Somalia has condemned Israel in the halls of the United Nations. Its ambassador in New York, Abubakar Osman Baale, branded the recent Israeli strike in Doha as a “direct threat to the sovereignty of Qatar.” Mogadishu’s words were clear and defiant: solidarity with Qatar, denunciation of Israel.
But behind the rhetoric lies a far darker, more immediate truth: Somalia is being strangled by Al-Shabab in the south and ISIS offshoots in Puntland’s rugged north.
And no country has mastered the art of precision counterterror warfare more effectively than Israel.
It is a paradox too sharp to ignore. Somalia rails against Israel in public forums, while in private it struggles to contain one of the deadliest extremist insurgencies in the world. Al-Shabab’s bomb-makers are innovating faster than the Somali National Army can adapt. In the north, ISIS fighters are embedding themselves in mountain redoubts that Somali forces have failed to root out for years.
Billions of dollars in Western aid and years of U.S. drone strikes have not broken these networks. If anything, the insurgencies are learning, dispersing, adapting.
Now imagine an alternative: Israeli Air Force squadrons, the same F-35s that flew undetected to Doha, conducting surgical strikes against Al-Shabab leadership compounds or ISIS caves in Puntland.
Israel’s Shin Bet and Mossad running the kind of intelligence penetration operations in Somalia that they have perfected in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Israeli cyber units dismantling Al-Shabab’s online propaganda in days, not years. Somalia’s terror problem would look radically different.
The irony is brutal. To attract more global aid, Somalia must demonstrate that it is crushing terrorists. But its own military capacity is stretched thin, and its international partners are fatigued.
A secret partnership with Israel would be the most effective military shortcut available. Yet Somalia’s leadership clings to its anti-Israel posture, repeating pan-Arab talking points while jihadists tighten their grip inside its own borders.
History suggests this contradiction cannot last. If Mogadishu continues condemning Israel while failing to deliver security, international patience will run out. Already, Western capitals view Somalia as an endless sinkhole of aid, corruption, and unfinished battles.
At some point, leaders in Washington, London, and even the Gulf will quietly ask: why not let Israel do in Somalia what it has done everywhere else—hunt terrorists with ruthless precision?
The prediction is stark: Somalia will face a moment of reckoning. Either it doubles down on public hostility toward Israel and risks watching its territory further consumed by jihadists, or it swallows political pride and quietly courts the very air force it now condemns.
The reality is that no country, not even the United States, has Israel’s unique blend of operational daring, intelligence depth, and battlefield efficiency.
For Somalia, the war against Al-Shabab and ISIS may ultimately be won—or lost—not in Mogadishu’s speeches at the UN, but in whether it can overcome its own political taboos and accept help from the one air force capable of rewriting its security map.
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