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What’s Sudan like after 15 months of war, displacement, and inhumanity?

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As Conflict Rages On, Sudan Faces a Humanitarian Catastrophe of Unprecedented Scale

The brutal war in Sudan has stretched into its 16th month, with the nation plunging deeper into chaos and despair. As forces loyal to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue their violent struggle for control, the humanitarian fallout is staggering. Tens of thousands have been killed, and millions have been forced to flee their homes, making this the world’s most severe displacement crisis.

The conflict, which began in April 2023, has its roots in the power vacuum left by the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and a subsequent military coup in 2021. Civilian efforts to establish a stable government have been repeatedly thwarted by the warring factions, resulting in widespread instability and suffering.

Recent reports from the southeastern state of Sennar highlight the ongoing violence. The RSF’s attacks in towns such as Sinja and al-Dinder have triggered a mass exodus, with over 136,000 people fleeing since late June, according to the United Nations. Many have sought refuge in neighboring al-Gedaref and Blue Nile states, adding to the 286,000 already displaced in those areas before the latest clashes.

The situation in North Darfur is equally dire. El-Fasher, the last capital held by the Sudanese army in the Darfur region, remains a battleground. A recent attack on a market there resulted in 15 civilian deaths and 29 injuries, underscoring the relentless violence that continues to plague the region.

The scale of displacement in Sudan is unprecedented. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that approximately 10 million people have been forcibly displaced since the conflict began. Of these, 7.7 million are internally displaced, while over two million have fled to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, and Ethiopia. The UNHCR is now expanding its refugee response plan to include Libya and Uganda, expecting to accommodate 149,000 and 55,000 refugees, respectively.

Ewan Watson, head of global communications at UNHCR, highlighted the desperate conditions driving people to flee to such perilous destinations. “It just speaks to the desperate situation and desperate decisions that people are making, that they end up in a place like Libya which is of course extremely, extremely difficult for refugees right now,” he said.

Despite the immense need, international aid agencies are struggling to provide adequate support. The UNHCR has received only 19 percent of the funds required for its refugee response, leading to severe cuts in food rations. The UN hunger monitoring system, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), warns that Sudan is facing the worst food crisis in its history. Approximately 755,000 people are experiencing “catastrophe” levels of hunger, with 8.5 million more at risk of severe malnutrition and death.

The IPC has issued a stark warning about the risk of famine in 14 areas, particularly in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Al Jazirah states. If the conflict escalates further, humanitarian access will become even more restricted, and people’s ability to farm and engage in casual labor during the upcoming agricultural season will be severely hindered.

Diplomatic efforts to end the war have repeatedly failed. Recent reconciliation talks in Cairo between the Democratic Bloc, aligned with the army, and Taqaddum, accused of sympathizing with the RSF, yielded no progress as the factions refused to hold joint sessions. Neither of the primary belligerents attended the talks.

Previous attempts to broker peace, including those facilitated by Saudi and US officials in Jeddah and a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire during Ramadan, have collapsed under the weight of ongoing violence and mutual distrust. The RSF’s lack of response to SAF head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s demands for withdrawal from occupied provinces only exacerbates the deadlock.

As Sudan continues to spiral into deeper conflict, the international community faces a daunting challenge: how to effectively intervene and provide relief to a nation on the brink of total collapse. The human cost of this war is already staggering, and without immediate and sustained efforts to broker peace and deliver humanitarian aid, the crisis will only worsen.

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US Puts Curbs on Firms For Supporting Iran, Pakistan Weapons Programs

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The United States has imposed new trade restrictions on more than two dozen companies and entities, citing their involvement in supporting weapons and drone programs in Iran and Pakistan, as well as violations of export controls related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The move, announced on Monday by the U.S. Commerce Department, adds 26 entities—primarily based in Pakistan, China, and the United Arab Emirates—to a trade blacklist, significantly curbing their access to U.S. technologies and products without government authorization.

Among the most prominent targets were nine entities in Pakistan, which were accused of acting as front companies and procurement agents for the already-sanctioned Advanced Engineering Research Organization (AERO). The group has been procuring U.S.-origin technologies while concealing their true end-users, including those linked to Pakistan’s cruise missile and drone programs. According to the Commerce Department, this activity poses a direct threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.

In China, six entities were blacklisted for acquiring U.S.-origin items to further the country’s military modernization and for their involvement in Iran’s weapons and drone programs. Meanwhile, three entities in the UAE, alongside one in Egypt, were sanctioned for attempting to obtain U.S. components in violation of export restrictions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Alan Estevez, the undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, underscored the U.S. government’s vigilance in protecting national security from what he called “bad actors.” He stated, “Our actions today send a message to malicious actors that if they violate our controls, they will pay a price.”

The imposition of these sanctions reflects a broader effort by the U.S. to counter the illicit procurement networks that support military advancements in countries like Iran and Pakistan, while also addressing efforts to circumvent export controls tied to Russia’s war effort.

Interestingly, the Commerce Department also announced the removal of a Canada-based company, Sandvine, from its blacklist. Sandvine had been placed on the list in February 2024 for allegedly aiding the Egyptian government in targeting human rights activists and dissidents. The company reportedly took steps to correct the misuse of its technology, leading to its removal from the trade restriction list. The department acknowledged Sandvine’s cooperation, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that technologies do not facilitate human rights abuses.

This latest round of sanctions highlights the ongoing complexity of global trade enforcement as the U.S. continues to navigate multifaceted security challenges involving Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia, while also responding to concerns about the misuse of commercial technologies to undermine human rights.

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Overcrowding Reported at China Detention Centers Amid Economic Downturn

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Overcrowding at detention centers across China has become a growing concern, with reports surfacing on Chinese social media of packed cells and deteriorating living conditions. This surge is largely attributed to the nation’s increasing economic struggles, which analysts say are fueling both petty and serious crime. As China faces an economic downturn marked by unemployment, a deepening property crisis, and rising costs of living, law enforcement has intensified its crackdown, leading to a significant increase in arrests and detentions.

A video posted on the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu by Beijing-based lawyer Zhao Haidong detailed the overcrowding at Beijing’s Fengtai Detention Center, where some rooms are now holding 20 to 40 detainees, far more than in previous years. Similar conditions have been reported in other parts of the country, including Sichuan, where detainees were reportedly forced to sleep sideways to accommodate more people in limited space.

China’s Supreme People’s Procuratorate released statistics showing that 367,000 people were approved for arrest in the first half of 2024, an 18.5% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, over 761,000 people have been prosecuted, marking a nearly 7% increase. The rising numbers reflect the country’s heightened enforcement against a broader range of offenses, from financial crimes and trade disputes to violations involving fishing and gathering protected wild herbs.

The country’s legal community has been vocal on social media, suggesting that worsening economic conditions are driving the spike in arrests. Shandong-based lawyer Shen Yanan pointed out that actions previously tolerated by authorities are now being criminalized, citing gambling, pornography, and illegal trade as examples. Financial crimes, in particular, have been linked to the mounting pressures of mortgages, loans, and unemployment.

Lin Zhanhui, an assistant professor at Feng Chia University in Taiwan, attributes the overcrowding to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) expanding definition of national security. He notes that China has increasingly used legal mechanisms not only to clamp down on economic crimes but also to maintain stability amid rising social unrest. Protests, political issues, and mass mobilizations are all being controlled through national security laws, contributing to the influx of detainees.

The broader impact of China’s slowing economy is also believed to play a role in the detention surge. Taiwanese democracy activist Lee Ming-che, who has firsthand experience in Chinese prisons, suggested that local government corruption could be a factor. He argued that, as the economy stagnates, local governments might be incentivized to detain more people in order to raise revenue through fines and other fees. Inmates in China can pay for meal upgrades and daily necessities, making the detention centers a potential source of income for strapped local authorities.

There are also concerns that some citizens, facing severe financial hardship, may even see detention as a temporary solution for basic survival. Rising costs and unemployment may drive individuals to seek out “free meals” and shelter provided in detention centers as an unintended consequence of their difficult circumstances.

Despite these grim reports, lawyers and legal influencers on Chinese social media are urging citizens to be more cautious. Legal advisor Shi Chuang, echoing the sentiments of many within the legal community, urged individuals to carefully consider their actions to avoid being caught up in the legal crackdown, emphasizing, “Before you do anything [illegal], be sure to think twice, think twice, and then think twice again.”

The escalating overcrowding in detention centers underscores the broader social and economic challenges facing China. As the country grapples with growing economic pressure, crime rates are rising, and the strain on its detention infrastructure is becoming increasingly visible. With no immediate solution in sight, the Chinese government may be forced to further expand its detention facilities to accommodate the rising number of detainees—a response that will likely continue to spark debate both domestically and internationally.

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Somaliland Inaugurates Somaliland’s First Training Aircraft

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In a significant step towards enhancing Somaliland’s aviation sector, President Muse Bihi Abdi inaugurated the country’s first training aircraft under the banner of Somaliland Airline. These aircraft, part of a collaboration with Serbian experts, mark a pivotal moment in the nation’s drive to develop its own aviation industry and train local pilots.

During the ceremony, held at the Somaliland Civil Aviation and Airport Authority, President Bihi personally piloted one of the newly unveiled aircraft, symbolizing his commitment to the country’s aviation progress. He also laid the foundation stones for two key projects: a new Aviation Institute, which will focus on aviation sciences and pilot training, and a new terminal at Egal International Airport. The modernized VIP lounge, upgraded for enhanced service to visiting dignitaries, was also officially opened.

The event drew senior officials from Somaliland’s aviation and airport authorities, government ministers, and the Serbian aviation experts who helped oversee the development of these training aircraft. In their speeches, officials highlighted the significance of the projects for national development, particularly the role they play in fulfilling President Bihi’s vision of creating a self-sufficient aviation industry in Somaliland.

In his address, President Bihi commended the aviation authority’s leadership for their dedication in realizing this ambitious initiative. He also emphasized the importance of these advancements in equipping Somaliland with its own fleet and building a skilled workforce. The Aviation Institute, in particular, is expected to serve as a crucial hub for the country’s future pilots and aviation professionals.

In recognition of the contributions made by those involved in the project, the president awarded certificates of honor to young Somalilanders who have studied aviation abroad, as well as to the foreign experts responsible for managing the aircraft and training future pilots. This collaboration not only underscores Somaliland’s aspirations to build its own aviation infrastructure but also highlights the growing international partnerships driving this vision forward.

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US Probes Unauthorized Release of Classified Documents on Israel Attack Plans

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The U.S. is currently investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents related to Israel’s plans for a potential military response to Iran, following an October 1 missile attack. According to several U.S. officials, the documents, believed to be legitimate, originated from the U.S. Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. They were intended to be shared within the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, which includes the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

The classified material, posted on Telegram and first reported by CNN and Axios, reportedly assesses Israel’s military preparations for an imminent strike. The U.S. investigation is focusing on how these documents were leaked, examining whether it was a deliberate act by an insider or the result of a cyberattack. Officials are also working to determine whether any further intelligence was compromised.

This breach comes at a critical moment, as the U.S. has been pressuring Israel to use the momentum gained from the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza, rather than escalating further military action in Lebanon against Hezbollah. However, Israel has made clear its intention to retaliate against Iran for its missile attack, increasing fears of a wider regional conflict.

The Pentagon has acknowledged the reports of the leaked documents but has yet to issue a comprehensive statement. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, with significant casualties on both sides. Over 1,200 Israelis were killed in the initial Hamas attack, and Israel’s counteroffensive in Gaza has resulted in the deaths of more than 42,400 Palestinians, including thousands of Hamas fighters, according to Israeli military estimates.

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Taiwan and Somaliland’s Partnership Highlights a Democratic Alternative to China’s BRI

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The partnership between Taiwan and Somaliland is emblematic of two territories navigating the complex landscape of international diplomacy, each seeking recognition and stability in a world dominated by larger powers. As both Taiwan and Somaliland remain unrecognized or only partially recognized on the global stage, their cooperation highlights a significant geopolitical counterbalance, especially as it provides an alternative to China’s growing influence in Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In an interview with Global Voices, Taiwan’s representative to Somaliland, Ambassador Allen Lou, shed light on the strategic and symbolic importance of this relationship.

Taiwan and Somaliland’s partnership, formalized in 2020 with the opening of mutual representative offices, underscores their shared struggle for international recognition. Taiwan, claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) under the One China policy since 1949, has fought to maintain its sovereignty despite global pressure. Similarly, Somaliland, which declared back its 1960 independence in 1991, remains unrecognized as a sovereign state, despite its functioning government and stability. Ambassador Lou highlighted that this shared experience of isolation has fostered a unique bond between the two territories.

For Taiwan, this alliance is a critical element of its broader strategy to counterbalance China’s growing economic and political presence in Africa. Through the BRI, China has established itself as a dominant player, offering large-scale infrastructure projects and loans to African nations, often resulting in financial dependence. Lou contrasted this approach with Taiwan’s model, which focuses on building sustainable partnerships through projects that prioritize governance, development, and self-reliance.

“China’s BRI is not just about infrastructure; it’s about creating dependency, both economic and political,” Lou stated. “Taiwan’s initiatives in Somaliland serve as a counterweight to China’s growing dominance. Somaliland is a beacon of democracy in East Africa, much like Taiwan is in Asia. Our presence here is not only about development cooperation; it’s about safeguarding democracy in a region where China is trying to expand its autocratic model.”

Taiwan’s cooperation with Somaliland extends beyond traditional aid. Lou emphasized that their partnership is rooted in shared values and long-term collaboration, rather than financial dependency. Taiwan’s focus on healthcare, agriculture, education, and technology projects reflects its commitment to building local capacities rather than imposing unsustainable infrastructure projects. This approach mirrors Taiwan’s larger foreign policy objectives, which aim to empower partners rather than create indebtedness.

One significant aspect of Taiwan’s presence in Somaliland is its explicit use of “Taiwan” in diplomatic titles, a rare move that underscores Taiwan’s growing assertion of its sovereignty. As Lou noted, in other African countries like Eswatini, Taiwan maintains a more cautious diplomatic presence. But in Somaliland, the explicit recognition of “Taiwan” marks a departure from the cautious approach taken elsewhere, reflecting both the growing strength of the relationship and Taiwan’s bold stance against China’s pressure.

Beyond diplomatic symbolism, Taiwan’s presence is backed by concrete initiatives aimed at improving local infrastructure and governance. Taiwan has launched projects that provide healthcare, agricultural training, and vocational education. Scholarships for Somaliland students to study in Taiwan further strengthen the bond, while military cooperation, such as training Somaliland’s military personnel in Taiwan, underscores the growing strategic importance of the relationship. This contrasts sharply with China’s ventures in Africa, which Lou described as often leaving countries mired in financial instability.

A critical point of discussion for Taiwan on the international stage is UN Resolution 2758, which in 1971 recognized the PRC as “the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations.” Lou offered a nuanced interpretation of the resolution, noting that while it removed the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek’s government, it did not explicitly address Taiwan’s status. The resolution has since been wielded by Beijing as a diplomatic tool to isolate Taiwan from international organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization. According to Lou, this manipulation has allowed China to further marginalize Taiwan diplomatically, while many nations, including the US and Canada, have not formally recognized Taiwan as part of the PRC despite acknowledging the resolution.

This shared struggle for recognition extends to Somaliland. Although it declared back its 1960 independence in 1991, it remains unrecognized by any major country, though it maintains relations with entities like Taiwan. Somaliland’s strategy for recognition hinges on demonstrating its stability, democratic governance, and economic potential. Recent developments, such as the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Ethiopia, aim to boost trade and cooperation, while talks around military bases, including the possibility of a Taiwan or US naval base in Berbera, indicate Somaliland’s growing geopolitical significance.

In many ways, the Taiwan-Somaliland partnership reflects broader shifts in global power dynamics, particularly as smaller, unrecognized territories seek to carve out their own identities amidst pressure from larger powers like China. For Somaliland, its ties with Taiwan offer a chance to bolster its quest for recognition while strengthening its democratic institutions. For Taiwan, Somaliland represents an opportunity to counter China’s influence in Africa and assert its place on the global stage as a sovereign entity. Together, they present a democratic alternative to the BRI, one grounded in mutual respect and shared values.

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Japan’s Ruling Party Headquarters is Attacked With Firebombs, Media Report

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On Saturday, a shocking attack occurred in Tokyo when a man threw multiple firebombs into the headquarters of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) before crashing his car into the fencing surrounding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s residence. Police identified the suspect as 49-year-old Atsunobu Usuda, who was immediately arrested at the scene. Fortunately, no injuries were reported in the aftermath of the incident.

Usuda was charged with obstructing official duties, though authorities indicated additional charges could follow. While the exact motive behind the attack is still unclear, Japanese media reports have shed light on possible motivations. Social media posts, believed to be Usuda’s, reportedly expressed frustration over the substantial financial requirements needed to run for political office in Japan, hinting at political ambitions that may have played a role in the attack. Additionally, Usuda has been linked to protests against nuclear plants, further complicating the potential reasoning behind the incident. Usuda has not yet made any public statements regarding the attack.

The LDP, already facing growing public dissatisfaction due to an expanding financial scandal, has declined to comment directly on the attack, deferring all inquiries to the police. The scandal, which involves dubious funding and suspected tax evasion, has severely impacted the party’s reputation ahead of the upcoming election for Japan’s lower house of Parliament, set for October 27. Several politicians embroiled in the scandal have lost official LDP backing but are continuing their campaigns as independent candidates.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, recently appointed as the new leader of the LDP in a bid to restore its image, has struggled to turn the tide of negative public opinion. Despite the party’s dominant role in Japan’s political landscape for decades, polls suggest a significant drop in its popularity. However, with opposition forces fragmented, it remains uncertain whether the LDP will lose its majority grip on the lower house in the upcoming election.

The firebombing incident comes at a politically volatile moment for Japan, where political heckling, though rare, has increased in recent months—a sign of mounting frustrations. The memory of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assassination during a campaign speech in 2022 lingers heavily in the national consciousness. Abe was killed by a gunman with a homemade firearm, and his killer later revealed he targeted Abe due to his perceived ties to the Unification Church, a controversial group that had reportedly caused his family financial ruin. Connections between the LDP and the Unification Church remain an ongoing issue, casting a shadow over the party’s image.

As the October 27 election approaches, incidents like Saturday’s attack may further stoke political tensions and shape the national dialogue around leadership and governance in Japan. The question of whether the LDP can maintain its long-standing political dominance in the face of growing public scrutiny will soon be answered at the ballot box.

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At BRICS Summit, Russia to Push to End Dollar Dominance

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As Russia prepares to host the upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan from October 22-24, it is positioning the gathering as a key moment in its efforts to diminish the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. President Vladimir Putin, who has been a driving force behind BRICS’ recent expansion, sees the bloc as a counterbalance to Western influence in global politics and trade. With the addition of new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—BRICS now spans some of the world’s most influential emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Moscow’s primary objective for the summit is to convince BRICS countries to adopt an alternative platform for international payments that would be shielded from Western sanctions. A document prepared by Russia’s finance ministry and central bank, circulated ahead of the summit, outlines the proposal for a new payments system that would rely on blockchain technology to store and transfer digital tokens backed by national currencies. This system, Russia argues, would allow BRICS nations to settle trade payments without the need for U.S. dollar transactions, thereby circumventing Western financial controls.

The drive to build a new payments infrastructure is partly a response to Russia’s growing difficulties in conducting international transactions, even with close allies like China. Russian businesses have faced challenges in settling payments as banks in partner countries fear repercussions from secondary U.S. sanctions. The proposed BRICS payments system, Moscow hopes, would ease these concerns by creating a secure, decentralized network for currency exchange.

However, turning this vision into reality will not be straightforward. Yaroslav Lissovolik, the founder of the BRICS+ Analytics think tank, noted that while such a system is technically feasible, achieving consensus among the now-expanded BRICS membership will be more challenging. BRICS has grown significantly in recent years, and the differing economic priorities of its members could make agreement on a unified payments platform more complex.

Despite these obstacles, Russia is pushing forward with a broader agenda aimed at reshaping the global financial architecture. The Russian government has been critical of institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which it accuses of serving Western interests. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently urged BRICS countries to create an alternative to the IMF, reflecting Moscow’s desire to diminish the influence of Western-led financial organizations. Among other initiatives, Russia is also proposing the creation of a “BRICS Clear” platform to settle securities transactions, as well as a BRICS grain trading exchange backed by a pricing agency, intended as an alternative to Western commodity markets.

However, there are signs that Moscow’s ambitions may face resistance from within the BRICS bloc. Last week’s preparatory meeting for the summit was attended by lower-level officials rather than finance ministers or central bankers from most BRICS members, indicating that consensus on Russia’s proposals may not yet have been reached. The reluctance of some members to fully commit to Russia’s vision suggests that while BRICS provides a platform for cooperative efforts, the diverse interests of its members could limit Moscow’s ability to push through its more ambitious reforms.

Still, the upcoming summit in Kazan is being framed by Russia as proof that Western attempts to isolate it on the global stage have failed. Kremlin officials have emphasized the growing influence of BRICS, and the expected attendance of leaders from all nine members, as well as Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and representatives from 15 other countries interested in partnering with the bloc, underscores the geopolitical significance of the meeting.

“BRICS is a structure that cannot be ignored,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters last week, signaling Russia’s determination to position the group as a major force in global governance.

Moscow’s agenda for the summit clearly reflects its broader strategy of forging stronger alliances with non-Western countries while seeking to reduce its dependency on Western-controlled financial systems. For Russia, the summit is not only about economic cooperation but also about cementing BRICS as a powerful geopolitical bloc that can stand up to the West.

At the heart of these efforts is the broader goal of creating a multipolar world where U.S. economic and political dominance is challenged. Whether Russia can convince the other BRICS members to fully embrace its vision of an alternative financial system remains to be seen, but the summit in Kazan will provide an important test of the bloc’s unity and its ability to influence the future of global trade and finance.

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Why Did Sisi Remove His Long-Time Aide, Spy Chief Abbas Kamel?

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The sudden removal of Egypt’s intelligence chief, Maj.-Gen. Abbas Kamel, has sparked intense speculation over the motivations behind President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s decision. While the official reason provided was Kamel’s deteriorating health, many analysts and insiders question whether health alone is the true cause, given the central role Kamel has played in Egyptian politics and security.

Kamel, a long-time confidante of Sisi, was rotated out of his position as Director of the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) and assigned to a new role as special envoy and security advisor to the president. This shift has left many observers wondering whether it represents a promotion, a demotion, or a strategic sidelining.

Abbas Kamel’s Influence

Kamel’s importance to Sisi’s regime cannot be understated. As a key architect of Egypt’s intelligence and foreign policy apparatus, he has been a significant figure in both domestic and international affairs. Kamel worked closely with intelligence agencies from multiple nations, including the CIA and Israel’s Mossad, and played a crucial role in brokering the 2021 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. His reach extended beyond traditional intelligence activities, influencing Egypt’s diplomatic relations, particularly with key regional actors like Qatar.

Kamel’s influence wasn’t limited to the international arena; he also wielded significant control within Egypt, especially over state media and parliamentary affairs. He was seen as an enforcer of Sisi’s domestic policies, ensuring that opposition movements were neutralized, and shaping public narratives to support the government.

However, this pervasive influence may have been Kamel’s undoing. Some reports suggest that Sisi became wary of Kamel’s growing power within the state apparatus, fearing that his trusted lieutenant had amassed too much influence. In this view, his removal from the head of GID may be a tactical move to reduce his autonomy while maintaining him close in an advisory role. This would allow Sisi to keep a close eye on Kamel, while stripping him of the direct control he once held.

Diplomatic Ramifications and Timing

Adding to the intrigue is the timing of Kamel’s removal, which coincided with important developments on both the regional and international fronts. Less than a day after Maj.-Gen. Hassan Mahmoud Rashad was appointed as Kamel’s successor, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made a rare visit to Cairo—the first in nearly a decade. This visit, along with Kamel’s departure, has led to speculation about a possible shift in Egypt’s foreign policy, particularly in its stance toward Iran. Egypt’s relationship with Iran has been fraught with tension, and Kamel had been a key figure in managing that delicate balance. His replacement with Rashad, who has overseen Egypt’s intelligence dealings with Iran, could signal a recalibration of Egypt’s regional strategy.

Moreover, Kamel’s recent undeclared meeting with Israel’s Shin Bet Director, Ronen Bar, further complicates the narrative. Israel, along with the United States, is said to be dismayed by Kamel’s ouster, raising concerns about how this change could impact ongoing hostage negotiations and broader Egyptian-Israeli relations. Kamel’s experience and relationships with Israeli security services had made him a crucial partner in mediating between Israel and Hamas, particularly over delicate issues like prisoner exchanges and ceasefires. His removal introduces uncertainty into these critical negotiations.

The Role of Hassan Rashad

Kamel’s replacement, Maj.-Gen. Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, is a relatively unknown figure in the public sphere. With over three decades of experience in the intelligence services, Rashad is described as a veteran intelligence officer, though little is known about his views or approach to Egypt’s pressing security issues. What is clear is that he has worked closely with Kamel on numerous missions, including Egypt’s covert dealings with Iran.

Rashad’s appointment may be an attempt by Sisi to introduce new leadership into the intelligence services while maintaining continuity in key areas. His deep experience within the intelligence apparatus suggests that Sisi is not seeking a radical departure from Kamel’s policies but rather a rebalancing of power at the top of Egypt’s security establishment.

Speculation and Strategic Considerations

There are several theories circulating about the real reason behind Kamel’s removal. One view is that Sisi’s decision reflects frustration with the lack of progress in hostage negotiations and other key diplomatic efforts involving Israel and Hamas. Kamel’s role in these talks, which have dragged on without a breakthrough, may have contributed to Sisi’s decision to bring in new leadership to reinvigorate Egypt’s negotiating position.

Another possibility is that Kamel’s involvement in the corruption case of U.S. Senator Robert Menendez, who was accused of steering aid toward Egypt in exchange for bribes, may have made him a liability for the Sisi regime. Although Kamel has not been formally charged, his proximity to the scandal could have prompted Sisi to distance him from direct power.

Finally, some analysts suggest that Sisi’s move is simply a classic example of internal power dynamics in authoritarian regimes. Leaders often feel threatened by the rising influence of close allies and move to neutralize potential rivals. By transitioning Kamel to an honorary advisory post, Sisi may be signaling that while Kamel’s service is appreciated, his time as a power broker has come to an end.

The removal of Abbas Kamel from his post as Egypt’s intelligence chief has raised more questions than answers. Whether it was due to health reasons, internal power struggles, or a strategic realignment of Egypt’s foreign and security policies, the change marks a significant moment in President Sisi’s administration. With Maj.-Gen. Hassan Rashad stepping into the role, Egypt’s intelligence services are likely to continue their key role in regional diplomacy and security, though with a potentially new approach under fresh leadership. How this shift will affect Egypt’s relationships with critical international partners, particularly Israel and the United States, remains to be seen.

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