administration in history.”

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Trump credited his aggressive immigration clampdown, citing a staggering 99.999% drop in border crossings—figures yet to be confirmed by Customs and Border Protection. He painted a picture of restored order at the southern border, lower gas and grocery prices, and an American spirit reignited by what he called “a revolution of common sense.”

Trump also reminded the crowd—and his critics—that he won all seven battleground states in November, seizing 312 Electoral College votes against Vice President Kamala Harris. He once again rejected the legitimacy of the 2020 election, calling Biden’s term “an aberration,” while vowing, “We’re not going back.”

His remarks on culture wars were equally fierce. “There will be no men in women’s sports. Not now, not ever,” he said to thunderous applause, drawing a clear line in the sand on gender identity policies. He praised Alabama leaders for resisting COVID lockdowns, calling them “heroes who chose liberty over tyranny.”

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Yet, amid the celebration, Trump couldn’t resist firing shots. Frustrated with federal courts overruling deportation orders, he quipped,

“They want to give due process to people who broke into our country. I say, let’s give due process to American citizens first.”

The event also highlighted Trump’s reshuffling of his national security team. He announced that Michael Waltz would be removed as National Security Advisor after mistakenly leaking strike details via Signal, promoting him instead to U.N. ambassador. It was a reminder: Trump rewards loyalty—but never forgives recklessness.

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And as for his old enemies? Trump was blunt:

“They hated me in my first term. Now they’re kissing my a–. It’s amazing. It’s nicer this way.”

With students cheering and MAGA hats dotting the crowd, one thing was clear in Tuscaloosa: Trump isn’t just governing—he’s preparing for the next battle.

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