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Russia-Ukraine War

Blaze Continues at Russian Oil Depot Amid Escalating Drone Attacks



A Russian oil depot burns for a second day after a drone attack, while a similar assault in Ukraine’s Lviv region injures one. Tensions rise with reports of brutal war crimes and power outages across Ukraine.

In the latest escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, firefighters in the Russian town of Azov are battling a relentless blaze at an oil depot, ignited by a drone attack. The fire, which started over 24 hours ago, underscores the intensifying use of drones in the conflict, targeting critical infrastructure on both sides.

The drone assault on Ukraine’s Lviv region resulted in significant damage to residential areas in the village of Malekhiv. Lviv’s mayor, Andriy Sadovyi, reported that a multi-story building was damaged, and windows in surrounding buildings were shattered. A 70-year-old man was injured and hospitalized in moderate condition.

Simultaneously, in Russia’s Rostov region, a fire at an oil storage facility in Azov continues to burn. The facility, hit by a drone attack, houses 22 oil reservoirs. A Ukrainian official confirmed that the operation was carried out by Ukraine’s Security Service, aiming to disrupt Russia’s war effort by targeting its energy infrastructure. Azov, located about 16 kilometers from the Sea of Azov, is strategically significant due to its proximity to major waterways.

The repercussions of the conflict are also felt in Ukraine, where Russian attacks on power plants have led to widespread blackouts. Ukrenergo, the national power provider, announced that all regional power distribution companies would implement hourly outages for both industrial and residential consumers. Critical infrastructure, however, would be spared.

This development follows previous efforts to limit power outages to the afternoon hours, highlighting the increasing strain on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as the conflict drags on.

In a grim revelation, Ukrainian prosecutors accused Russian troops of beheading a Ukrainian service member in the Donetsk region. The Prosecutor General’s office reported the discovery of a severed head in a damaged armored vehicle of the Ukrainian Defense Forces during an aerial reconnaissance mission. A disturbing photo of the vehicle, with the head blurred out, was shared on social media.

Additionally, Ukrainian authorities sentenced a resident of Kostyantynivka, near the front line, to 15 years in prison for providing intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements to Russian forces. This incident reflects the broader scope of Ukraine’s efforts to crack down on collaborators, with the United Nations noting over 6,600 criminal cases against individuals aiding Russia since the war began.

The ongoing violence between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with drone attacks, infrastructure damage, and harrowing allegations of war crimes intensifying the conflict. As both nations grapple with the fallout, the humanitarian and political ramifications are profound, driving further instability and suffering on all fronts.

Russia-Ukraine War

Zelenskyy to Address British Cabinet in Historic Appeal for Support



Zelenskyy to Address British Cabinet in Historic Appeal for Support

In a historic first since 1997, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will personally address the British Cabinet on Friday, making a direct appeal for increased support in Ukraine’s ongoing struggle against Russian aggression. This landmark event, reminiscent of when U.S. President Bill Clinton addressed the Cabinet, underscores the gravity of Ukraine’s situation and the importance of European solidarity.

President Zelenskyy is set to brief British ministers on the critical developments in Ukraine, urging European nations to boost defense production to counter the relentless Russian offensive. His visit is also aimed at finalizing a significant treaty with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which will grant Ukraine access to $4.5 billion in export financing for purchasing weapons.

“Ukraine is, and always will be, at the heart of this government’s agenda, and so it is only fitting that President Zelenskyy will make a historic address to my Cabinet,” Starmer declared. He emphasized that Russia’s incremental battlefield gains are dwarfed by the robust international support for Ukraine and the deep ties between the Ukrainian and British peoples.

In an interview with the BBC, Zelenskyy highlighted the urgent need for clarification regarding the use of Storm Shadow missiles provided by Britain against Russian targets. He stressed the necessity of these long-range weapons to effectively counter Russian attacks on Ukrainian hospitals and schools. “We need very strong support from the prime minister,” Zelenskyy asserted. “We need a decision about long distance weapons, long range, to use it. We need it very much. They’re targeting our hospitals, schools. We just want to answer exactly to the point where from they target us.”

The Storm Shadow missile, an air-launched cruise missile with a range exceeding 250 kilometers, could significantly enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities. British Defense Secretary John Healey confirmed that Ukraine has permission to use these missiles against Russian targets. However, he noted that the rules governing their use are complex and subject to ongoing negotiations. “We’re providing weapons to Ukraine for their defense of their sovereign country, and that does not preclude them hitting targets in Russia, but that must be done by the Ukrainians. It must be done within the parameters and the bounds of international humanitarian law,” Healey told the BBC.

The upcoming address comes amid a security-focused summit in Britain, where European leaders have voiced their support for Ukraine and expressed concerns about the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy. The summit has been clouded by apprehensions over whether the United States will remain a steadfast ally to Ukraine under shifting political dynamics.

As Zelenskyy prepares to make his case to the British Cabinet, the international community watches closely. His appeal is not just for military aid but for a reaffirmation of Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and democratic future. The outcome of this historic address could shape the next phase of international response to the crisis in Ukraine, underscoring the pivotal role of European unity and leadership.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Europe’s Security Concerns Beyond the Ukraine War



Ending the Ukraine conflict won’t eliminate the broader threats from Russia, warn top European and U.S. officials.

European and U.S. officials warn that the threat from Russia will persist beyond the Ukraine war, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and strategic readiness.

The annual Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colorado, served as a stark reminder of the enduring geopolitical tensions facing Europe and the United States. Top European diplomats and U.S. military officials underscored that even a resolution to the war in Ukraine would not end the broader threats posed by Russia. This gathering of influential voices highlighted the complex and ongoing nature of security challenges in the region.

U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, head of U.S. European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander, articulated the gravity of the situation. “The outcome on the ground is terribly, terribly important,” Cavoli said, stressing the significance of the conflict’s resolution. However, he cautioned against any illusions that peace in Ukraine would equate to an end of hostilities with Russia. “At the end of a conflict in Ukraine, however it concludes, we are going to have a very, very big Russia problem,” Cavoli warned, highlighting the potential for a reconstituted and even more antagonistic Russian force on NATO’s borders.

Echoing Cavoli’s sentiments, Jens Plötner, Germany’s foreign and security adviser, painted a grim picture of a prolonged conflict. “By the choice of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, we are entering a phase of a long, drawn-out conflict with Russia,” Plötner remarked. He pointed out that the war in Ukraine is only the most visible aspect of Russia’s broader hybrid warfare strategy, which includes activities across Europe and beyond, from Africa to alliances with nations like Iran and North Korea.

Plötner’s comments came amid heightened security concerns in Germany, particularly following reports of a Russian plot to assassinate the CEO of Rheinmetall, a leading defense company. While Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed these reports as fake, German authorities remain vigilant, having already thwarted similar plots.

The broader European security landscape is increasingly troubled by Russian espionage and interference. German authorities have arrested individuals linked to Russian espionage and sabotage efforts, including plans to attack U.S. military facilities to disrupt aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence has flagged Russian attempts to meddle in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, aiming to bolster candidates favorable to Moscow.

Jonatan Vseviov, secretary-general at Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, urged Western nations to remain clear-eyed about Putin’s tactics. “His foreign minister, I think yesterday, talked about peace. This is him laying a trap,” Vseviov warned, emphasizing that Putin’s overtures for peace are often strategic maneuvers meant to disrupt Western unity and policy.

Amidst these high-stakes warnings, the backdrop of the Republican National Convention highlighted a contrasting narrative. Supporters of former President Donald Trump promoted the idea that “Trump will end the Ukraine war,” with Trump’s vice-presidential pick, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, advocating for a negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine. However, this stance has been met with skepticism and criticism from European officials who stress the importance of a strong, united response to Russian aggression.

Vance’s comments at a security conference in Munich, where he suggested that Europe needs to become more self-sufficient, sparked debate. European leaders have pointed to initiatives like the development of a deep-strike precision missile capability as evidence of their commitment to self-defense and countering Russia’s military buildup.

General Cavoli’s remarks at the Aspen Forum sought to dispel notions of European complacency. He praised the continent’s proactive stance, noting, “This is a different Europe than the Europe we complained about for years.” Cavoli emphasized that Europe now recognizes the need for shared defense burdens and is organizing accordingly. “This is exactly the partner we’ve been looking for for three decades,” he stated, highlighting the current moment as an optimal time for U.S.-European collaboration.

The discussions at the Aspen Security Forum underscored a sobering reality: the end of the Ukraine war, whenever it may come, will not mark the end of security threats from Russia. The Western alliance must prepare for a sustained period of strategic competition and potential conflict, with Russia continuing to pose a multifaceted threat to regional and global stability.

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NATO Command to Revolutionize Ukraine Aid, Operational by September



Stoltenberg Unveils Bold New Strategy Amidst Intensifying Conflict

In a dramatic turn of events, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg revealed that a new command center focused on coordinating military aid and training for Ukraine will be operational by September. This strategic hub, based in Germany and led by a three-star general with a team of 700 personnel, promises to revolutionize how aid is delivered to Ukraine, making the assistance more efficient and predictable amid the relentless Russian onslaught.

The decision, made during a high-stakes NATO summit, underscores the alliance’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine. This new command center could be a game-changer, centralizing efforts and ensuring that military support reaches the Ukrainian front lines more effectively. As Stoltenberg made this groundbreaking announcement, he stood on the brink of a crucial meeting involving 50 European leaders in Britain, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also present, hinting at new security agreements in the pipeline.

Ukraine, embroiled in a fierce battle for its survival, continues to fend off Russian attacks. Just recently, the Ukrainian military intercepted 16 Russian aerial drones and two guided missiles targeting key regions like Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia. Despite the constant threat, Ukrainian air defenses remain resilient, shooting down drones before they could wreak havoc. The regional governor of Dnipropetrovsk reported injuries and damage from these relentless attacks, highlighting the civilian toll of this brutal conflict.

Russia, on the other hand, claimed to have destroyed 33 Ukrainian aerial drones and 10 naval drones, allegedly heading toward the Russia-occupied Crimean Peninsula. With aerial drones shot down over Crimea and Bryansk, Russia’s defense ministry’s narrative paints a picture of an ongoing, fierce aerial battle with high stakes on both sides.

As the war rages on, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov dropped a bombshell at the Aspen Security Forum, revealing that a staggering 500,000 Russian troops are currently surrounding Ukraine, with plans to bolster this force by an additional 200,000 to 300,000 troops. Umerov’s chilling statistics of 550,000 Russians killed or wounded in the two-year conflict underscore the scale of the human cost. He also pointed out Russia’s increasing reliance on mercenaries, including those from Africa, to sustain its military campaign.

In a controversial push, Ukraine is lobbying to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against deep Russian targets. Umerov articulated a shift from focusing on weapon range to their functionality, indicating a strategic pivot that could reshape the battlefield dynamics. This bold stance reveals Ukraine’s desperation and determination to strike back more effectively against Russian aggression.

Amidst the chaos, a glimmer of humanity shone through as Russia and Ukraine conducted their 54th prisoner swap since the invasion began. This latest exchange saw 95 prisoners from each side returning home, facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s gratitude towards the UAE for their role in these exchanges highlights the complex web of international diplomacy at play.

The imminent activation of NATO’s new command center in Germany marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict. This command could drastically enhance the coordination of military aid to Ukraine, potentially tipping the scales in favor of the beleaguered nation. The global implications of this move are profound, signaling a more robust and unified NATO response to Russian aggression.

The Ukrainian military’s resilience and NATO’s renewed commitment paint a picture of defiance against overwhelming odds. Yet, the human cost remains staggering, with both military and civilian lives continually at risk. As the conflict grinds on, the world watches, captivated by the unfolding drama and the high-stakes maneuvers that could determine the future of Ukraine and the stability of the region.

In conclusion, NATO’s bold move to establish a new command center for Ukraine aid is a strategic masterstroke that promises to enhance military support and coordination. As the war with Russia intensifies, the stakes have never been higher, and the international community’s response will be crucial in shaping the outcome. The coming months will undoubtedly be critical, as NATO’s new command becomes operational and Ukraine continues its valiant fight for sovereignty and survival.

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US Warns of Escalating Space Threats from Russia and China



US Intelligence Highlights Growing Concerns Over Space-Based Weapons and Strategic Alliances

The United States is sounding the alarm over the growing threat posed by Russia and China in space, warning that both nations are moving closer to deploying space-based weapons. U.S. military and intelligence agencies emphasize that these developments could significantly impact America’s defense capabilities.

Lieutenant General Jeff Kruse, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, underscored the gravity of the situation at the Aspen Security Forum, stating, “Both Russia and China view the use of space early on, even ahead of conflict, as important capabilities to deter or to compel behaviors. We just need to be ready.”

The urgency of these concerns was amplified earlier this year when House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner called for the declassification of information related to a new Russian anti-satellite capability involving nuclear weapons. While the White House has acknowledged awareness of Russia’s plans, it maintains that Moscow has not yet deployed such a capability.

Kruse confirmed that the U.S. has been monitoring Russia’s intent to place nuclear weapons in space for nearly a decade. “They have progressed down to a point where we think they’re getting close,” he said, warning that Russia is unlikely to decelerate without significant repercussions.

Despite repeated denials from Russian and Chinese officials, U.S. concerns persist. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov dismissed U.S. allegations as “fake news,” while a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in Washington accused the U.S. of using the space threat narrative to justify its own military expansion.

However, Kruse pointed to China’s rapid expansion in space as equally troubling. “China is the one country that more so even than the United States has a space doctrine, a space strategy, and they train and exercise the use of space and counterspace capabilities in a way that we just don’t see elsewhere,” he said.

General Stephen Whiting of U.S. Space Command echoed these concerns, describing China’s strategic buildup as a “kill web” in space. “In the last six years, they’ve tripled the number of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance satellites they have on orbit,” Whiting said, highlighting the threat to U.S. and allied forces in the Indo-Pacific region.

The lack of military communication with China about space operations adds another layer of risk, according to Whiting. “We want to have a way to talk to them about space safety as they put more satellites on orbit,” he said, to prevent miscommunication and unintended actions.

As Russia and China continue to advance their space capabilities, the U.S. must navigate these emerging threats to maintain its strategic advantage and ensure global security.

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Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainian Air Defenses Down 16 Russian Drones in Overnight Attacks



Interceptions Across Multiple Regions as Ukraine Faces Continued Aerial Threats

Ukraine’s military reported on Thursday that it intercepted 16 Russian aerial drones and two guided missiles targeting Ukraine in overnight attacks. The Ukrainian air force said the intercepts took place over the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Serhiy Lysak, the regional governor of Dnipropetrovsk, mentioned on Telegram that the Russian attacks injured two people and damaged 14 residential buildings. In Kyiv, alarms were triggered by the threat of aerial attacks, but Ukrainian air defenses successfully shot down the Russian drones before they reached the area, according to Serhiy Popko, head of the Kyiv city administration.

In response, Russia’s defense ministry claimed it destroyed 33 Ukrainian aerial drones and 10 naval drones. The naval drones were heading toward the Russia-occupied Crimean Peninsula, while the aerial drones were shot down over Crimea and Bryansk. Bryansk Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz reported no casualties or damage in his area.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, revealed that 500,000 Russian troops are currently surrounding Ukraine, with plans to increase this number by 200,000 to 300,000 more in the coming months. Umerov also stated that 550,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in the conflict, highlighting Russia’s reliance on mercenaries, including those from Africa.

Regarding Ukraine’s push to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons against deep targets inside Russia, Umerov emphasized a shift from focusing on the range to the functionality of these weapons. “We want to change it from a limit on length to a focus on functionality,” he said, indicating ongoing efforts to address this issue.

Additionally, Russia and Ukraine swapped 95 prisoners each on Wednesday, marking the third prisoner exchange between the two nations in seven weeks. This was the 54th exchange since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The United Arab Emirates has been facilitating these swaps, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressing gratitude to the UAE for its assistance in the latest exchange.

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More Patriots and F-16s for Ukraine, But Deep Strikes in Russia Remain Off-Limits



U.S. Enhances Ukraine’s Defense Capabilities Amid Escalating Conflict, Avoids Provoking Wider War with Long-Range Strikes

In a crucial pivot to bolster Ukraine’s defense, the United States has ramped up support with additional Patriot air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets. Yet, despite Ukrainian appeals for greater flexibility to strike deeper into Russian territory, the U.S. remains firm on its current policy, avoiding actions that could escalate the conflict into a broader war.

In a revealing interview with Voice of America, Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder elaborated on these critical decisions, shedding light on the intricacies of U.S. support for Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict with Russia.

President Biden recently announced the deployment of additional Patriot batteries to Ukraine, a move underscoring the high priority placed on enhancing Ukraine’s air defense. When pressed about the timeline for delivery, Ryder emphasized operational security but assured that efforts to expedite these systems are underway. The urgency is palpable, especially after recent Russian missile strikes, including a devastating attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv.

Ryder acknowledged that the Patriot systems would require Ukrainian soldiers to undergo extensive training to ensure their effective deployment. “Air defense for Ukraine has been a priority for Secretary Austin and the U.S. government for a while now,” Ryder stated, highlighting the continuous efforts to equip Ukraine against relentless Russian missile assaults.

The arrival of F-16 fighter jets, another significant boost to Ukraine’s defense arsenal, comes with its own set of challenges. These high-tech aircraft will be prime targets for Russian forces. Ryder detailed how the U.S., alongside Denmark and the Netherlands, is leading efforts to train Ukrainian pilots and maintainers on the complex systems. This comprehensive training is crucial for ensuring the jets’ operational readiness and survivability in a hostile environment.

Despite these advancements, the U.S. maintains a cautious stance on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons, particularly the ATACMS missiles. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for lifting restrictions on these weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory. However, Ryder reiterated that the U.S. policy remains unchanged, driven by concerns over potential escalation. “We don’t want to see unintended consequences and escalation to make this a broader conflict,” Ryder explained, emphasizing the delicate balance of providing robust support while avoiding actions that could widen the war.

The Pentagon’s strategy includes recent permissions allowing Ukraine to strike Russian targets just across the border, a move aimed at defending regions like Kharkiv from immediate threats. Yet, Ryder pointed out the importance of considering the broader implications of deeper strikes inside Russia. “You have to look at the second and third-order effects in terms of potential escalation,” he noted, underscoring the careful calculus behind U.S. military support.

In addition to enhancing Ukraine’s immediate defense capabilities, long-term support plans are also taking shape. NATO’s announcement of a new command center in Wiesbaden, Germany, is a significant step toward coordinated and sustained assistance for Ukraine. This three-star command center will focus on training and security assistance, aligning efforts with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to ensure seamless support.

As Ukraine aspires to join NATO, this initiative will play a pivotal role in building interoperability and strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities. “This will be complementary to and supportive of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group,” Ryder explained, highlighting the strategic importance of this command center in preparing Ukraine for future NATO membership.

The U.S. continues to walk a tightrope, providing substantial support to Ukraine while meticulously avoiding actions that could provoke a wider war. As the conflict evolves, the Pentagon remains steadfast in its commitment to helping Ukraine defend its sovereignty without crossing lines that could trigger dangerous escalations. This careful balancing act is crucial as the world watches the unfolding drama in Eastern Europe.

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Modern Warfare

Russia Claims Destruction of 13 Ukrainian Drones Amid Ongoing Border Shelling



Tensions Escalate as Both Sides Report Damage and Injuries in Latest Drone and Shelling Incidents

Russia’s military reports destroying 13 Ukrainian drones as cross-border shelling continues. Both sides report significant damage and casualties, heightening regional tensions.

Russia’s military announced on Tuesday that it successfully destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones, intensifying the already fraught conflict. According to the Russian defense ministry, nine drones were taken down over the Rostov region, fortunately resulting in no casualties. Additional Ukrainian drones were intercepted over the Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh regions, and even over the Black Sea near Crimea, which is under Russian control.

In Kursk, Governor Alexey Smirnov revealed that a Ukrainian drone attack ignited a fire at an electrical device factory in Korenevo. Miraculously, no workers were injured. Meanwhile, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported that Ukrainian shelling damaged multiple buildings in several villages and injured at least eight people.

On the Ukrainian side, Serhiy Lysak, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, stated that Ukrainian air defenses had downed a Russian drone overnight. Officials in the Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv regions also reported that their areas had suffered from Russian shelling.

This latest round of attacks and counter-attacks highlights the escalating tension and violence along the Russia-Ukraine border. The destruction and casualties continue to mount, painting a grim picture of the ongoing conflict. Both nations remain locked in a bitter struggle, with civilians often caught in the crossfire, as evidenced by the recent injuries and damage reported in various regions.

The persistent drone warfare and artillery strikes underscore the complexity and brutality of the situation, as each side grapples for control and retribution. As these events unfold, the international community watches closely, apprehensive about the potential for further escalation and the broader implications for regional stability.

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Russia-Ukraine War

China’s Defiant Signal to NATO: Military Drills in Belarus



China and Belarus have embarked on joint military exercises this week, seen by experts as a calculated response to NATO’s growing interest in the Asia-Pacific region. This move underscores China’s increasing involvement in Europe and raises questions about its long-term strategic intentions.

Just a day before NATO’s summit, where Japan and South Korea were key participants, China initiated 11 days of anti-terrorism exercises with Belarus in Brest, a city uncomfortably close to NATO member Poland. Belarus, a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been instrumental in supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sharing borders with both Ukraine and Poland.

Dubbed “Eagle Assault 2024,” these drills aim to enhance military interoperability, focusing on night landings, overcoming water obstacles, and urban operations, as stated by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. As the exercises proceeded, Chinese and Belarusian military representatives convened to discuss joint logistics, further solidifying their collaborative capabilities.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, when pressed about the implications for NATO and Polish security, deflected, suggesting that such questions be directed to “competent authorities.” He emphasized that the exercises do not target any specific country, framing them as a reflection of the deepening ties between China and Belarus. Belarus, the newest member of the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, has seen its president, Alexander Lukashenko, engage in high-level meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

During talks in Beijing, Wang expressed China’s commitment to deepening high-level exchanges and strengthening strategic cooperation with Belarus, advancing their comprehensive partnership. This partnership, according to Chinese state media, aims to oppose external interference and resist unilateral bullying.

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, highlighted the significance of Belarus to China, noting that political solidarity and trade between the two countries have seen tremendous progress since the expansion of China’s Belt and Road Initiative into Belarus. She emphasized that Belarus offers China strong support in Eastern Europe and the Global South.

United by their support for Russia’s war on Ukraine, authoritarian political systems, and general discontent with the Western-led international order, China and Belarus are forging a closer alliance. China’s diplomatic efforts often target similar states, maintaining alliances with North Korea and a “no limits” strategic partnership with Russia.

China’s focus on Eastern Europe as a frontier for engagement has become more pronounced. During a European tour in May, Xi Jinping visited Serbia and Hungary, pledging to build a “Chinese-Serbian community with a shared future in the new era” and elevating relations with Hungary to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.”

As China strengthens ties with Eastern Europe, it continues to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, providing an economic buffer against Western sanctions and supplying dual-use technology that could be used in weapons against Ukraine. Despite this support, China remains cautious about offering overt military aid to Russia, fearing Western sanctions.

Supporting Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, signals to the West that China is prepared to engage in military cooperation near EU and NATO borders. China’s objection to NATO’s involvement with South Korea and Japan is clear. Lin, in a recent news conference, criticized NATO for expanding its mandate and stoking confrontation.

Analysts see the military collaboration with Belarus as marking a new chapter in China’s European foreign policy objectives. Yun Sun noted that China’s cautious approach to extending military presence to Europe is changing, with the joint exercise evidently linked to the NATO summit in Washington, which included Japanese and Korean participation. This exercise, she argued, is a tit-for-tat response.

Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for U.S.-China at the International Crisis Group, wrote that with the U.S. reinvigorating its alliances in Europe and Asia, China seeks to demonstrate its ability to form coalitions, deepening ties with U.S. competitors and adversaries.

Michal Bogusz, an analyst at the Polish Center of Eastern Studies, views the Eagle Assault exercise and increasing collaboration between Beijing and Belarus as part of a global expansion of informal relationships among authoritarian regimes. He suggested that recent visits and support among China, Russia, and North Korea indicate a coordinated effort to strengthen their de facto alliance.

The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in 2025, with China assuming the rotating presidency, will be a critical moment to observe the evolving dynamics of this alliance.

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