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ASSESSMENTS

Israel Confronts New Realities Amid U.S.-Houthi Ceasefire

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Trump’s Unilateral Deal with Houthis Challenges U.S.-Israel Alliance

President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi rebels has sent shockwaves through the Israeli political and military establishment. The agreement, brokered without prior consultation with Israel, has raised concerns about the reliability of the U.S.-Israel alliance and the implications for regional security. 

The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have been a persistent threat in the Middle East, targeting shipping lanes in the Red Sea and launching missile attacks against Israel. In response, the U.S. initiated a bombing campaign in March 2025, aiming to neutralize the Houthi threat to international maritime trade and regional stability. However, the sudden cessation of U.S. airstrikes, following the Houthis’ pledge to halt attacks on American vessels, has left Israel exposed to continued aggression from the group.

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The unilateral nature of the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire, without Israeli input, underscores a shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities under the “America First” doctrine. By focusing on protecting American interests, particularly the security of maritime trade routes, the U.S. has effectively sidelined Israeli security concerns. This move has emboldened the Houthis, who have stated their intention to continue attacks on Israel, viewing the U.S. withdrawal as a strategic victory .

For Israel, this development necessitates a reassessment of its defense strategy. Relying solely on U.S. support may no longer be viable, prompting Israel to consider independent military actions against the Houthis and other Iranian proxies in the region. Furthermore, the lack of U.S. consultation raises questions about the future of intelligence sharing and joint operations between the two allies.

The broader regional implications are significant. The U.S. decision may signal to other Iranian-backed groups that sustained aggression can lead to favorable outcomes, potentially destabilizing the Middle East further. Additionally, the move could strain U.S. relations with other allies who perceive a diminishing American commitment to collective security.

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Israel must adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape by enhancing its strategic autonomy. This includes bolstering its military capabilities, strengthening regional alliances, and developing a comprehensive strategy to counter Iranian influence. While the U.S. remains a critical partner, Israel’s security cannot be contingent on external decisions that may not align with its national interests.

ASSESSMENTS

Somalia and U.S. Forge Closer Combat Alliance to Crush Al-Shabaab

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Somali President and U.S. AFRICOM Chief accelerate joint counterterrorism push, eye decisive blow to Al-Shabaab insurgency.

The war against Al-Shabaab is entering a new, sharper phase—and the U.S. is doubling down. In a high-level meeting held in Mogadishu, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and General Michael E. Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), sealed what insiders are calling a renewed strategic combat pact to fast-track the elimination of Somalia’s deadliest insurgency.

With airstrikes intensifying and Somali ground operations expanding, the timing of this visit signals urgency. President Hassan emphasized that Somalia cannot afford to move at a bureaucratic pace. “Acceleration” is the new doctrine—faster raids, faster intelligence flow, and faster liberation of Al-Shabaab-held zones.

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Meanwhile, behind closed doors, Somalia’s Defense Minister Ahmed Fiqi, Army Chief Gen. Odawaa Yusuf Raage, and U.S. Ambassador Richard H. Riley convened with AFRICOM officials to map out a fresh joint blueprint. The objective: dismantle both Al-Shabaab and ISIS factions before they mutate into another regional menace like Boko Haram.

From air support to on-the-ground coordination, AFRICOM’s role is becoming more embedded. Sources close to the talks confirmed an emphasis on real-time intelligence sharing, advanced military training, and high-impact strikes aimed at crippling the terror group’s leadership and logistics.

Minister Fiqi, in his address, openly praised the U.S. for its crucial role in restoring security and hope to war-torn communities, noting how U.S.-backed missions have re-liberated territory once considered lost.

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But the stakes go beyond Somalia. With Ethiopia fragile, Sudan fractured, and Yemen in flux, the Horn of Africa risks slipping into a terrorist corridor. What Mogadishu and Washington are forging today could be the firewall tomorrow.

Bottom line: The U.S.-Somalia alliance is no longer advisory—it’s operational.
AFRICOM is not just watching Somalia’s war. It’s fighting it, shoulder to shoulder. The next 90 days will reveal whether this recalibrated campaign delivers the blow Al-Shabaab fears most: extinction.

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ASSESSMENTS

Here’s the Document: BLOCK Somalia Peacekeeping Funds

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US Senate Bill Seeks to Restrict UN Funding for African Union Mission in Somalia

New Senate bill targets Somalia, demands UN stop burning U.S. taxpayer cash on missions linked to corruption, failure, and alleged terror collusion.

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In a political grenade aimed straight at Mogadishu, three powerful Republican senators have introduced a bill to choke off U.S. taxpayer dollars funding the African Union’s floundering peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The “AUSSOM Funding Restriction Act of 2025” is not just about budget cuts — it’s a warning shot that America is done bankrolling chaos disguised as diplomacy.

Senators Jim Risch, Ted Cruz, and Rick Scott say enough is enough. The bill seeks to prohibit the use of U.S. UN contributions to support the AUSSOM mission, a direct successor to the failed AMISOM and ATMIS operations. Those efforts, costing billions over the last two decades, have done little to uproot al-Shabaab — a group that many believe maintains quiet handshakes with the same Somali officials begging for more aid.

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The bill, which targets the UN Security Council’s Resolution 2719, demands real accountability: no more rubber-stamped funding for missions with no oversight, no enforcement of human rights conditions, and no track record of civilian protection. It also instructs the U.S. Ambassador to the UN to veto any resolution attempting to sneak in funding for Somalia under the radar.

But here’s where the drama peaks. This isn’t just about cash — it’s about exposing a systemic failure. While U.S. forces bomb al-Shabaab targets, UN money — with American fingerprints all over it — floods into a broken Somali security sector plagued by corruption and infiltration.

Let’s be blunt: U.S. senators are accusing Somalia and its allies of using AUSSOM as a cover to keep the aid pipeline open, all while allegedly playing footsie with terror networks.

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The bill carves out exceptions for purely humanitarian missions and U.S. staff oversight but otherwise cuts deep. It demands independent reports from the Secretary of State on AUSSOM’s effectiveness, compliance with Resolution 2719, and how much more of this circus the American people are expected to tolerate.

“This is not foreign aid — this is a fraud aid,” one U.S. official told WARYATV anonymously. “The Somali government has shown zero progress, and now they want more U.S. funding while destabilizing their own country.”

The U.S. Senate is done writing blank checks to Somalia. With this bill, Washington is telling the UN: fund your own failures — or fix them.

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How Somalia and Al-Shabaab Are Playing the U.S. for Fools

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ASSESSMENTS

Somalia’s President Fabricates Anti-Terror Efforts to Solicit International Aid

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In a recent interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud claimed significant victories against terrorist groups in the Al Miskaad and Golis mountains, asserting that Somali forces had achieved “important successes” in these regions. However, evidence suggests that these operations have been primarily conducted by Puntland’s regional forces, not the federal government.

President Mohamud’s statements appear to overstate the federal government’s role in counter-terrorism efforts, potentially to attract international support and funding. He further alleged a collaborative threat from Al-Shabaab, ISIS, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, citing intercepted shipments of explosives and drones from Yemen to Somalia. While there have been reports of such interceptions, the extent of coordination among these groups remains unverified Asharq Al-Awsa

Critics argue that President Mohamud’s narrative serves to amplify perceived threats, thereby justifying increased foreign aid and military assistance. This strategy raises concerns about the accuracy of information disseminated by the Somali government and its implications for international policy and aid distribution.

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The international community is urged to critically assess the Somali government’s claims and ensure that support is based on verified information and effective counter-terrorism strategies.

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ASSESSMENTS

The Somali Parliament Circus That Exposes a Failed State

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While Somalia’s lower house descends into chaos, the Speaker of Parliament, Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur Madoobe, boards a flight to Algeria, hoping to lecture the Arab world about “regional cooperation” and “political challenges.” The irony could not be more grotesque.

In a week when rival Somali MPs physically clashed on the floor of parliament, and 20 lawmakers were banned for opposing the Speaker’s dictatorial overreach, Madoobe chose escape over accountability. His excuse? “Security concerns” and “parliamentary order.” His real mission? International self-legitimization at the expense of a crumbling democratic facade back home.

This is not governance. It is theater.

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The expulsion of MP Abdullahi Hashi Abiib for missing two sessions—yes, just two sessions—set the stage for this parliamentary meltdown. Critics rightly call it a politically motivated move. In any functioning legislature, absenteeism is managed with ethics committees and transparency—not autocratic purges. But Somalia’s parliament has become a rubber stamp for executive manipulation, driven by fear and factionalism.

The Speaker now plays judge, jury, and executioner. His directive to suspend 20 MPs, many of whom are vocal critics of the administration, is nothing short of a political cleansing. This authoritarian behavior, dressed up in “procedural enforcement,” is a mask for the erosion of Somali democratic norms—what little there were to begin with.

And while Somalia implodes, its National Consultative Council (NCC) meetings are repeatedly postponed, sidelined by the absence of key regional states like Puntland and Jubbaland. With no electoral roadmap, no federal cohesion, and a parliament in self-destruction mode, Somalia remains a donor-dependent shell of a state.

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The world needs to ask: How long can this charade go on?

Compare this with Somaliland. Despite international neglect and lack of formal recognition, Somaliland has conducted multiple peaceful elections, maintains relative internal security, and continues to foster genuine democratic processes. Its parliament debates laws, not fists. Its leaders don’t flee to foreign conferences during national crises.

Somalia’s elite are not just corrupt. They are complicit in the destruction of any hope for a functioning state. As the West continues to prop up Mogadishu with blind aid and diplomatic recognition, it is rewarding failure and punishing resilience. It is time to stop the delusion.

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Let this be a wake-up call. The problem isn’t just Somalia’s dysfunction. It’s the international community’s willingness to ignore it—and sideline Somaliland, the one Somali-led democracy that actually works.

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ASSESSMENTS

Gunfire in the Gulf: Bulk Carrier Ambushed off Yemen’s Coast

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High seas alert as armed boats pursue merchant ship near Aden, reigniting piracy fears and exposing regional maritime chaos.

A merchant bulk carrier is chased by armed boats near Yemen in a dramatic 2-hour incident, reigniting fears of piracy and Houthi insurgency in the Gulf of Aden.

A quiet shipping lane turned into a maritime standoff Tuesday evening when a bulk carrier traversing the Gulf of Aden was pursued for nearly two hours by multiple small, armed boats—an alarming sign that the waters off Yemen are once again boiling with threats.

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UKMTO confirmed the incident occurred 100 nautical miles east of Aden, with gunfire reported and the vessel forced into evasive maneuvers toward the Yemeni coastline. Though no casualties were reported and the ship managed to continue its course, the confrontation has set off security alarms across the maritime world.

Who were these armed men? That’s the burning question. While some suspect traditional piracy, analysts at Neptune P2P Group argue the tactics were uncharacteristic—suggesting a more dangerous twist. Could this be a dry run for Houthi-aligned maritime militia? Or a rogue coastal faction flexing its muscle?

The Houthis, fresh off a ceasefire hiatus tied to Gaza, have recently threatened to resume attacks on shipping—especially those with Israeli links. While they’ve stayed silent about this specific incident, the implications are ominous.

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What’s certain is this: piracy in the Gulf of Aden never truly died. The brief calm following the 2023 resurgence now seems like a prelude to a new wave of asymmetric sea warfare. The EU’s extension of Operation Atalanta through 2027 suddenly looks like a prophetic move.

And the danger isn’t isolated. From Somali pirates re-emerging to Houthi threats and rogue militias in war-torn Yemen, the Gulf of Aden is becoming a maritime minefield—one gunboat away from full-scale chaos.

The next incident may not end with a safe escape—but a ship taken hostage.

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ASSESSMENTS

HOUTHIS SURROUNDED! UAE Deploys Israeli Radar from Somalia – 80,000 Troops Gear Up for Ground

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No Gaza Peace. No Ceasefire. US, Israel & Gulf Forces Push Yemen Toward Full-Blown War – From Gaza to Hodeida, the battlefield expands. Somalia’s soil becomes launchpad for a regional war.

UAE deploys Israeli-made radar from Somalia to monitor Houthi threats. 80,000 Yemeni troops prep to storm Hodeida. US-Israel forces expand strikes from Gaza to Yemen.

Somalia is now a launchpad for a new regional war.

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The war machine is humming, and Somalia has just become the quiet epicenter of a new multi-front war that stretches from Gaza to the Gulf of Aden.

In Puntland’s Bosaso, the UAE has secretly activated an Israeli-made ELM-2084 radar system—originally designed to counter missile and drone threats to Israel. But now, it’s scanning Yemeni skies for Houthi threats. It’s more than surveillance—it’s a sign that Somali soil is being militarized for a larger geopolitical showdown.

The real trigger? Yemen. The internationally recognized Yemeni government is mobilizing 80,000 troops for what could be the largest ground offensive of the decade—to take back Hodeida from Houthi control. At the same time, US Air Force C-17s have been dumping military cargo in Qatar, while B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia are being armed.

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All signs point to a wider regional war.

As the USS Carl Vinson’s F-35C jets conduct missions off Oman and Israeli special forces use Bosaso as a covert hub, it’s clear: this is not a Yemen-only war—it’s an Israeli-American-Emirati counteroffensive that stretches from Tehran to the Tihama coast.

And what about Gaza? Israel has flat-out refused to include any clause in a potential Hamas ceasefire to withdraw from the Strip. The IDF continues “surgical strikes,” ambushes intensify, and yet no political breakthrough is in sight.

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Erdogan rattles sabers, threatening a “NATO-level” response and demanding EU access. Meanwhile, Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon are flaring, and Houthi drones keep raining down on southern Israel—with little warning.

The battlefield is now a full crescent—from Las Anod’s radar domes to Gaza’s underground war rooms, and from the skies over Sanaa to the waters of the Red Sea.

This is no longer about ceasefires. This is escalation by design.

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ASSESSMENTS

Somalia Buys Time in Las Anod While Somaliland Prepares to Strike Back

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SSC-Khaatumo hands over 25 prisoners in a “peace gesture”—but sources say Somaliland’s military is regrouping for a full reclaim of Las Anod.

Prime Minister Hamse Barre receives prisoners from SSC-Khaatumo in a PR move during his Las Anod visit, but Somaliland sources warn: Las Anod will be retaken.

Somalia’s so-called peace plan is nothing but a smokescreen.

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Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre just collected 25 detainees from SSC-Khaatumo, paraded as a gesture of “reconciliation” during his visit to Las Anod, a town seized in 2023 after brutal clashes with Somaliland forces. While Mogadishu frames the handover as part of a grand “Peace Program,” insiders tell WARYATV it’s little more than a strategic photo op to cover Somalia’s rising failures in Mogadishu.

The 25 prisoners—captured during the conflict that forced Somaliland forces out of Las Anod—are now in Barre’s custody, supposedly on humanitarian grounds. But this move is far from humanitarian—it’s political theater, timed to bolster Barre’s public image ahead of the National Consultative Council (NCC) summit in Mogadishu.

This is not peace. It’s positioning.

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Secret sources confirm to WARYATV that Somaliland has been quietly preparing for a return to Las Anod—not through diplomacy, but through military strength. While Mogadishu scrambles to contain Al-Shabaab inside its own capital, Barre is staging symbolic wins in Sool to distract from his administration’s failures.

The real message? Somaliland is not retreating. It is resetting.

With morale high and ground forces ready, military commanders say the republic is preparing to defend every inch—and if need be, retake Las Anod. The prisoners may be gone, but the fight is far from over.

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ASSESSMENTS

US Weapons Fuel Somali Proxy War to Block Somaliland, Trigger the Great Horn Conflict

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US-trained Somali troops armed with American weapons land in Las Anod as Mogadishu wages proxy war to derail Somaliland recognition


Somalia’s PM launches invasion of Somaliland’s Las Anod using US-funded forces, prompting Hargeisa to declare a national emergency as regional war looms.

Why now? Because Somalia is desperate—and Somaliland is winning.

As international recognition inches closer for Somaliland, Mogadishu is playing its final, dangerous card: war. On April 12, 2025, Somalia’s Prime Minister—infamous for praising Hamas and spreading antisemitic slurs—landed in occupied Las Anod, flanked by units armed and trained by the United States. This is not a diplomatic tour. It’s a calculated escalation.

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A WARYATV investigation reveals that weapons supplied by the US to fight Al-Shabaab have been diverted to the front lines in Somaliland. The same US-made rifles and vehicles once hailed as tools of counterterrorism are now in the hands of proxy militias destabilizing Las Anod, a town Somalia occupies unlawfully in clear violation of Somaliland’s sovereignty.

This conflict isn’t just local anymore. Somalia has become a launchpad for China’s first military proxy effort in Africa, and its PM is openly supporting Hamas and pushing anti-Israel narratives—despite Somaliland being a key Israeli and US partner in the Horn. The question now haunts Washington: Are American taxpayers funding terror?

In January 2023, the US delivered $9 million in military equipment to Somalia. In February, 61 tons of arms arrived via USAF transport planes. By 2025, that firepower has found its way to Las Anod, in a blatant betrayal of the mission to defeat Al-Shabaab. Somalia failed to defend its capital from jihadists, so now it exports war to Somaliland.

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In response, Somaliland’s government declared the invasion a declaration of war. Its foreign ministry vowed “decisive action” to defend sovereignty. Hargeisa’s patience is gone. The regional balance is collapsing.

Somalia’s aggression isn’t just a provocation—it’s an invitation to regional war, Chinese expansion, and a dangerous rollback of Western credibility in East Africa.

Now is the moment for Washington to choose: Stand with Somaliland and Taiwan, or lose both the Horn and the Indo-Pacific to Beijing’s axis.

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Somaliland Threatens Retaliation Over PM’s Las’anod Invasion

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