Why Somaliland Must Prevent Moyale’s Conflict From Becoming Ethnic Incitement
Keep Moyale Out of Somaliland
Oromo workers in Somaliland did not start the Moyale conflict. Targeting them would endanger innocent residents, Somalilanders in Ethiopia and a relationship both countries need.
The fighting in Moyale is an Ethiopian crisis. It does not justify threats against Oromo residents in Somaliland, collective blame or an online campaign capable of damaging Somaliland’s security and its vital relationship with Ethiopia.
Reports confirm that fighting between forces and communities associated with Ethiopia’s Oromia and Somali regional states killed at least nine people and forced more than 2,500 civilians across the Kenyan border. The precise trigger and full casualty figures remain disputed.
Nothing in those events makes Oromo workers, families or traders in Hargeisa responsible.
Social media can manufacture a second conflict
Inflammatory messages circulating among Somaliland audiences risk transforming a distant territorial dispute into local ethnic intimidation. Claims that these accounts are centrally organized by outside enemies remain unverified and should not be reported as established fact without technical or intelligence evidence.
The danger, however, is real even if the campaign is loosely coordinated. Repetition can normalize hostility. False videos can provoke confrontations. A single assault may trigger retaliation, diplomatic tension or threats against Somaliland citizens living, studying and trading in Ethiopia.
Online actors do not need to create a mass movement. They need only persuade a few people to act.
Oromo residents are civilians, not representatives of a conflict
Oromo migrants living in Somaliland contribute to its economy, often performing difficult and poorly paid work in construction, domestic services and other labour-intensive sectors. Their legal status may vary, but their ethnicity cannot make them legitimate targets.
Oromo are Ethiopia’s largest ethnic community. Available demographic estimates place Oromia’s population at roughly 43–48 million—not the frequently repeated figure of more than 70 million. Ethiopia has not conducted a new national census since 2007, making precise ethnic totals uncertain.
The strategic point does not depend on an exaggerated number. Somaliland shares trade routes, security interests and substantial human connections with Ethiopia. Ethnic intimidation inside Somaliland could place those relationships—and Somalilanders in Ethiopia—under unnecessary pressure.
Government must act before rhetoric becomes violence
Somaliland’s government should issue an immediate statement affirming protection for Oromo residents and all other foreign communities. President Irro established a relevant precedent in 2025 when he ordered security agencies to protect Ethiopians following a video showing youths threatening an Ethiopian boy.
Police should investigate specific threats, incitement and preparations for violence. Enforcement must target unlawful conduct, not political criticism or legitimate discussion of Moyale.
Arresting people merely for unpopular opinions would weaken public trust and turn a security response into censorship.
Authorities should also establish a reporting channel for threatened residents, consult Ethiopian representatives and ask religious leaders, employers and media organizations to discourage collective blame.
WARYATV Assessment
The greatest danger is not that the Moyale fighting will physically reach Somaliland. It is that social media will import its ethnic logic.
Anyone encouraging attacks on Oromo civilians is not defending Somali interests. They are exposing Somalilanders in Ethiopia, damaging bilateral relations and creating an internal security problem where none previously existed.
Somaliland’s response should be unmistakable: Moyale’s dispute stays in Moyale, civilians remain protected and no ethnicity becomes a substitute for individual responsibility.
