Terrorism
Extremist Violence in Africa’s Sahel Intensifies Amid Governance Challenges
A Region Gripped by Instability
The Sahel, a vast and volatile region south of the Sahara Desert, has been besieged by a surge in extremist violence over recent months, culminating in unprecedented attacks that highlight the growing capabilities of Islamist militant groups. In early September, jihadist militants targeted Bamako, Mali’s capital, for the first time in nearly a decade, raising alarm over the expanding reach of insurgents in the region. Just weeks earlier, over 100 civilians and soldiers were killed in a brutal assault in Burkina Faso, underscoring the relentless violence that has ravaged the region.
For more than a decade, the Sahel has been engulfed in a crisis marked by extremist insurgencies, political instability, and military coups. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—three nations central to the Sahel—are now governed by military juntas, each having seized power under the promise of restoring order and security. Yet, rather than stabilizing the region, the security landscape has deteriorated further.
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), more than 3,000 civilians were killed in the first half of 2023 alone—a 25 percent increase from the previous six months. The violence stems not only from jihadist groups but also from state security forces accused of widespread abuses.
The Extremist Networks Driving the Violence
Two primary groups dominate the extremist landscape in the Sahel: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Sahel. While JNIM has become increasingly embedded in local communities, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso, the Islamic State’s operations are concentrated in the Lake Chad Basin, where it commands less political influence.
Analysts point out that JNIM’s integration with local insurgent factions has granted it broader acceptance among local populations, giving it an advantage over the more fragmented and less politically entrenched Islamic State faction.
“The local populations support [JNIM] more than IS-affiliated groups,” said Shaantanu Shankar, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit. “They have integrated local rebel groups, which have close community ties.”
The insurgents, whether affiliated with al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, have inflicted terror on local populations through relentless attacks, kidnappings, and mass killings. These actions, rights groups say, likely constitute war crimes.
The Sahel’s governance crisis has worsened as the military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have severed ties with their traditional Western allies. Upon taking power, these juntas withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and formed the Alliance of Sahel States in September, aligning their security policies more closely with Russia while distancing themselves from France and the United States.
However, the introduction of Russia’s Wagner Group, a private military company, has done little to fill the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western forces. “There is a huge security vacuum after the withdrawal of the French and American military,” Shankar added. “The financial and logistical capacity of the Russian presence is limited.”
Compounding the instability is a deepening economic crisis. Economic discontent, particularly among the region’s youth, has helped fuel the rise of extremist groups. Militants have successfully recruited individuals from marginalized communities, where job opportunities are scarce, and government services are often nonexistent.
“There are very few opportunities for people in rural Sahel, especially the youth,” said Heni Nsabia, an analyst with ACLED. “People whose families and communities were targeted by state forces seek security, status, and vengeance through these groups.”
Financing Extremist Activities: A Diversified Strategy
Despite their links to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, the Sahel’s militant groups primarily finance their operations through localized means. They impose taxes on local communities, control the region’s lucrative natural resources—particularly gold—and engage in cattle theft. Trafficking, particularly of narcotics, has also become a critical revenue stream, allowing militants to maintain their operations despite international counterterrorism efforts.
The illegal trade in human trafficking, especially across the Sahel’s porous borders, has also proven profitable, with analysts warning that turmoil in Libya and changes in Niger’s migration policies could exacerbate the crisis.
“The business model that these groups developed is very diversified,” Nsabia explained. “This is why it is difficult to destroy them economically. If you target one aspect, they have other sources of revenue.”
Experts warn that the situation in the Sahel is likely to deteriorate further. With the military juntas more focused on consolidating power than addressing the root causes of extremism, insecurity is expected to worsen.
“It’s a very volatile phase, and security is projected to get worse in the next two years,” Shankar observed.
The extremist threat is no longer confined to the Sahel. Militant groups have extended their reach into West Africa’s coastal nations, including Benin and Nigeria, raising concerns that more stable regions could soon face the same violence that has plagued the Sahel.
“It’s undeniable that things are getting worse,” Nsabia said. “We should not just be talking about the Sahel, but also about Benin and Togo, where militants have ventured inland by more than 200 kilometers.”
International Response: Limited but Crucial Support
In response to the escalating threat, the United States and European nations are intensifying efforts to bolster counterterrorism initiatives in West Africa’s coastal nations. Michael Langley, the head of U.S. Africa Command, indicated that Washington was working closely with Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Benin to recalibrate military assistance in the region.
Still, a significant challenge remains: access to accurate information. The military juntas have imposed severe restrictions on journalism, controlling the narrative and determining who is labeled a jihadist. In Mali, the government has branded ethnic Tuaregs—who have long fought for greater autonomy—as jihadis, even though only a portion of them are aligned with extremist groups.
As the Sahel grapples with increasing violence and political fragility, the international community faces the daunting task of supporting fragile governments while combatting the proliferation of extremist groups. With growing instability extending beyond the region’s borders, the consequences of the Sahel crisis may soon be felt across West Africa and beyond. Whether regional and global powers can prevent further destabilization remains uncertain, as extremist groups continue to exploit the vast and vulnerable terrain of the Sahel.
Somalia on the Brink: Uganda Demands Immediate African Union Action as Al-Shabaab Surges
The Horn of Africa is burning again—and this time, the warnings are louder than ever.
Uganda’s Defense Minister Jacob Marksons Oboth sent an explosive warning to the African Union Friday, declaring that Somalia’s security architecture is collapsing under a new wave of Al-Shabaab terror. Speaking at an emergency Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) meeting in Kampala, Oboth bluntly stated that Somalia risks “losing the hard-earned gains we fought so hard to achieve” unless African forces act decisively.
The timing couldn’t be worse—or more revealing. Just 24 hours earlier, Al-Shabaab launched a devastating assault on the Somali army’s second-largest base at Wargaadhi in Middle Shabelle, exposing the grim reality: despite years of international counterterrorism efforts, the militants are back, organized, and striking at the heart of Somalia’s fragile institutions.
Oboth’s remarks were a call to arms—and a warning of wider regional collapse. “The threat of terrorism remains real and immediate,” he said, emphasizing that Al-Shabaab’s resurgence threatens not just Somalia’s unstable federal government but also the Horn of Africa’s broader security fabric. If unchecked, this could rapidly devolve into a continental crisis.
The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—the successor to AMISOM since 2024—was supposed to be the solution. Instead, its phased drawdown of peacekeepers has created lethal power vacuums across central and southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab has wasted no time exploiting these gaps, launching relentless raids, reclaiming territory, and reigniting fears of a new dark age in Somalia.
Despite intensified counteroffensives by Somali and AU forces, the facts are clear: Al-Shabaab is not beaten. It is regrouping, recalibrating, and refilling its ranks, aiming not just to survive, but to conquer.
Uganda’s urgent call puts brutal pressure on the African Union and international partners: reinforce Somalia now—or prepare to watch the entire Horn of Africa descend back into chaos.
This isn’t just Somalia’s war anymore.
It’s the region’s fight for survival.
Khadra Issa, alias Ummu Qaqaa Somalia, named as top ISIS operative as U.S. intensifies hunt for diaspora-linked extremists
The U.S. government has put a $5 million bounty on the head of Khadra Issa, also known as Ummu Qaqaa Somalia, a Somali-born Dutch national accused of serving as a key recruiter, propagandist, and operative for ISIS. Her case sends a chilling message: ISIS is no longer confined to the ruins of Raqqa—it’s networked, mobile, and still recruiting, often through diaspora channels.
Issa’s profile paints a dangerous archetype. Fluent, digitally agile, and invisible for years, she allegedly helped orchestrate suicide bombings, child concealment, and online radicalization—while operating far from the battlefields. Most shocking is her alleged role in hiding two American children after their mother died in a U.S. airstrike. The fate of those children remains unknown, a haunting reminder of ISIS’s global entanglements.
Her name is now featured on the Rewards for Justice program’s most-wanted list. This designation means the U.S. considers her a high-priority target—someone embedded in extremist networks still capable of regenerating threats worldwide.
Washington’s move is not just punitive—it’s strategic. With ISIS’s territorial grip gone, its strength lies in the shadows: in encrypted apps, digital outreach, and transnational sympathizers like Issa who blur lines between citizen and combatant.
Security experts warn that Somali-origin operatives have become critical nodes in ISIS’s decentralized revival strategy. These individuals often possess EU or Western passports, allowing them to cross borders, mask affiliations, and embed within migrant communities—becoming radical hubs.
This case also raises larger questions. How did a European national of Somali descent reach this level of influence in a terror organization? How many more are under the radar? And why has the international community failed to dismantle these recruitment pipelines?
Khadra Issa is not just a fugitive—she’s the face of modern jihadist insurgency. And as the U.S. dangles millions for her arrest, one thing is clear: the war on ISIS may be out of the headlines, but it’s far from over.
After years of entrenchment, ISIS-Somalia’s last major bastion crumbles under Puntland’s offensive.
Puntland’s latest offensive in the Calmiskaad Mountains isn’t just a military success—it’s a symbolic decapitation of ISIS-Somalia’s regional ambitions. By seizing Togga Miraale, the crown jewel of ISIS’s mountain redoubts, Puntland security forces have dismantled what analysts long described as the terror group’s last command node in the region. The caliphate fantasy is over, at least in Puntland.
This wasn’t a victory won overnight. The month-long campaign through treacherous terrain and entrenched positions was a surgical war of attrition. ISIS fighters, once emboldened by their remote stronghold and a steady supply of weapons, were ground down. With captured stockpiles and dislodged militants, Puntland has dealt ISIS a blow from which it may never recover in northeastern Somalia.
This is more than just a win for Puntland. It’s a pivotal shift in the asymmetric war against jihadist movements in the Horn. While Al-Shabaab remains a dominant threat further south, ISIS-Somalia’s collapse exposes the vulnerability of jihadist splinter factions when faced with sustained, locally-led counterterrorism backed by strategic intelligence.
Moreover, this win couldn’t come at a more geopolitically significant time. As Somalia reels from recent setbacks—including the fall of Aadan Yabaal to Al-Shabaab—Puntland’s success highlights a stark contrast in governance, security, and military capability. It sends a potent message: decentralized Somali regions like Puntland can, and will, defend their territory where the federal government has failed.
Regional players like the UAE and the U.S., both of whom quietly supported this operation with air surveillance and intel, are taking note. So should Mogadishu. As the Somali government continues to lose ground to terrorists in the south, Puntland’s battlefield dominance is not just a local triumph—it’s a rebuke of Somalia’s fragile security architecture.
The caliphate in Somalia didn’t fall with fanfare—it collapsed under the pressure of a region that refused to yield. Puntland now owns the victory. And ISIS-Somalia? It’s a name soon to be remembered only in past tense.
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The collapse of Middle Shabelle town exposes Somalia’s crumbling counteroffensive and re-energizes fears of a militant siege on the capital.
In a devastating blow to Somalia’s fragile counterinsurgency effort, Al-Shabaab militants stormed and seized the strategic town of Aadan Yabaal in Middle Shabelle—an area President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself toured just weeks earlier to inspire confidence. The government’s response? Silence. The militants’ message? We’re not done yet.
The Wednesday dawn assault, characterized by explosions, heavy artillery, and five hours of intense ground combat, ends with the fall of what was once a forward base for government operations. It’s a symbolic and strategic defeat: Aadan Yabaal had served as a key operations center against militant-controlled areas since its recapture in 2022.
Al-Shabaab’s Shabelle offensive is working. With over 50% more attacks in 2025 compared to last year, the militant group is flipping the script. After federal gains in 2022, the insurgents are now taking back ground—and fast. This isn’t just a tactical setback; it’s a psychological one.
Sources indicate the government’s forces conducted a “tactical withdrawal.” But it’s hard to spin the loss of a heavily militarized town as anything less than a collapse. Videos released by Al-Shabaab show fighters unchallenged inside the town, flaunting weapons and capturing vehicles. The symbolism is undeniable: The militants are organized, mobile, and emboldened.
Even more concerning is what this loss portends. The pattern suggests a strategic encirclement of Mogadishu. Villages within 50 kilometers of the capital have fallen. Assassination attempts on the president are growing. The Aadan Yabaal loss isn’t an isolated flare-up—it’s a warning shot.
Community militias and remnants of the federal army are reportedly preparing a counteroffensive. But the truth is, Al-Shabaab has just sent a chilling message: the war is far from over—and they’re winning battles that matter.
If Aadan Yabaal can fall so easily, how long before Mogadishu becomes more than just a target?
Trump eyes embassy closures as US rejects UN plan to fund peacekeepers in Somalia — Mogadishu’s last lifeline in peril.
The US shocks the UN by rejecting funding for African Union forces in Somalia, just as Trump weighs closing the US Embassy in Mogadishu. With Al-Shabaab advancing and oil politics heating up, is Somalia doomed to implode?
The United States just signaled the collapse of Somalia’s last fragile security architecture — and it did so with chilling clarity. Washington has publicly rejected UN efforts to fund the African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), effectively gutting any hope for predictable peacekeeping operations in a country teetering on the edge of collapse.
This isn’t just a bureaucratic snub — it’s a geopolitical death sentence for Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants are already testing the vacuum, launching a multi-pronged assault on Adan Yabaal, a key military base in Middle Shabelle. If confirmed, the town’s fall would mark the largest strategic loss since Somalia launched its offensive against terror in 2022.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the Security Council: no funding, no peace. But the US—under Trump’s second-term posture—is slamming the door shut, labeling Somalia as unfit for a hybrid funding model under Resolution 2719. Diplomats are in a panic. Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly planning to close up to 30 diplomatic missions, with Mogadishu’s embassy topping the list.
Somalia’s response? Desperation disguised as diplomacy. The FGS is now peddling oil blocks in contested territories like Nugaal Valley. In a flashy announcement on X, Somalia’s ambassador to the US declared “Somalia is open for drilling,” targeting American firms with an offer it legally and militarily cannot secure.
Somalia’s Ambassador to the United States, Dahir Hassan Arab
The move comes after Somalia’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo — a region still engulfed in the political wreckage of its war with Somaliland.
This isn’t about development. It’s about weaponizing recognition, resource manipulation, and fake sovereignty in a bid to win Trump’s favor and undermine Somaliland’s momentum.
But while Hargeisa builds forests and attracts foreign media praise, Mogadishu is drowning in debt, insurgency, and denial. The West is tuning out, and even the UN is losing patience. The US, once Somalia’s diplomatic oxygen, is now pulling the plug.
Somalia is not rising — it’s being unplugged.
With the Sahel in chaos, ISIS-backed factions push deeper into West Africa, aiming to create a new Islamic State across porous borders.
As counterinsurgency fails in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, ISIS-linked terror groups are marching toward Ghana, Benin, and Togo—threatening to remake the region into a caliphate.
A dangerous transformation is unfolding across West and North Africa—one that mirrors the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This time, the black flag isn’t flying over Mosul or Raqqa—but is inching its way through Cameroon, Benin, Ghana, and Togo.
What was once a regional insurgency is morphing into a transnational movement. From deadly attacks on Cameroonian soldiers at the Nigerian border to dismantled ISIS cells in Morocco and Spain, signs of a looming continental jihad are flashing bright red.
Analysts from the Middle East Institute and Israel’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism now warn that ISIS’s territorial campaign in the Sahel could escalate into a full-blown Islamic State in West Africa. The battlefield: vast forests, porous borders, and regions crippled by fragile governance. The model: weaponizing local grievances, exploiting economic despair, and smuggling across ungoverned spaces like Nigeria’s Sambisa and Burkina Faso’s W-Arly-Pendjari Complex.
The group’s rise is enabled by collapsing state structures. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all been rocked by coups and anti-Western sentiment, forcing France and the U.S. to reduce or reorient their military footprints. Into this vacuum, ISIS and its affiliates are pouring in—armed, funded, and inspired.
Charles Lister compares the scale of ISIS activity in the Sahel to the 2013–14 blitzkrieg in Iraq. “It’s an army marching at will,” he says. Their aim is not just terror. It’s governance—enforced through Sharia, brutality, and propaganda.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed warns of a 250% surge in attacks in West Africa in just two years. Youth marginalization, skyrocketing unemployment, and rising extremism are creating a combustible mix. If this isn’t checked, ISIS may no longer just haunt the region—it could rule it.
Bottom line: This is no longer about Boko Haram or lone-wolf attacks. This is an insurgency with state-building ambitions — Watch West Africa become the next caliphate.
Sheegow Ahmed Ali’s death in custody ignites controversy amid denials of foul play.
The sudden death of Somali military officer Sheegow Ahmed Ali, who passed away Monday night at Mogadishu’s Digfeer Hospital after complications from Hepatitis B and liver failure, has reignited complex tensions and suspicions within Somalia’s political and military landscape. While authorities swiftly dismissed claims of foul play, asserting medical transparency, the incident nonetheless highlights deeper systemic vulnerabilities within Somali state institutions.
Sheegow, who was sentenced last year following violent clashes between his forces and government troops, held significant operational roles, including combating the al-Shabaab insurgency in Lower Shabelle. His incarceration alone had already polarized opinion, and his untimely death in custody only amplifies existing distrust towards federal authorities, especially among his Jareerweyne clan community.
Despite firm denials by Minister of Health Dr. Ali Haaji Aden and public acceptance from Sheegow’s family regarding the official medical findings, widespread rumors of potential poisoning illustrate the pervasive distrust between the state and certain clan communities. This undercurrent of suspicion is symptomatic of a broader crisis: a fragile relationship between the Somali government and various clan-based factions.
For the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, handling this sensitive case transparently and effectively is imperative to maintaining stability. Any perception of foul play, regardless of official denials, risks undermining government credibility, particularly at a moment when Mogadishu seeks to bolster domestic legitimacy and strengthen security forces amid persistent al-Shabaab threats.
The Somali authorities must do more than merely deny wrongdoing. Comprehensive transparency, independent verification, and open channels of communication are crucial. The case of Sheegow Ahmed Ali isn’t just about one individual’s tragic demise; it’s a litmus test for the credibility of Somalia’s military justice system and governance institutions.
With the nation’s stability already precarious, this incident underscores the urgent need for reform in military custody practices, improved medical oversight for detainees, and greater governmental accountability. The Somali people will undoubtedly watch closely as this story unfolds, determining whether it represents a turning point toward justice and transparency—or another missed opportunity that deepens divisions.
Rising Al-Shabaab Attacks Challenge Mogadishu’s Security Apparatus, Exposing Critical Weaknesses.
Mortar shells rained down on Mogadishu for the second consecutive day, underscoring Al-Shabaab’s renewed aggression and the Somali government’s glaring security failures. Sunday morning’s attack, targeting the strategic Aden Adde International Airport and heavily fortified Halane compound, highlights a critical vulnerability in Somalia’s fight against terrorism.
Suspected Al-Shabaab militants unleashed six mortar rounds, two of which detonated in the densely populated Kaawa Godey neighborhood, injuring at least two civilians—a woman and a child. This attack followed closely on the heels of Saturday’s devastating shelling in the Warta Nabada and Boondheere districts, injuring six civilians, including personnel from the National Theater.
The brazen strikes, aimed at critical infrastructure like the international airport and the Halane compound—home to the United Nations, foreign embassies, and African Union peacekeepers—are not just symbolic. They are tactical attempts by Al-Shabaab to project power and sow chaos in the heart of Somalia’s capital. Despite years of international aid, training, and military support, the capital remains susceptible to Al-Shabaab’s persistent guerrilla tactics.
The repeated attacks expose deep-seated intelligence and security lapses. Mogadishu’s authorities remain reactive, caught off guard despite clear precedent. This demands a tough reassessment of the security framework. With Al-Shabaab regaining momentum, Mogadishu risks descending back into chronic instability unless the government responds with decisive, proactive measures.
Somalia stands at a crossroads. To truly neutralize the Al-Shabaab threat, Mogadishu must overhaul its security strategies, intensify intelligence operations, and reinforce its defenses. Failure to do so will only embolden militants further, putting countless Somali lives—and regional stability—at risk.
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