ASSESSMENTS
Terror and Diplomacy: Navigating Somalia’s Security Maze

From Al-Shabaab’s Rampage to UAE-Somalia Diplomatic Strides: Unpacking the Complexities
Somalia remains a focal point of both conflict and strategic diplomatic engagements, as illustrated by recent events that encapsulate the nation’s security challenges and the international efforts to stabilize the region. This in-depth analysis delves into the complexities of Al-Shabaab’s terror activities, the diplomatic endeavors by the UAE, and the international response to emerging terror alliances.
The recent attack by Al-Shabaab on the Cairo hotel in Beledweyne underscores the group’s ongoing threat within Somalia. Targeting a gathering of military officers and traditional elders, the attack reflects Al-Shabaab’s tactical focus on undermining Somalia’s stabilization efforts. This incident is part of a broader pattern where the group exploits the country’s instability to extend its influence, mimicking tactics famously used by other extremist organizations like the Taliban.
Somali President’s UAE Dash Stirs Controversy Amidst International Aid Cuts
Amidst the backdrop of terror, a significant development in international diplomacy emerged as UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan hosted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This high-level meeting, aimed at bolstering bilateral relations, highlights the UAE’s commitment to supporting Somalia’s path to stability and development. The discussions likely covered cooperation in security measures, economic development, and infrastructural support, vital for Somalia’s recovery and growth.
Alarm Bells Ring Over Al-Shabaab’s Territorial Ambitions in Somalia
The complexity of Al-Shabaab’s threat extends beyond Somalia’s borders. The group’s connections with Yemen’s Houthi rebels represent a dangerous escalation that poses a regional and global security threat. This alliance facilitates the exchange of tactical knowledge and resources, enhancing their capabilities to disrupt peace significantly. The U.S. has responded with a call for international collaboration to sever these ties, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive strategy involving sanctions, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism operations. This approach is critical in disrupting the operational capabilities of these groups and their international networks.
The situation in Somalia presents a dual challenge of combating entrenched terrorist networks and forging robust international partnerships to ensure long-term stability. The strategic cooperation with the UAE symbolizes a positive shift towards enhancing Somalia’s defensive and developmental capacities. Meanwhile, the global community must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the transnational threats posed by groups like Al-Shabaab, ensuring that Somalia can navigate its way towards peace and sovereignty without faltering.
As Somalia confronts these daunting challenges, the support and engagement from international partners will be crucial in tipping the scales towards peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
ASSESSMENTS
Tehran in Flames: Israel’s Shadow War Reaches Iran’s President

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian suffers minor injuries in Israeli strike targeting Tehran’s top leadership. As Israel’s precision hits deepen, Iran vows revenge in a conflict spiraling toward all-out war.
In a stunning escalation of covert war gone overt, Israel has shattered the illusion of invulnerability inside Tehran. A missile strike aimed at decapitating Iran’s leadership nearly succeeded — and President Masoud Pezeshkian, wounded but alive, is now the living symbol of Israel’s daring reach and Iran’s exposed underbelly.
The June 15 airstrike wasn’t just symbolic — it was surgical. Six missiles slammed into the fortified chambers of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, where the heads of Iran’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches had gathered. Israel wasn’t aiming at facilities. It was aiming at the regime itself.
Iranian state media quickly confirmed the president’s injury and hinted at internal betrayal. The Fars News Agency revealed chilling details: entrances and exits were hit to block escape routes, power was cut, and suffocation seemed imminent. Only a secret emergency hatch saved the Islamic Republic’s leadership. It was close. Too close.
For Israel, this was no bluff. It followed a 12-day campaign that took out top generals and nuclear scientists. The strike landed just two days before Iran and the U.S. were to resume nuclear talks — timing that made the message clear: negotiations won’t shield Tehran from Israel’s wrath. Tel Aviv is playing for keeps.
Iran’s leadership is now under siege from both air and paranoia. The accuracy of Israel’s intelligence has prompted an internal mole hunt. Were spies inside the presidential palace? Is the regime crumbling from within?
President Pezeshkian broke silence in a bold interview: “They did try… but they failed.” Yet survival is not victory. Over 1,000 Iranians are dead from Israel’s campaign. The streets of Tehran burn with grief — and with a thirst for revenge.
This isn’t tit-for-tat anymore. This is targeted decapitation, with both nations hurling missiles and drones while Washington watches nervously from the sidelines.
The next strike could be nuclear — or political. Either way, this war is no longer simmering. It’s boiling over.
ASSESSMENTS
Ex-FBI Director and ex-CIA Director are Under Investigation by Trump Justice Department

The Trump Justice Department has opened investigations into former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan, examining possible false statements made to Congress concerning the intelligence community’s 2016 assessment of Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe initiated the referral after releasing a review that sharply criticized the 2016 intelligence assessment. While Ratcliffe’s review does not dispute the central finding—that Russian President Vladimir Putin favored Trump over Hillary Clinton—it alleges that the process overseen by Brennan was flawed, describing it as “atypical and corrupt.” Brennan is specifically accused of “stifling analytic debate” by prematurely signaling consensus among intelligence agency heads.
Neither Comey nor Brennan have been formally approached by investigators yet. Brennan publicly denied knowledge of the specifics of the investigation and expressed confusion about its nature. Comey has previously faced scrutiny, including being questioned by the Secret Service regarding a political post on social media interpreted as hostile to Trump.
The investigation is primarily focused on statements Comey and Brennan provided to Congress regarding the FBI’s 2016 investigation into Russian interference and the handling of allegations detailed in the Steele dossier. The dossier, funded by the Clinton campaign, asserted coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian officials. Brennan has consistently maintained he was against incorporating information from the dossier into official briefings to President Obama.
The FBI’s broader Russia investigation was subject to extensive scrutiny by Special Counsel John Durham, appointed by former Attorney General Bill Barr. Durham’s investigation concluded without identifying any wrongdoing in the broader handling of intelligence, though it led to the indictment of three individuals, including a former FBI lawyer for falsifying surveillance warrant information.
Trump, while asserting ignorance about the current investigation into Comey and Brennan, repeated his longstanding characterization of them as dishonest.
The unfolding investigation raises significant political implications, reflecting Trump’s persistent focus on his critics and deepening concerns about potential politicization within the Justice Department. If the investigation proceeds beyond preliminary stages, it could become another flashpoint in an already polarized political landscape.
Analysis
Countering the Threat: Hostile Information Campaigns Against Somaliland

Somaliland stands at a critical juncture, achieving remarkable diplomatic strides on the global stage under the leadership of President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro. However, this promising progress is increasingly threatened by orchestrated propaganda, misinformation, and fake news campaigns aimed at destabilizing the government, undermining diplomatic achievements, and inciting internal conflicts.
Hostile information campaigns have proven highly effective tools for adversaries, both state and non-state actors, seeking to erode public trust, ignite social tensions, and disrupt democratic processes. By spreading false narratives and inflammatory content, these adversaries intend to manipulate public perceptions, diminish government legitimacy, and create societal divisions that could lead to violence.
A particularly troubling aspect of these campaigns is the role played by diaspora influencers. Some members of the Somaliland diaspora, residing in Europe and North America, exploit their safe distance from direct repercussions to stoke conflicts within Somaliland.
By providing financial support and disseminating radical messages, these influencers exacerbate tensions, often with greater radicalization and disregard for consequences than those residing within the region.
Germany’s recent investigation into Somali influencers involved in inciting violence during the Las Anod conflict of 2023 underscores the gravity of this threat. The case of one influencer, who openly claims participation in clan militias and piracy yet managed to reside in Germany despite his denied asylum claim, highlights significant loopholes in immigration and asylum systems.
Such individuals not only perpetuate violence in their homeland but also pose security risks to their host countries by importing and perpetuating divisive conflicts.
Against this backdrop, Somaliland’s adversaries have intensified their disinformation campaigns, strategically targeting President Irro’s recent diplomatic successes with nations such as Djibouti, Kenya, the UAE, and Qatar. These campaigns are aimed at diminishing the government’s international standing and sowing panic among the population.
Reliable sources indicate these efforts are systematically coordinated by anti-Somaliland factions intent on disrupting the nation’s peaceful and progressive trajectory.
In response to this growing menace, the Somaliland government must proactively engage in diplomatic channels, officially informing host countries of these harmful activities perpetrated by diaspora influencers. Diplomatic outreach could involve providing concrete evidence of incitement and collaboration in destabilizing activities, urging host countries to uphold accountability and prevent misuse of asylum privileges.
Furthermore, the Ministry of Information in Somaliland must spearhead a comprehensive strategy to counteract misinformation by promoting media literacy. Integrating media and information literacy into the national curriculum is imperative. Schools should equip students with critical thinking skills enabling them to discern and challenge disinformation. Well-trained educators must be empowered to guide students through analyzing and evaluating the credibility of various media sources.
Robust public communication strategies, transparent dissemination of accurate information, and rapid responses to fake news can bolster the public’s resilience against disinformation. The government should actively utilize both traditional media and digital platforms to quickly counter misinformation and reinforce public confidence.
Ultimately, Somaliland’s long-term stability and diplomatic success will rely on effectively addressing these hostile information campaigns. A proactive, multifaceted approach that combines diplomatic engagement, media literacy education, and effective strategic communication can shield Somaliland from the damaging effects of propaganda and fake news, ensuring the nation’s continued growth and international recognition.
Somaliland’s Information War Is a Threat to National Security
Somaliland’s Ministry of Information: A Crisis of Competence Threatening National Security
Combat the Infodemic: Strategies to Prevent the Spread of Misinformation
ASSESSMENTS
Somalia’s Secret Plot to Annex Sanaag Sparks Crisis as Puntland Targets Former Speaker

Puntland moves against Abdirashid Yusuf Jibril amid separatist push in Sanaag, accusing Mogadishu of fueling conflict to break Somaliland’s territorial integrity.
Secret WARYATV sources reveal Somalia’s covert support for Sanaag separatists, triggering Puntland’s move to revoke immunity from ex-Speaker Jibril, risking major conflict over Somaliland’s resource-rich eastern region.
Sanaag in Turmoil: Puntland and Mogadishu’s Secret Tug-of-War Threatens Somaliland’s Territorial Unity
A secretive power struggle is unfolding over the strategically crucial Sanaag region, pushing Somaliland and Puntland toward a potentially explosive conflict. Puntland’s parliament is set to revoke immunity from its former Speaker, Abdirashid Yusuf Jibril, accusing him of sedition for spearheading efforts to detach Sanaag and merge it with the newly formed SSC-Khaatumo administration.
Jibril’s bold appearance in military attire at a meeting with clan elders in Ceelbuh underscores the seriousness of Sanaag’s separatist ambitions. Despite Puntland’s heavy security crackdown, separatists defiantly claim a constitutional right to self-determination, exposing deep grievances rooted in historical neglect and political marginalization.
Secret sources have revealed exclusively to WARYATV that Somalia’s federal government is clandestinely fueling this separatist momentum, aiming to annex Sanaag from Somaliland—a charge Mogadishu vehemently denies. Yet, Puntland sees Villa Somalia’s hidden hand clearly, believing federal backing emboldens separatists seeking to redraw territorial lines at Puntland’s expense.
Losing Sanaag would dramatically weaken Somaliland’s strategic and economic standing, stripping it of vital access to Red Sea routes and lucrative mineral deposits. Somaliland, already battling with SSC-Khaatumo administration, faces existential threats as Sanaag’s allegiance shifts.
This crisis underscores the explosive intersection of local grievances, regional rivalry, and federal interference. With Puntland deploying troops and separatists digging in their heels, the stage is set for a conflict that could redefine power dynamics across eastern Somaliland—unless urgent diplomacy prevails.
ASSESSMENTS
Somalia Walks Tightrope as Egypt Readies Attack on Ethiopia’s Nile Dam

With Egypt finalizing plans to strike Ethiopia’s GERD dam, Somalia tries to balance neutrality against growing regional pressure from both Cairo and Addis Ababa.
Somalia faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act, enhancing ties with Egypt while avoiding angering Ethiopia amid Cairo’s imminent plans to militarily target Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Somalia at the Crossroads: Balancing Egypt’s Military Ambitions and Ethiopian Pressure over the Nile.
As Egypt reportedly finalizes preparations to militarily target Ethiopia’s controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Somalia is precariously walking a diplomatic tightrope. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi signals deepening ties with Cairo, including military cooperation and plans to enhance Red Sea security—yet it risks alienating Ethiopia, Somalia’s powerful neighbor and key regional player.
Egypt views Somalia as crucial in its strategy to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence along the Red Sea, especially after Ethiopia secured long-term naval access in Somaliland’s strategic port of Berbera—a move Mogadishu condemned as violating its sovereignty. Cairo’s shipment of armored vehicles and artillery to Somalia and the acceleration of bilateral defense pacts underline its urgency to build an anti-Ethiopian regional alliance.
Yet, despite these overtures, Mogadishu insists on maintaining neutrality. Hassan Sheikh has declined Ethiopian invitations related to the GERD project, signaling cautious detachment, but diplomatic neutrality grows harder to sustain. Ethiopian sources view Egyptian arms transfers as “destabilizing,” while Somali officials privately express anxiety about openly aligning with Cairo—fearing repercussions for vital aid, trade, and regional security.
Analysts stress Somalia must navigate carefully. Overt siding with Egypt or Ethiopia would endanger significant developmental and security benefits provided by both nations. With Ethiopia supplying scholarships and military training, and Egypt promising infrastructure investments and peacekeeping troops, the stakes are exceedingly high.
Somalia’s Parliament will closely question Hassan Sheikh on this delicate balancing act, especially as international negotiations on the Nile resume. Meanwhile, Cairo’s impending military confrontation with Addis Ababa could further polarize the Horn, forcing Somalia into an uncomfortable position of taking sides.
In the weeks ahead, Somalia’s diplomacy faces its greatest test. The decisions made now will shape not only Mogadishu’s future relationships with Egypt and Ethiopia but also the broader stability and power dynamics of the entire region.
Africa
West Africa’s Coup Crisis: Five Hard Lessons Every Defender of Democracy Must Know

West Africa’s Coup Wave: Five Shocking Truths Behind the Military Takeovers Fueling Democracy’s Collapse.
How contagion, civilian support, weak international response, learned tactics, and foreign alliances are reshaping Africa’s political landscape.
Five key lessons from recent West African coups reveal why military takeovers are spreading, gaining public backing, and outlasting expectations—threatening democratic progress across the region.
Five years after Malian soldiers toppled President Keïta, West Africa and parts of the continent face an alarming resurgence of military coups. From Mali to Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Chad, Guinea, and Gabon, the pattern is clear: coups are no longer isolated incidents but part of a spreading contagion threatening democratic governance.
The first truth is contagion itself. Successful takeovers embolden others, especially when coup leaders quickly consolidate control and avoid chaos. Potential plotters watch closely—if consequences are harsh, coups falter; if they succeed, copycats emerge.
Second, civilian support is pivotal. Masses cheering soldiers reflect deep dissatisfaction with civilian regimes, giving military rulers public legitimacy that shields them from opposition and international pressure. This support has been visible in Niger, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso.
Third, international responses often fail to deter. Weak, delayed sanctions and symbolic suspensions send mixed signals that coups carry few lasting costs. While Niger saw some pushback, countries like Chad and Gabon faced muted international pressure, enabling entrenched military rule.
Fourth, coup leaders learn from one another. They observe and adopt tactics to entrench authority—often using elections as facades to legitimize military regimes while maintaining absolute control. This strategy has extended average junta rule from weeks to nearly 1,000 days in this latest wave.
Finally, many coup governments have pivoted away from traditional Western allies, deepening ties with Russia and forming blocs like the Alliance of Sahel States, asserting sovereignty while entrenching authoritarianism.
Together, these lessons reveal a grim reality: treating coups as disconnected events ignores the powerful dynamics sustaining and spreading military rule. The global community must confront this networked threat decisively or risk watching democracy erode further across West Africa.
ASSESSMENTS
Kenya’s Gen Z Risks Death Protesting Crushing Economy and Police Brutality

Young Kenyans defy deadly crackdowns and economic despair, determined to oust President Ruto amid rising unemployment and government repression.
Facing joblessness and police violence, Kenya’s youth take to the streets again a year after anti-tax protests left 60 dead. With a looming protest ban, activists vow to keep fighting until government changes.
Kenya’s Gen Z: Fighting for Survival Amid Economic Despair and State Repression
Growing Outrage in Kenya Over Abductions of Government Critics
Kenya’s youth are at a breaking point. One year after deadly anti-tax protests left more than 60 young demonstrators dead, a new wave of defiance has erupted on the streets of Nairobi. Gen Z and millennials, burdened by soaring unemployment, sky-high living costs, and a government that dismisses their plight, are risking everything — even their lives — to demand change.
The grim reality is stark: Kenya’s youth unemployment rate hovers near 67%, with most working informally under precarious conditions. President William Ruto, elected in 2022 as the champion of the “hustler” class, is now widely seen as “Zakayo,” a greedy tax collector indifferent to everyday struggles. The promises of prosperity have given way to crackdowns and police brutality, with security forces killing at least 19 protesters in recent demonstrations.
Young activists like Wilson, who wrote his own obituary on social media before joining the protests, embody a generation that sees little hope within the current system. Their chants — “Ruto must go” and “End police brutality now” — resonate deeply with a public exhausted by economic hardship and state violence.
Despite the government’s attempts to quash dissent by branding protests as terrorism and drafting laws to ban demonstrations near key institutions, the protests show no signs of fading. Instead, they reflect a widening rift between a disconnected elite and a restless youth demanding political and economic justice.
While recent adjustments in tax policy indicate some government responsiveness, experts warn that without significant job creation and income growth, public frustration will continue to boil over. Kenya’s social fabric risks tearing further if the administration fails to heed the voices of its youngest citizens.
In this volatile moment, Kenya’s Gen Z is not just protesting taxes or policies — they are fighting for their very survival and dignity, sending a clear message that the status quo is no longer acceptable. The stakes are high, and the government’s response in the coming months will shape the country’s future stability.
Kenya in Chaos: Police Open Fire on Protesters Storming Parliament
ASSESSMENTS
A Critique of the Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Administration and the Halane Enigma

The current state of Somalia under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is not merely a period of governance; it is, by many accounts, a nadir in the nation’s tumultuous history. Far from leading a sovereign state, President Mohamud presides over what has, tragically, devolved into a personal enterprise, a “company” seemingly owned by him and his family, with credible independent reports even linking his administration to collaboration with the very terrorists, Al-Shabab, that plague the nation.
This is an administration widely perceived as the worst in the world, a stark betrayal of the Somali people’s aspirations for peace, security, and self-determination.
The core of this systemic failure lies within the fortified walls of Halane, the so-called “forbidden fortress of Somalia’s foreign minders.” This enclave, rather than fostering genuine state-building, has morphed into a self-perpetuating, colonial-like outpost, sustained by the apathy of generations of Somalis who have known no government truly worthy of their name.
A small, entrenched group, often referred to as the “Halane Mafia,” has, for two decades, completely hijacked the Somali administration. This clique, inherently against the very notion of Somalia becoming a secure, functioning, and independent country, actively resists the transfer of real power to Somali hands. Their grip is so absolute that it extends to denying Somalis even opportunities within their own land, as shockingly exemplified by the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) job advertisement for a Programme Support Officer in Mogadishu, explicitly stating: “Candidates must be a national of a country other than the country of assignment”—a blatant prohibition on Somali nationals from a role meant to support their own nation.
This is not capacity building; this is colonial perpetuation, where “failed Western actors” continue to preach development while ensuring continued dependence on foreign consultants and unreliable aid, now abandoning Somalis to their fate.
The consequences of this entrenched dysfunction are dire and far-reaching. Innocent Somalis are routinely mistreated in their own country, and hope, once a flicker, is rapidly fading. This ministerial failure is palpable, and the frustration simmers beneath the surface of a populace that increasingly sees no difference between the foreign-controlled Halane and the supposedly sovereign Villa Somalia. The clarion call, “Out with Halane,” grows louder by the day, reflecting a deep-seated yearning for genuine Somali leadership.
In this context of profound domestic instability and international manipulation, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s alleged intent to invade and wage war on Somaliland, purportedly due to dissatisfaction with its security situation, is not just a dangerous escalation but a grotesque irony.
To seek conflict with a stable, self-governing entity like Somaliland, while his own administration is embroiled in accusations of corruption, collaboration with terrorists, and being controlled by a foreign-backed cabal, speaks volumes about the priorities and capabilities of his leadership.
The security situation in Somaliland, in stark contrast to the chaos he presides over, is a testament to its own resilience and self-governance. This proposed aggression is a desperate diversion, a dangerous gamble by a leader whose legitimacy and effectiveness are crumbling under the weight of his own administration’s failures.
The long-term implications of this sustained misgovernance and external interference are catastrophic for Somalia’s future, threatening to condemn generations to perpetual instability and foreign subjugation.
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