Militant shelling exposes Mogadishu’s crumbling stability as Turkey and UAE wage covert power war over Somalia’s future.
Al-Shabaab’s mortar attack on the Halane Base Camp highlights a deeper crisis: Somalia’s leadership is caught between Turkish and Emirati pressure as the country’s fragile sovereignty buckles under foreign interference.
On Tuesday morning, mortar fire echoed through Mogadishu as Al-Shabaab militants launched a brazen attack on the heavily guarded Halane Base Camp, home to the United Nations, Western embassies, and African Union forces. Six shells rained down, shaking one of the most fortified zones in East Africa, as the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group once again reminded the world that Somalia remains dangerously unstable despite international presence and promises of progress.
But this wasn’t just another attack. It was a warning shot in a much bigger war—one not just waged by jihadists, but by two regional superpowers Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, whose geopolitical chess match is now threatening to destroy what’s left of Somalia’s central government.
While Somali authorities stayed silent on casualties, Al-Shabaab quickly claimed credit. Their aim is no longer just terrorism—it’s strategic disruption. With President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud politically weakened, the terror group senses opportunity. And they’re not alone.
Turkey and the UAE are tearing Somalia apart from within. Ankara has reportedly suspended security assistance to the Somali National Army, demanding that Villa Somalia cancel all prior cooperation agreements with Abu Dhabi. In retaliation, the Emirates are threatening to cut the salaries of thousands of Somali troops, unless Mogadishu voids the oil exploration deal it signed with Turkey.
Somalia’s sovereignty is now collateral damage in a proxy war over ports, oil, and political loyalty. The Turks control training camps, military bases, and increasingly Somali airspace.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab thrives in the chaos. The mortars falling on Halane are a symptom of a deeper sickness: a capital city where decisions are made not by Somalis, but by foreign generals and foreign oil companies.
President Hassan Sheikh’s days appear numbered. With elections looming and public trust evaporating, Villa Somalia is not only vulnerable to insurgent fire but to diplomatic blackmail.
This is no longer about rebuilding Somalia—it’s about who owns it. And right now, the vultures are circling.
Al-Shabaab’s mortar shells may have rocked Halane, but the bigger explosion is political. Somalia’s future is being auctioned off between Turkey and the UAE, and Al-Shabaab is just capitalizing on the chaos. If Mogadishu continues down this path, the real question is not who governs Somalia—but whether there will be anything left to govern.
