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Is Somalia Ready to Face the Challenges of a New Era Without Ethiopian Forces?

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The Countdown to a Troop Withdrawal That Could Alter the Future of the Nation

Somalia stands at a precipice, with tensions simmering and the clock ticking down to a potentially explosive moment in history. Ethiopian troops, long seen as a stabilizing force in the chaotic landscape of Somalia, are scheduled to pull out by the end of 2024. This isn’t just a military withdrawal; it’s a seismic shift that sends tremors through the nation’s already fragile security architecture.

Ethiopia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Ambassador Taye Atske-Selassie, recently underscored the gravity of the situation, warning that any new arrangements post-ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) must be meticulously crafted. “We cannot afford to get this wrong,” he stated, his urgency echoing through the halls of diplomacy as he met with key UN officials at the 79th UNGA session in New York.

But here’s where it gets truly compelling: Somalia’s National Security Adviser, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, has defiantly declared that Ethiopian troops will not be part of the future security structure, a statement that has sent ripples of concern across the Somali landscape. Local Somali officials—those in the trenches of everyday warfare against the al-Shabab terrorist group—are sounding the alarm. What does a troop withdrawal mean for safety? For stability?

Imagine the fear coursing through the coastal towns and dusty streets of Somalia. With Ethiopian forces, who have fought valiantly against the mounting threat of al-Shabab, leaving the country, there are whispers that this move might tip the scales back in favor of the militants. Jubaland’s Deputy President, Mohamud Sayid Aden, could barely contain his anxiety, calling the situation a “difficult one” and cautioning that such decisions should never be made unilaterally. His voice trembles, not just for his state but for the futures of the families living in constant fear of violence.

Then there’s the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland that has everyone talking. This agreement, allowing Ethiopia to establish a naval base in Somaliland in exchange for diplomatic recognition, is seen by Mogadishu as a grave violation of sovereignty. The stakes couldn’t be higher! As Ali put it, “We cannot and will not consider Ethiopia an ally in advancing peace and security.”

The tension is palpable as Somali officials grapple with a future unknown. Questions swirl: Who will fill the vacuum left by Ethiopian troops? Will other Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) be willing to step up and shoulder this enormous responsibility without clarity on the political landscape? As Samira Gaid, a prominent Horn of Africa security analyst, pointedly remarks, the AU’s task of mediating between member states becomes increasingly complicated with each passing day.

The urgency mounts. Peacekeepers are already in the process of leaving, with 2,000 set to depart imminently, leaving a mere 9,500 behind. How will the remaining forces address the growing threat of al-Shabab? The undertones of looming crisis are frighteningly evident.

As local voices amplify their concerns, the world watches closely. With vulnerable communities hanging in the balance, who will rise to defend the future of Somalia? The time for answers is now. The call for solidarity and action is clear: the countdown has begun, and the implications of inaction could be catastrophic.

Will Somalia choose a path fraught with peril or unite to forge a new way forward? This is a challenge that could determine the fate of a Somalia.

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Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister Confers With the Director General of IOM

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Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Temesgen Tiruneh, held a significant discussion today with the Director General of the United Nations International Organization for Migration (UN-IOM), Amy E. Pope, in a meeting that underscored the cooperative efforts between Ethiopia and the IOM in tackling migration issues. This meeting, coming at a critical time for both the region and the international community, touched on several pressing topics central to enhancing the partnership between the two parties.

The Deputy Prime Minister highlighted the importance of addressing illegal migration, which has been a long-standing challenge for Ethiopia, a country that not only faces significant migration outflows but also plays host to a substantial number of refugees. Ethiopia is home to over 1.1 million refugees from various countries, placing it among the leading nations globally in terms of refugee intake.

On social media, Deputy PM Temesgen shared that the dialogue with Amy Pope led to a consensus on new cooperation proposals aimed at tackling the root causes of illegal migration and exploring sustainable solutions. Central to the discussion was the notion of making foreign employment a more significant contributor to Ethiopia’s sustainable development goals. Illegal migration, often driven by economic hardship and instability, has long been a source of concern for Ethiopia and the wider region. This collaboration seeks to transform migration from a challenge into a development opportunity, particularly by harnessing the benefits of formal, regulated foreign employment.

Temesgen expressed his gratitude for IOM’s role in mitigating the harsh impacts of illegal migration and for their continued support to those returning from perilous migration journeys. The IOM has been instrumental in providing resources, assistance, and reintegration programs for returnees, ensuring that they are better equipped to reintegrate into society and contribute to local development.

Ethiopia, located in a geopolitically significant region, serves as both a transit and destination country for migrants. The country’s proximity to conflict zones and its own economic challenges have positioned it at the forefront of global migration conversations. As conflicts persist and economic conditions remain volatile in parts of the Horn of Africa, the issue of migration is likely to remain a critical area of focus.

The dialogue between the Deputy PM and the IOM chief signals Ethiopia’s commitment to tackling migration challenges not through isolation, but through international cooperation. Sustainable development, job creation, and regulated foreign employment were emphasized as key strategies in managing the complexities of migration. By doing so, Ethiopia aims to reduce the drivers of illegal migration while ensuring that migration can contribute positively to the country’s development agenda.

The IOM’s involvement in Ethiopia has been robust, with the organization working on various initiatives, including returnee support, anti-trafficking programs, and assistance to internally displaced persons and refugees. This partnership, as underscored in today’s meeting, is set to expand in both scope and ambition.

As Ethiopia navigates the multifaceted challenges of migration, the collaboration with IOM is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping policies that align with both humanitarian concerns and development objectives. The joint proposals discussed by Temesgen Tiruneh and Amy Pope provide hope for a more structured and humane approach to migration, one that balances the need for economic opportunity with the rights and dignity of migrants.

This meeting reflects a broader, ongoing effort by Ethiopia to engage with international organizations and partners in managing migration more effectively, with an eye toward long-term stability and growth. As the country continues to provide refuge to millions while addressing its own migration challenges, the partnership with IOM will likely remain a cornerstone of its strategy in navigating these complex issues.

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Kenya’s Parliament Overwhelmingly Votes to Impeach Deputy President.

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Kenya’s parliament has voted to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, with an overwhelming majority of 281 lawmakers in favor and 44 opposing the motion. This vote followed daylong discussions where Gachagua defended himself against allegations, including claims that he supported anti-government protests in June and was involved in corruption. Gachagua has denied all the charges.

The impeachment process now moves to Kenya’s Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required to finalize his removal from office. The timing of the Senate vote has not yet been confirmed. Under Kenya’s constitution, if the Senate approves the motion, Gachagua will be automatically removed from his position, though he has stated he will challenge the impeachment in court.

The situation has stirred public debate, with clashes between supporters and opponents of the motion. Gachagua acknowledged the political nature of the process during his defense and called for a decision free of coercion. He has suggested that the impeachment motion may have the backing of President William Ruto, although the president has not publicly commented on the matter.

Gachagua addressed accusations regarding his properties, clarifying that some belonged to his late brother, and defended expenditures on renovations to his official residence. Despite requesting forgiveness in a recent speech, he later emphasized that this was not an admission of guilt.

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Blinken’s Visit to Laos for ASEAN and East Asia Summits

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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s upcoming visit to Vientiane, Laos, marks a pivotal moment in U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia, a region that has become increasingly central to geopolitical competition. Blinken will attend the ASEAN-U.S. Summit and the East Asia Summit, both critical forums for diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific. His mission is multifaceted, encompassing regional security, economic collaboration, and addressing pressing international crises, such as the conflict in Myanmar and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Representing President Joe Biden, Blinken’s participation in these summits underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to strengthening ties with Southeast Asia. ASEAN, comprising 10 member states, has long been seen as a crucial player in maintaining stability and economic growth in the Indo-Pacific. The region’s strategic location and economic potential make it a key arena for U.S. interests, particularly as Washington seeks to counterbalance China’s growing influence.

In 2023, U.S.-ASEAN trade reached $395.9 billion, solidifying the U.S. as the region’s second-largest trading partner after China. Blinken’s agenda will likely focus on furthering economic cooperation, especially in critical sectors like semiconductor supply chains, as the U.S. seeks to diversify away from China in key industries. Beyond trade, the U.S. is also the largest source of foreign direct investment in ASEAN, contributing $74.3 billion in 2022. Strengthening these economic ties will be vital as Washington seeks to solidify its influence in the region.

Key Issues: Myanmar and the South China Sea

One of the most pressing topics during Blinken’s visit will be the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. Since the military coup in 2021, Myanmar has been engulfed in violence, with the junta planning elections in 2024 despite widespread conflict. Daniel Kritenbrink, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, voiced concerns that any elections under the current conditions would be illegitimate and could exacerbate violence. The U.S. position is clear: peace and reconciliation must come before any electoral process.

Myanmar, however, is just one piece of the puzzle. The South China Sea remains a flashpoint for territorial disputes, particularly involving China’s expansive claims that overlap with those of ASEAN members like Vietnam and the Philippines. Upholding international law in the South China Sea is a cornerstone of U.S. policy, and Blinken is expected to reiterate this position during his discussions in Vientiane. The U.S. has consistently supported ASEAN members’ rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a stance that directly challenges China’s actions in the region.

The East Asia Summit, which brings together ASEAN members and major global powers including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, will provide a broader platform for addressing global geopolitical tensions. Russia’s war against Ukraine, a critical issue for U.S. foreign policy, will likely be a point of contention, especially as Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to attend. While ASEAN countries have diverse stances on the conflict, Blinken will likely use the summit to rally support for Ukraine and condemn Russian aggression.

Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, highlighted the challenge of achieving substantive outcomes in these multilateral forums. According to Patton, while the East Asia Summit will issue joint statements, real progress on contentious issues may be elusive. The polarization of global politics has made it increasingly difficult for dialogue partners like the U.S., China, and Russia to agree on language regarding international conflicts, let alone cooperate on solutions.

This year’s ASEAN summits are notable not only for their geopolitical significance but also for the emergence of a new generation of Southeast Asian leaders. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand’s newly elected Prime Minister, will attend her first ASEAN Summit. At just 38 years old, she represents a generational shift in the region’s leadership. Similarly, Singapore’s Lawrence Wong, who succeeded long-serving Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong earlier this year, will be making his first major appearance at the summit.

Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, also assumed office just days before the summit, further highlighting the transition in leadership across key U.S. allies in the region. Ishiba has already pledged to strengthen Japan’s alliance with the U.S., a critical relationship amid rising tensions with China and North Korea.

As Blinken heads to Laos, the stakes are high for both the U.S. and its partners in the Indo-Pacific. While the U.S. aims to deepen its engagement with ASEAN, it faces significant challenges, from managing its rivalry with China to addressing the multifaceted crises in Myanmar and Ukraine. The upcoming summits offer an opportunity for the U.S. to reaffirm its commitment to the region, but as experts like Susannah Patton have noted, achieving concrete progress will not be easy.

The Indo-Pacific remains a region of both immense opportunity and considerable risk, and Blinken’s visit to Laos will be a critical test of U.S. diplomacy in an increasingly complex and polarized world.

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Ethiopia Intensifies Diplomatic Push for Sea Access via “Give and Take” Strategy

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New President Taye Atske Selassie Prioritizes Maritime Access Amid Regional Cooperation Efforts

Ethiopia’s newly appointed President, Taye Atske Selassie, has reaffirmed the country’s commitment to securing alternative port access through a “give and take” strategy, emphasizing cooperation with neighboring countries. Speaking at a joint session of the Ethiopian parliament, President Taye highlighted Ethiopia’s strategic approach, focusing on mutual benefits and strengthened partnerships, especially with maritime-capable nations. He also underscored Ethiopia’s role in maintaining regional peace, especially in Sudan, and deepening its diplomatic ties, notably through its recent accession to BRICS, enhancing its international influence.

The president’s speech marked a continuation of Ethiopia’s long-term diplomatic efforts to resolve its lack of direct sea access following Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Ethiopia’s interest in forging stronger relationships with regional partners such as Somaliland, through Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) aimed at securing port access, remains pivotal.

The government is also working on expanding Ethiopia’s alliances to bolster economic cooperation and development across the Horn of Africa.

In addition, President Taye emphasized Ethiopia’s contributions to regional security, playing an active role in resolving the conflict in Sudan and maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s participation in multilateral organizations like the African Union and BRICS signifies its broader ambitions to enhance economic cooperation and safeguard its national interests in a complex geopolitical landscape.

Ethiopia’s commitment to securing maritime access highlights a multifaceted diplomatic strategy that includes balancing regional peace efforts with economic growth and international partnerships, positioning the country as an influential player in both Africa and global platforms.

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Nobel Prize in Medicine Awarded to American Scientists for MicroRNA Discovery

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Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun’s Groundbreaking Research on Gene Regulation Paves the Way for Novel Cancer Treatments

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to American scientists Victor Ambros and Gary Ruvkun for their discovery of microRNA, a small genetic material that regulates gene expression at the cellular level. Their breakthrough offers new insights into disease treatment, including cancer. MicroRNA has the potential to both treat illnesses and serve as biomarkers for diagnosis. Though clinical trials are underway, no drugs targeting microRNA have yet been approved. This discovery is considered pivotal in advancing precision medicine, particularly in altering gene behaviors to combat diseases like cancer.

Ambros and Ruvkun, who conducted their research at Harvard University and Massachusetts General Hospital respectively, were praised for their contribution to understanding how genes function and their ability to control gene activity. Their findings hold promise for future therapeutic approaches. Dr. Claire Fletcher from Imperial College London noted that microRNA-based treatments could help stop mutated genes that cause cancer from functioning excessively.

While practical applications are still emerging, experts predict that microRNA-targeted therapies may reach patients within the next decade, marking a new era of gene-focused medicine.

The announcement marks the beginning of the 2024 Nobel Prize season, which continues this week with awards in physics, chemistry, literature, and peace.

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Election 2024

Somali Presidency Accused of Funding Propaganda Against Jubbaland Leader Madobe

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Accusations of media manipulation ignite tensions between Somalia’s federal government and Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe.

The Somali presidency is under fire for allegedly funding a propaganda campaign against Jubaland’s President, Ahmed Madobe, as political tensions escalate. Mohamed Hassan Hiis, Jubaland’s Director of Information, claimed that Somalia’s federal office has been paying to spread insults and misinformation about Madobe. This accusation comes amid a deepening rift over the upcoming election processes. While Somalia’s federal government pushes for unified national elections, Madobe insists on an independent vote, fueling conflict between the two sides. Efforts to mediate have thus far failed, heightening political uncertainty.

This bitter dispute reflects broader divisions between the federal government and regional leaders, with the future of Somalia’s electoral system hanging in the balance. Madobe’s insistence on separate elections, reminiscent of the 2019 Jubaland elections, stands in sharp contrast to Villa Somalia’s vision of a unified electoral body. As the rift widens, the likelihood of reaching an agreement fades, threatening any potential for political cohesion.

Both President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre have made unsuccessful attempts to convince Madobe to accept a unified election process. These efforts reflect a broader federal ambition to centralize governance, which Madobe and other regional leaders perceive as an erosion of local autonomy.

At the heart of this controversy is a power struggle that goes beyond election logistics—it’s about control over Somalia’s political future. While federal authorities see a unified electoral system as a step towards a stable and cohesive government, Madobe views it as an encroachment on Jubaland’s hard-earned autonomy. The deepening political divide between Mogadishu and Kismayo underscores the broader challenges Somalia faces in balancing federal and regional interests.

How President Hassan’s Corruption Crushing Somalia’s Federal States

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Türkiye’s Oruc Reis to Embark on High-Stakes Seismic Mission Off Somali Coast

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Amid energy ambitions, Türkiye’s flagship vessel heads to Somali waters, seeking oil and gas reserves in uncharted territories.

Türkiye is taking bold steps into Somalia’s untapped energy reserves, sending its flagship research vessel, the Oruc Reis, on a seismic survey mission in search of oil and natural gas. Departing from Istanbul, the vessel is tasked with mapping potential drilling sites off the Somali coast. Backed by naval frigates, this seven-month operation, covering three licensed zones, reflects a high-stakes endeavor in Türkiye’s energy strategy. The mission is part of a broader geopolitical move, symbolizing Türkiye’s growing influence in East Africa’s strategic waters.

The Oruc Reis, named after the famous Ottoman naval commander, is no stranger to exploration, having completed surveys spanning 23,000 square kilometers in the Mediterranean. This new venture is particularly significant as it explores Somali waters for the first time. With its advanced 3D seismic technology, the ship will provide critical data to help pinpoint resource-rich locations, potentially altering the region’s energy landscape.

The Somali coast is uncharted territory when it comes to seismic exploration, and Turkish officials, including Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, are cautiously optimistic about the oil indicators in the area. The Turkish Petroleum Corporation’s recent agreements with Somalia have granted Türkiye exclusive exploration rights, further solidifying its foothold in the Horn of Africa.

The mission’s symbolic weight goes beyond oil—it is a statement of Türkiye’s rising energy ambitions. As global powers jostle for influence in Africa’s emerging energy markets, Türkiye is positioning itself as a key player in this strategic arena, where economic interests and political dynamics intersect.

Turkey to Deploy Frigates to Guard Energy Exploration Ship in Somalia

Turkey’s Strategic Push into Africa: Five Key Areas of Influence

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US Warships and Planes Strike Houthi Targets in Yemen

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Pentagon Launches Retaliatory Attacks After Houthi Assaults on Shipping Lanes

In a sharp escalation, US warships and planes launched coordinated strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, targeting 15 sites across key cities, including the capital, Sanaa. The Pentagon declared the strikes as vital to “protect freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea, a region increasingly threatened by Houthi assaults on international vessels.

For months, the Houthis have mounted an aggressive campaign, sinking two ships and targeting around 100 vessels in retaliation for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. These attacks prompted the US to step in, concerned over the strategic shipping lanes essential for global trade. Central Command emphasized that the US strikes focused on key Houthi assets, including weapons systems and bases used for these maritime disruptions.

Recent events highlight the growing tension between the Houthis and Israel, as the rebel group has expanded its campaign beyond the Red Sea, directly targeting Israeli sites. In recent months, drone and missile strikes have hit Tel Aviv and Israel’s main airport, killing civilians and sparking Israeli retaliatory strikes on Yemen. The increasing sophistication of these Houthi operations, including the downing of a US-made MQ-9 Reaper drone, showcases their growing military capability under Iranian guidance.

This confrontation forms part of a larger regional dynamic, with the Houthis as a crucial player in Iran’s network of allied militant groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. While US military strikes may temporarily stymie the group’s operations, the conflict threatens to pull more actors into this spiraling regional conflict.

The Pentagon’s retaliatory actions also highlight the risks to international shipping in one of the world’s most vital waterways. Last year, the US, UK, and several allies launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to safeguard Red Sea routes, underscoring the strategic importance of keeping these lanes open. However, the Houthi escalation and growing Iranian influence complicate the prospects of stabilizing the region.

As the US ramps up its military involvement, the situation remains volatile, with many questioning how far this conflict will spread and what the long-term implications will be for regional stability. Will Iran further entrench its position, or could these strikes provoke a larger showdown involving more global powers? The stakes have never been higher.

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