The African Union’s new peace mission in Somalia—AUSSOM—faces early collapse from financing woes, geopolitical rivalries, and internal Somali divisions. Without unified support, another war-torn era may be inevitable.
As the African Union launches AUSSOM in Somalia, funding delays, fractured alliances, and donor fatigue threaten peace in a nation on the brink of renewed conflict.
The African Union’s latest intervention in Somalia, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), was meant to be a beacon of hope. Instead, it risks becoming the graveyard of yet another multilateral peace effort in a country that has bled through every alphabet soup of international missions: UNOSOM, AMISOM, ATMIS—and now AUSSOM.
This isn’t just about peacekeeping. AUSSOM is a geopolitical tug-of-war, with Somalia as the unwilling prize.
Despite being greenlit by the UN Security Council in January 2025, AUSSOM’s launch has already been kneecapped by financial chaos. The US—under its new Trump-era administration—has slammed the brakes on predictable UN financing, undermining Resolution 2719 and pushing for transitional mechanisms. Meanwhile, the EU, long the financial engine of African peace missions, is showing signs of donor fatigue, wary of throwing billions into what increasingly looks like a strategic black hole.
And while Western donors hesitate, regional powers like Turkey and Egypt are moving in aggressively—not to stabilize Somalia, but to carve it up into zones of influence. Each supports different militias and trains rival security units. Somalia, which should be focused on constitutional reform and integrating security forces, is now juggling a dozen foreign agendas and arming for the next round of internal warfare.
The Somali government’s own dysfunction only deepens the mess. From the federal feud with Puntland and Jubaland to the rising tensions with Somaliland, the country is imploding under the weight of conflicting visions and external meddling. Arrest warrants, firefights, and disputed elections define Somalia’s 2024-2025 political calendar. And into this minefield, AUSSOM has walked—underfunded, divided, and running out of time.
Without serious, coordinated multilateral support—especially financial—the AU mission could implode, leaving Somalia wide open to warlords, terrorists, and proxy powers. Gulf states and Turkey may hold the purse strings now, but the only thing they’re buying is fragmentation.
Qatar’s upcoming donor conference in April could be the last lifeline. But if the international community fails to unite around AUSSOM, Somalia may not survive another shattered peace mission. What comes next won’t be another transition—it will be a collapse.
