Editor's Pick
From Germany, ‘War Influencers’ Incite Violence in Somalia
Ayub Abdirizak can be found in many video clips online, including this one, uploaded to Facebook in June 2024Image: Gen.Ayub Abdirizak/Facebook
And he built his social media career in Germany, where he arrived in 2017 and remained for about seven years, operating under the radar of authorities while encouraging bloodshed back home.
“Take the guns and fight,” Ayub urges his followers in a video he posted in late 2022. Offering what he calls practical advice from personal experience, he tells fighters to climb tall buildings to spot enemies at a distance. “Shoot any person on the highway once you see they are wearing a military uniform,” he says. And it’s not just the military who is the enemy in this scenario, Ayub tells his audience: People who refuse to let them enter buildings to take their rooftop positions should be “shot on the forehead” and left with a “bullet mark on his face.”
As now uncovered by DW’s investigative team in collaboration with the German public broadcaster ARD, German authorities eventually took notice of Ayub’s efforts at incitement. We set out to trace his path — and study the destructive influence he wields. The investigation also examined the reach of another war influencer who continues to use Germany as a haven to call for violence back in Somalia.
A violent path
Somalia has grappled with armed conflict and volatile politics for decades. With the federal government constantly fighting the militant Al-Shabab group for more than a decade, longer-running deep-rooted conflicts between the clans that dominate Somali society have complicated efforts to build national unity and institute effective governance. Amid such instability, several Somali regions have forged their own political paths.
Ayub’s story is closely tied to the often-violent rivalry between two regions in northern Somalia. Puntland is governed by President Said Abdullahi Deni of the Majerteen clan, whom Ayub supports in his videos. Neighboring Somaliland declared independence in 1991, although the self-proclaimed republic failed to gain international recognition. Violence frequently erupts on the border between Puntland and Somaliland.

Ayub seems to take pride in detailing the violence of his youth in Somalia for his online followers. “I left my family when I was 13 years old and took a gun,” Ayub, who is now in his late 30s, says in a YouTube video. He tells viewers that he fought in more than 30 battles when he “used to be a clan militant.”
Several sources, including a contact close to the current Puntland administration, told DW and ARD that Ayub was among the hijackers who held ships and hostages for ransom during the peak years of piracy off the Horn of Africa. Two seamen on a ship that was under the control of pirates from March 2010 through December 2012 told us their captors included a man called Ayub, who was tall and slim and spoke with a deep, resonant voice.
Life in Germany
As DW and ARD were able to confirm, Ayub first entered Germany in 2017.
He applied for asylum, but his application was rejected in 2020. However, he was allowed to stay as a “tolerated” refugee, a status that comes with fewer rights than recognized asylum.
According to his Facebook page, Ayub lived in Hamburg. Several short TikTok clips posted in 2022 show him in the city and elsewhere in northern Germany with friends.
But events would soon draw him back to Somalia.
On February 6, 2023, violence erupted in Las Anod, the capital of the Sool region. The dominant Dhulbahante clan, which has long sought to separate from Somaliland, seems to have the backing of the Puntland regional administration in its efforts.
Hundreds of people were killed in the initial clashes; hundreds of thousands more were displaced.

As a tolerated foreign national, Ayub was not officially permitted to travel freely. However, in November 2023, he posted a clip of a trip to Somalia, where he was greeted and cheered by supporters. One video, published on November 10, 2023, features Ayub alongside a group of fighters, sitting on a military vehicle and firing a Russian-developed anti-aircraft cannon.
In fact, research by ARD and DW found that Ayub made at least one round trip to Somalia while residing in Germany. The last video showing him in Germany was uploaded to his TikTok in July 2024. He is seen walking in fatigues past the town hall of Neubrandenburg in the northeasternmost state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
In late 2024, Ayub left Germany and returned to Somalia. DW and ARD were able to confirm that he has since joined the Puntland Defense Force.
Another voice of hate from Germany
At least one other Somali war influencer continues to incite hatred from within Germany. Yacqwub Siyaad preaches violence to more than half a million followers on Facebook and about 230,000 on TikTok.
In several videos posted in 2023, Yacqwub, who shares Ayub’s cause, encourages his followers to attack their opponents: “Shell them day and night and then at last overrun their camp, cut off their heads.”
In another, he says: “These pigs are mine. I will drive them out of their holes and dance on their corpses.” He calls on viewers to “go to war” and “slaughter the enemy.” Being wounded or even killed, he claims, “is happiness.”
Yacqwub openly expresses his homophobia: “Kill those creatures. Remove them from society. Flog them.”
Confirmed by DW and ARD’s research, Yacqwub resides near Düsseldorf. He openly expresses hostility toward Germany. In a TikTok video, he says he lives “among infidels in the country of infidels.”

Like Ayub, Yacqwub has traveled to Somalia since moving to Germany. In the summer of 2023, a few months into the Las Anod conflict, he shared a picture of himself wearing a uniform alongside armed fighters. Another image shows him holding an AK-47. And, in a video clip, he is meeting a group of combatants, likely in one of the region’s desert areas.
Currently, he is back in Germany. Returning to Somalia does not appear to be a viable option for Yacqwub — he would risk being arrested upon arrival. In January 2025, a Puntland military court sentenced him in absentia to 10 years in prison on charges of using his YouTube channel to spread disinformation. The circumstances that led to this verdict are unclear.
Influencers’ ‘information warfare’
Influencers from abroad play a “very destructive role” in Somalia and have a “major impact” on the situation, said Moustafa Ahmad, a security analyst based in Somaliland. He describes their online activity as “information warfare.”

In addition to spreading hate messages, Yacqwub uses his social media platforms to raise money within the Somali diaspora. He calls on his female followers to “sell your gold and donate the money.”
Jamal Osman, a Somali journalist working for international media, said war influencers had sometimes raised tens of thousands of euros within an hour — money that “is often used to buy weapons.”
Osman describes Ayub as charismatic: “He knows what buttons to press to provoke people into action.”
Well-connected in Germany
The influencers are known in the Somali community in Germany. DW and ARD talked to one Somali who has been living in Germany for several years and has been monitoring Ayub’s and Yacqwub’s social media activities for a long time. He said there was a simple reason why they can post virtually anything they want without fear of the authorities: “They speak Somali — and hardly anyone understands it.” He said anyone who did would still be unlikely to report the influencers. “Most people are afraid of them”.
Their fame has even made Ayub and Yacqwub sought-after interlocutors within the Somali diaspora, where they are seen by some as effective at attracting attention to causes and mobilizing support.
During his time in Germany, Ayub appears to have maintained a good relationship with Mohamed Abdulahi, the chairman of the nonprofit Somali-European Cooperation e.V. (SEKO). In a video, Abdulahi expresses his deep appreciation for Ayub’s contributions to the organization’s success. “I salute you, Kaptan Ayub,” Abdulahi says. “Thank you so very much.” In another clip, published in 2022, Abdulahi is talking to both Ayub and Yacqwub, sitting right between them. When introducing Ayub, Abdulahi refers to him as a “role model who plays a major role to assist the Somali people.”

ARD and DW presented Abdulahi with several examples of the influencers’ efforts at incitement. He admitted the content was “brutal” and “not good,” and that this needed to be investigated and condemned. He said, however, that he was “not the one to judge” and that one must also take into account that these statements were made in the context of war, where there are always different sides and perspectives. He said repeatedly that he had not seen those videos before.
Abdulahi called his relationship with Ayub “friendship” and said, “You can just work really well with him.” He said SEKO had approached Ayub and Yacqwub in the past to “ask them for support in reaching people so they can make an announcement for us.”
When asked whether he could imagine asking for their support in the future, Abdulahi was evasive. After repeated questioning, he acknowledged that, having watched the videos, it “is not good to keep receiving support from them.”
Source; Esther Felden | Mariel Müller
By DW and German public broadcaster ARD found.
Analysis
China’s EUV Breakthrough and the AI Warfare Balance
China’s reported development of a prototype extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine—a critical piece of technology long monopolized by Western firms—may have implications far beyond commercial competition in chips. Sources say that Chinese scientists, including former engineers from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML, assembled a working EUV prototype capable of generating the extreme ultraviolet light needed to etch the tiny circuits used in advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
This marks a significant step toward Beijing’s goal of self-sufficiency in chip production and could reshape how China participates in the global AI and military competition.
Why EUV Matters for AI and Military Power
EUV lithography machines are essential for producing the most advanced chips that power artificial intelligence models, data centers, and high-performance computing—technologies increasingly central to AI-driven military systems and defense capabilities. These chips are a core enabler of autonomous systems, real-time battlefield decision-making, and advanced signal processing. Without access to EUV, a country is effectively shut out of producing the hardware foundations of cutting-edge AI.
For years, export controls by the United States and its allies have restricted China’s access to EUV machines and advanced AI chips precisely because of their dual-use nature—civilian but also critical for military systems. These controls are intended to slow China’s progress in military applications of AI and maintain Western technological superiority.
China’s first EUV prototype suggests it could circumvent some layers of that control, potentially accelerating its ability to internally produce high-end semiconductors that drive AI advances in both commercial and military domains. While the prototype is not yet producing chips, its ability to generate EUV light is a milestone that many analysts believed was years away.
The AI Arms Race and Global Military Balance
Advanced semiconductors are not a luxury—they are strategic military assets. In modern warfare, AI-enabled systems are proliferating rapidly: autonomous drones, sensor networks, real-time command and control, and predictive analytics all depend on advanced chips. As a result, the race for AI superiority overlaps directly with military competition between major powers. Observers often frame this competition as an “AI Cold War,” in which dominance in AI technology and hardware translates into battlefield advantage, deterrence capability, and geopolitical influence.
If China can develop and mass-produce its own advanced chips using domestic EUV technology, it could narrow the technology gap that has so far given the United States and its allies an edge in military AI applications. That includes everything from autonomous systems to real-time battlefield simulations and secure AI-driven cyber defense. The ability to control this part of the supply chain would reduce China’s vulnerability to export controls and strengthen its position in future conflict scenarios where AI plays a decisive role.
Policy and Strategic Implications
For the United States and its partners, this development raises hard questions about the assumptions underlying current export controls and military planning. To date, U.S. efforts have aimed to contain China’s access to critical semiconductor manufacturing tools and advanced AI hardware, seeing this as fundamental to maintaining a strategic advantage across civilian and defense sectors. That strategy is grounded in the belief that access to high-performance computing and AI chips underpins future battlefield success and strategic deterrence.
However, if China continues to close the technological gap—even incrementally—it could force a recalibration of how export controls, multilateral alliances, and technology policy are employed to maintain an AI lead. This shift could also affect allied nations that currently benefit from U.S. chip technology dominance, pushing them to reassess their own semiconductor strategies and defense modernization plans.
Not a Done Deal—Yet
It is important to emphasize that China’s EUV prototype is still not mass-producing chips and remains far less sophisticated than the machines used by industry leaders like TSMC or Intel. Many technical hurdles remain, particularly in optics and production scalability. Critics also note that successfully generating EUV light, while significant, does not automatically translate into full chipmaking capability.
Nevertheless, the development signals that China’s resolve to master the hardest elements of semiconductor manufacturing is stronger than many analysts had expected—underscoring how semiconductor technology is now inseparable from global competition, economic strategy, and military balance.
Conclusion: A New Dimension of the AI Arms Race
China’s reported EUV prototype does not yet rewrite the rules of the global semiconductor landscape, but it does redefine the timeline and stakes. In an era where artificial intelligence increasingly shapes military strategy and operational capability, control over the hardware that fuels AI is no longer a commercial advantage alone—it is a strategic imperative.
As rivals pursue their own national semiconductor goals, the emergence of China’s EUV capabilities could mark the beginning of a more contested, multipolar era in both technology and military power.
Editor's Pick
Why the U.S. Is Turning Abandoned Prisons into ICE Detention Centers
Across the United States, long-shuttered prisons — some with histories of abuse, neglect, and civil rights violations — are being quietly reopened to serve as new detention centers for immigrants under the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). What had once been facilities closed by local authorities for failing basic standards are now being repurposed amid a historic surge in immigration enforcement.
The Trump administration has dramatically expanded immigration detention as part of its effort to accelerate deportations and “secure the border,” creating a demand for tens of thousands of additional beds beyond the federal government’s existing infrastructure. To meet that demand, ICE has reportedly turned to private prison companies to reactivate previously inactive facilities that had been mothballed — despite troubling past records.
According to El País, facilities such as the North Lake Correctional Facility in Michigan and the Midwest Regional Reception Center (MRRC) in Kansas have been reopened or are being pressed into service to house migrants, with private operators CoreCivic and GEO Group securing no-bid federal contracts to run them. Those companies have histories of civil rights complaints and oversight failures, raising alarms among activists and human rights groups who say the expansion risks repeating past abuses under a new designation. EL PAÍS English
Critics note that these facilities were closed for reasons including systemic understaffing, dangerous conditions, and, in some cases, documented violence and neglect — conditions that civil liberties organizations fear will resurface once inmates are again confined behind their walls. El País reports that reopening such centers has boosted stocks for CoreCivic and GEO Group even as advocacy groups warn that “cashing in” on immigrant detention escalates a system already under heavy scrutiny.
Local Governments Left in the Dark
In some communities, local officials say they have little information about whether or how these closed prisons might be repurposed. In Colorado, KUNC reported that mayors and county administrators in several towns learned only through news coverage that ICE had expressed interest in reopening shuttered private prisons to detain immigrants. Contracts with private operators, they said, would not require local approval, leaving communities unsure about what might come.
Officials in towns like Walsenburg and Hudson noted they had no direct notice of federal plans, and that private prison companies had approached ICE about potential contracts, but the details remained unclear. In some instances, companies had begun advertising for detention staff positions contingent on facilities being revived — a sign that momentum toward reopening is building even without clear community buy-in.
A Broader Pattern of Expansion
This push to reopen old facilities fits into a larger federal strategy of rapidly expanding detention capacity. ICE has historically relied on private prison companies to provide space beyond what the government operates directly, but the sheer scale of reopened sites and the speed with which they are being repurposed have alarmed advocates. Public records and reporting suggest that ICE already detains most immigrants in facilities run by for-profit contractors with longstanding criticisms for poor treatment and oversight, according to the Brennan Center for Justice and other watchdog organizations.
Civil liberties groups argue that rather than investing in humane alternatives to detention or addressing root causes of migration, the federal government is doubling down on a punitive model that echoes the broader U.S. carceral system. The specter of reopening prisons that had been closed due to poor conditions or community opposition raises questions about whether lessons from past failures have been learned — or simply ignored in the rush to expand capacity.
Human Rights and Policy Implications
With immigration arrests and detention numbers far outpacing historical norms, reopening old prisons signals a shift toward scaling up enforcement infrastructure at a time of sharp debate over immigration policy. Critics worry that the human cost of detention — including inadequate medical care, isolation, and limited oversight — will be repeated if new safeguards are not implemented. Meanwhile, many communities remain largely unaware of how federal decisions will affect local resources and social dynamics.
At the core of the controversy lies a broader question about American values and civil liberties: can a system that expands detention capacity without robust accountability, transparency, and respect for human dignity truly claim to protect the rule of law?
In the process of reopening these shuttered prisons for ICE use, some fear the answer is slipping further away.
Editor's Pick
Ethiopia Sets June 2026 Date for 7th National General Election
Ethiopia will hold its 7th General Election on June 1, 2026, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced on Tuesday, marking the formal start of a long electoral cycle in a country still navigating political tension and institutional reform.
NEBE Chairperson Melatwork Hailu said the Board has already launched a series of pre-election preparations aimed at ensuring a more organized and technologically supported process.
Those steps include restructuring branch offices, assessing the readiness of polling stations, and rolling out nationwide training for political parties to help them communicate their platforms effectively to the public.
For the first time, candidate registration will be conducted through a custom-built digital platform, allowing political parties and independent contenders to file their applications online.
Melatwork noted that the transition to digital systems is designed to reduce delays, strengthen verification, and modernize Ethiopia’s electoral infrastructure.
Voter registration will also follow a hybrid model—partially conducted through NEBE’s new software and partially through manual systems to ensure accessibility in areas with limited digital connectivity.
The Board is additionally finalizing a separate digital system to register election observers, a move officials say will expand transparency and improve monitoring during the 2026 vote.
NEBE’s announcement signals an early push to stabilize electoral expectations and give political actors a clear timeline ahead of what is expected to be a pivotal national vote.
Editor's Pick
China Tests Hypersonic Jet Aiming to Circle the Globe in Seven Hours
China Tests Hypersonic Jet Aiming to Circle the Globe in Seven Hours.
China’s aviation ambitions are accelerating at extraordinary speed. The country is developing a hypersonic jet capable of flying at Mach 16 — fast enough to circle the planet in just seven hours — in what could become one of the most dramatic leaps in commercial air travel since the dawn of the jet age.
The aircraft, designed by Beijing-based Lingkong Tianxing, is moving from concept toward reality. The company has already completed successful test flights of its Yunxing prototype at Mach 4, roughly 3,070 mph. Engineers are now conducting advanced trials on a new-generation engine designed to push the aircraft into true hypersonic territory.
If the program advances as planned, long-haul routes would be transformed. A journey such as London to New York — currently an eight-hour transatlantic flight — could be reduced to about 90 minutes, surpassing even the Concorde’s fastest record of under three hours.
Lingkong Tianxing confirmed that its Yunxing demonstrator flew successfully in October, with additional propulsion tests scheduled throughout November. Each step marks incremental progress toward a maiden hypersonic flight, which the company hopes to achieve within the next decade.
A legacy of speed: from Concorde to the hypersonic race
The promise of ultra-fast civilian travel revives a dream that captivated the world half a century ago. The Concorde, operated by British Airways and Air France, was the first and only supersonic passenger jet to enter commercial service.
Flying at Mach 2, it cut transatlantic travel times in half and embodied the pinnacle of Cold War–era aerospace engineering.
But the Concorde also revealed the limits of early supersonic travel. Operating costs were immense, its fuel burn was high, and its sonic booms sharply restricted where it could fly. A deadly crash in 2000, followed by surging fuel prices and weakened demand after 9/11, led to the aircraft’s retirement in 2003.
In the years since, the industry’s push toward supersonic and hypersonic travel has periodically faded and re-emerged. Today, advances in materials science, engine design, and computational aerodynamics have reignited optimism that the next generation of ultra-fast flight may succeed where the Concorde could not.
A global race to the next frontier
China is not alone in the race. Designers such as Oscar Viñals have proposed aircraft capable of exceeding Mach 5. NASA’s X-59 program is experimenting with technologies to dramatically reduce sonic booms.
American firms like Venus Aerospace envision jets that could complete transatlantic routes in under an hour. Meanwhile, Chinese companies like Cormac are working on supersonic aircraft quieter than a car at Mach 1.
But among the many contenders, Lingkong Tianxing’s hypersonic Yunxing project is the most audacious — and the most advanced in real-world testing.
Whether the jet ultimately reaches its proposed Mach-16 capability remains an open question. The technological and regulatory challenges are enormous. Yet the company’s rapid progress signals that a new era of extreme-speed passenger flight may no longer be a distant fantasy.
For now, the Yunxing program stands at the forefront of a high-stakes, global technological race — one that could redefine both military and civilian aviation and fundamentally reshape how the world moves.
Editor's Pick
The New Dubai? Foreigners to Own Prime Saudi Real Estate
Saudi Arabia’s decision to allow foreign nationals to purchase real estate beginning in January 2026 marks one of the most consequential shifts in the Kingdom’s economic strategy in decades, signaling a deeper turn toward global investment and the structural ambitions of Vision 2030.
The policy, which will open designated zones in Riyadh, Jeddah, NEOM and other major development corridors to expatriates and international buyers, represents a calibrated move toward economic liberalization in a country historically defined by strict ownership rules. Properties in Makkah and Madinah will remain governed by special regulations.
Under the government’s timeline, the new law is set to take effect in early 2026, with detailed regulations to be released within six months on the “Istitaa” digital platform. Officials say this window is intended to provide clarity to investors, developers, and financial institutions preparing for what is expected to become one of the world’s largest emerging real estate markets.
The policy aligns with a broader effort to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil by drawing long-term foreign capital into the country’s infrastructure and housing sectors.
Property ownership, Saudi officials argue, encourages expatriates to transition from temporary workers to invested residents — deepening the professional class required for expanding industries such as finance, technology, and advanced manufacturing.
A central driver of the reform is the need to attract private investment into the Kingdom’s mega-projects, including NEOM, the Red Sea development, and the rapid transformation of Riyadh.
Opening real estate to foreign ownership converts a previously limited market into a globally tradable asset class, offering new revenue streams for banks, developers, and state-backed projects.
The approach parallels elements of Dubai’s economic model, which ignited a real estate boom when it opened specific zones to international buyers in 2002. Saudi Arabia’s strategy mirrors that playbook: liberalize selectively, preserve sensitive areas, and allow major urban centers to absorb and shape global demand.
The scale, however, is dramatically larger; some economists estimate the long-term potential of Saudi Arabia’s property market at more than $15 trillion.
Still, questions remain. The full impact will hinge on the specifics of the forthcoming regulations — including ownership limits, financing rules, zoning boundaries, and taxes.
The clarity and predictability of these rules will determine whether Riyadh and Jeddah emerge as major global real estate hubs or advance more cautiously as regional centers of investment.
For international executives, asset managers, and institutional investors, the new policy is a signal to begin preparing.
The Kingdom’s real estate sector is transitioning from a protected domestic market to an international investment landscape, introducing opportunities for construction firms, financial institutions, private equity, and residential developers.
Saudi Arabia’s long-term bet is clear: foreign ownership will accelerate economic diversification, draw global talent, and bind international capital to the success of Vision 2030. As the Kingdom continues its rapid transformation, the opening of the property market is poised to become one of the most influential economic reforms of the decade.
Editor's Pick
Hacked, Broke, and Isolated — Somalia’s Federal Dream Turns to Dust
The Collapse of a Mirage: Donor Fatigue Exposes Somalia’s Fake Economy.
The illusion of Mogadishu’s “economic progress” has finally cracked. Somalia’s finance minister has admitted what diplomats have long whispered: without foreign donors, the so-called federal government cannot even fund itself.
For years, Somalia’s officials sold the world a narrative of recovery — polished PowerPoints, aid conferences in Brussels, and endless speeches about “digital transformation.” But the mask is off. The 2025 growth forecast has collapsed from 4 percent to barely 1 percent, a free fall that exposes a truth Somalilanders have known all along: the federal state survives not on governance, but on grants, gimmicks, and global sympathy.
Finance Minister Bihi Iman Egeh told CNBC Arabia that the crash comes after a steep drop in donor aid. In plain words, Somalia’s economy is an empty shell built on handouts. The country’s entire budget — from roads to salaries — depends on the goodwill of foreign governments who are now turning away.
Decades after the war, Mogadishu has not learned to stand. Every ministry depends on an NGO; every project depends on another foreign grant. When donors walk, Somalia falls.
The E-Visa Scandal: A Government That Can’t Guard Its Own Data
The collapse of the federal e-visa system, hacked and humiliated before the world, was not an accident — it was a symptom of a failed state pretending to be digital.
More than 35,000 travelers’ data were leaked, including names, photos, and addresses, while Mogadishu stayed silent for days.
Washington warned citizens directly, bypassing Somalia’s own institutions — a diplomatic slap that said it all: even the U.S. doesn’t trust the system.
And yet, this is the same federal government that tried to block Somaliland’s airspace, disrupt regional travel, and impose illegal digital systems across territories it doesn’t control. The breach turned the tables. The world now sees who is capable — and who is careless.
Donor Patience Has Run Out
Global partners have shifted priorities — Ukraine, Gaza, climate crises. Somalia is no longer the emotional project it once was.
Analysts say donors have grown tired of funding corruption disguised as reform. Billions have flowed into Mogadishu, yet poverty deepens, youth flee, and infrastructure barely exists.
As the flow of dollars dries up, Mogadishu’s officials panic, hiding behind slogans of modernization. The Finance Minister himself admitted domestic tax reforms increased revenue “from a very low base.” Translation: nothing significant.
Meanwhile in Hargeisa…
Across the Gulf of Aden, a different story unfolds. Somaliland — unrecognized but self-reliant — continues to run balanced budgets, secure borders, and deliver what Mogadishu only advertises: real governance.
Its coast guards train with Western partners. Its peace endures without a cent from foreign troops. Its institutions function without begging for debt forgiveness or donor pity.
While Mogadishu blames the world, Somaliland builds.
While Somalia collapses under fake federalism, Somaliland stands on fiscal discipline, national unity, and quiet competence — the very ingredients that donors wish Mogadishu had.
The Verdict
Somalia’s looming financial crash is not just an economic headline; it’s a moral one.
A country that refuses to govern itself cannot ask others to keep paying its bills.
And a government that spies, hacks, and fails at basic administration cannot claim to represent a region that has already moved on.
As 2025 begins, the difference is now undeniable:
Comment
The Secret Route Restoring Iran’s Global Reach
A340s, 777s and Forged Papers: Inside the Plot to Replenish Iran’s Fleet.
A fresh sanctions-evasion pathway has opened from Africa to Tehran, aviation researchers and open-source investigators warn, after Malawian front companies began re-registering wide- and narrow-body jets bound for Iran.
The transfers mirror a larger, adaptive campaign by Mahan Air — an Iranian carrier long linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — to rebuild long-haul capacity in the face of U.S. export controls.
A chronology of flights and registry entries reviewed by investigators shows Malawi-registered airframes appearing in Asia before small, clandestine movements toward Iran.
The pattern follows the July 2025 “Triple Seven” operation through Madagascar, in which five ex-Singapore Airlines Boeing 777-212ERs were routed through multiple countries using forged Malagasy registrations.
That scandal prompted arrests in Madagascar and the suspension of a civil-aviation official, but experts say Tehran’s logisticians quickly shifted tactics.
Between mid-2024 and mid-2025, Malawian shell operators acquired records for several aircraft types — including Boeing 737s, Airbus A320s and the four-engine Airbus A340-642 — that investigators say were refurbished in China and later prepared for clandestine transfer to Iran.
In at least three cases, jets sold for dismantling in 2022 were instead returned to service and painted with Malawian registration codes while stored at Taiyuan Wusu International Airport, according to satellite imagery and photographic evidence examined by open-source analysts.
The aircraft are valuable for reasons beyond passenger service. The A340-642, despite its age, uses Rolls-Royce Trent 556 engines whose spare-parts lines are more accessible to Iranian technicians than the primarily U.S.-made engines on more modern jets.
Investigators say that capability, combined with the A340’s range and cargo capacity, makes it an attractive platform for mixed passenger-freight missions that can support long-distance logistics — a capability Tehran has used for years.
Analysts say the Malawi shift exposes broader weaknesses in international aviation oversight. “Where one permissive registry is closed, another can appear,” said an aviation compliance expert who reviewed the materials.
Wealthier states and established registries have more robust end-user checks; smaller states with limited technical capacity and acute financing needs are often vulnerable to opaque transactions and political pressure, the expert added.
The U.S. response to the Madagascar affair — a coordinated probe by the FBI and sanctions on complicit actors — demonstrated that enforcement can work.
Washington and allies now face a fresh policy choice: replicate that model in Lilongwe and other jurisdictions, or watch Iran’s procurement networks adapt again.
The report urges Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the State Department and international civil aviation authorities to press Malawi for transparency, suspend suspect air operator certificates and trace beneficial ownership of the shell companies involved.
If left unchecked, investigators warn, the incremental restoration of Iran’s long-range airlift would erode the effectiveness of export controls by adding capability one aircraft at a time — a slow-moving attrition of sanctions that would be difficult to reverse.
Editor's Pick
Global Finance Targets Africa’s Power Banks — Here’s the Real Reason
Africa’s development banks are entering a make-or-break moment. Behind closed doors in Washington, Paris and major investment houses, a quiet campaign is underway — one that could determine whether the continent keeps the financial tools it needs to fund its own growth, or remains trapped in a system where others set the rules and the price of money.
At the center of this dispute is preferred creditor status — a long-standing guarantee that multilateral development banks are repaid first when countries face distress.
Global institutions like the World Bank, IMF and regional lenders in Asia and Latin America rely on this protection. Their credibility, and their ability to lend cheaply during crises, depends on it.
But in recent months, powerful actors — from IMF officials to Paris Club negotiators and analysts at JP Morgan — have begun questioning whether African development banks deserve the same treatment.
Some claim the institutions are “too small.” Others argue that because they do not always offer concessional loans, their status should be reconsidered. A JP Morgan note even warned investors that African banks could lose the privilege altogether.
This is not a technical debate. It is a battle over who controls Africa’s access to affordable capital. And if the narrative goes unchallenged, it will justify the same high interest rates that have long punished African economies.
What sets African development banks apart is that their preferred creditor status is not an informal practice — it is international law. Treaties establishing Afreximbank, the African Development Bank and the Trade and Development Bank explicitly enshrine this status.
They are registered under the UN Charter and ratified domestically by member states. Ironically, the legal footing of African institutions is stronger than that of the IMF or World Bank. Yet it is Africa’s lenders that are cast as “uncertain.”
African governments must correct this perception, loudly and collectively. Finance ministers, central bank governors and the African Union should issue coordinated public affirmations making clear: the legal protections exist, they are enforceable, and they are backed by political will.
Meanwhile, Africa’s development banks — now holding more than $640 billion in assets — must speak with a unified voice.
Their success and rapid growth have sharpened resistance from rating agencies and commercial creditors. Silence allows outsiders to shape the narrative; coordinated action reclaims it.
Ultimately, this is not about protecting institutions. It is about protecting African financial sovereignty. If global perceptions dictate African creditworthiness, the continent will continue paying a penalty that other regions do not.
Reasserting preferred creditor status is therefore not technical housekeeping — it is a declaration that Africa has the right to finance its future on fair terms.
-
Analysis10 months agoSaudi Arabia’s Billion-Dollar Bid for Eritrea’s Assab Port
-
Opinion17 years agoSomaliland Needs a Paradigm Change: Now or Never!
-
Interagency Assessment4 days agoTOP SECRET SHIFT: U.S. MILITARY ORDERED INTO SOMALILAND BY LAW
-
ASSESSMENTS9 months agoOperation Geel Exposes the Truth: International Community’s Reluctance to Embrace Somaliland as a Strategic Ally
-
Somaliland11 months agoSomaliland and UAE Elevate Ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
-
EDITORIAL1 year agoDr. Edna Adan Champions the Evolving Partnership Between Somaliland and Ethiopia
-
ASSESSMENTS6 months agoA Critique of the Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Administration and the Halane Enigma
-
Africa2 years agoHow Somaliland Could Lead the Global Camel Milk Industry
