Analysis
Xi and Putin Unite at Central Asian Summit to Challenge U.S. Hegemony

Leaders of China and Russia Strengthen Ties Amid Growing Influence in Central Asia
In a bid to counter what they see as U.S.-led dominance on the global stage, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held pivotal talks at a security summit in Kazakhstan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which aims to address Eurasian security concerns, saw both leaders reaffirming their partnership and discussing strategies to enhance their influence in the region.
Established in 2001 by China and Russia, the SCO serves as a forum for these two powerhouses to project their influence across Eurasia. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov highlighted the significance of this gathering, emphasizing that the SCO, along with BRICS, represents “the main pillars of the new world order,” advocating for genuine multilateralism in global affairs.
The BRICS coalition, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, recently extended invitations to six more countries: Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, underscored the importance of the SCO summit, stating it would “build more consensus among all parties and promote security, stability, and development of member countries.”
This summit also provided Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations an opportunity to bolster their ties with these influential neighbors. Notably, the timing of this summit is crucial as China and Russia continue to deepen their relationship. In 2022, China declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia, and since then, Beijing has portrayed itself as a neutral actor in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Xi and Putin last met in May when Putin visited Beijing. Since then, China has extended diplomatic support to Russia and emerged as a primary market for Russian oil and gas. Despite their burgeoning ties, Central Asia remains a contested space for both countries. For Russia, the region comprises five former Soviet republics with deep-rooted cultural and economic ties. For China, Central Asia is crucial for its Belt and Road initiative, raising concerns over potential threats to Russia’s influence.
Analysts suggest that the summit’s discussions may have underlying implications, as both nations need to balance their competing interests in Central Asia while pursuing closer cooperation.
Eoin Micheál McNamara, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, noted that the SCO allows China and Russia to engage in collective dialogue with Central Asian states, helping manage mutual suspicions about each other’s intentions in the region.
“The SCO is therefore useful to keep the China-Russia alliance together as a force in wider great power politics,” McNamara explained. Carol Saivetz, a senior fellow at MIT’s Security Studies Program, anticipated that participants would discuss security in abstract terms and focus on economic projects. Historically, there was an implicit understanding that China would handle economic issues while Russia acted as the region’s security guarantor. However, with the ongoing war in Ukraine, China might exploit the instability to expand its influence.
Saivetz highlighted Xi’s early arrival to meet with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and his subsequent visit to Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe, as indicators that China is not limiting its options to multilateral formats or Moscow. Despite the war in Ukraine overshadowing the summit, public discussion on the topic is unlikely due to differing opinions among Central Asian states.
Tina Dolbaia, a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that discussions about the Ukraine war would probably occur behind closed doors. She emphasized the relevance of the Ukraine conflict to the power struggle between China and Russia in Central Asia. “Putin is currently willing to underestimate and overlook China’s rising role in Russia’s ‘backyard’ due to the importance of countering the West in Ukraine and establishing a multi-polar world order,” Dolbaia explained.
Despite the significant influence wielded by China and Russia in the region, Central Asia’s loyalties are not firmly aligned with either. Dolbaia noted that Central Asian countries understand the need to navigate their relationships with both powers carefully. As the SCO summit concludes, the delicate balance of power in Central Asia remains a focal point for both Beijing and Moscow, highlighting the intricate dynamics of their partnership amid growing global tensions.
Analysis
Trump’s Somalia Warpath: Unleashing Firepower to Crush ISIS Hideouts

Trump escalates US airstrikes in Somalia, vowing to crush ISIS-Somalia in Puntland’s mountains. With IS now a global threat, will relentless strikes follow?
Donald Trump has thrown down the gauntlet in Somalia, launching airstrikes against ISIS strongholds and declaring all-out war against jihadists hiding in Puntland’s rugged terrain. With a signature show of force, he boasted of wiping out terrorist caves and eliminating high-value targets in a single decisive hit. Unlike Biden, who wavered, Trump is making it clear—Somalia is back on America’s radar, and the hunt for terror has no borders.
The Somali government, desperate for US backing, is scrambling to praise Trump’s intervention. But airstrikes alone won’t be enough. Puntland forces, already in the trenches fighting ISIS for years, demand more than token American firepower. They are battling a growing force, swelling with foreign jihadists and financed through a sophisticated extortion network. From Ethiopian recruits to North African operatives, ISIS-Somalia has become the terror network’s new heartbeat, channeling cash, fighters, and ideology across Africa and beyond.
Trump’s strikes are a message—not just to ISIS, but to Iran-backed Houthis, who arm Somali insurgents from across the Red Sea. US Africa Command warns that ISIS-Somalia has doubled in size, threatening the West with terror exports. The December attack on a Puntland military base was just the beginning. If left unchecked, the jihadists will turn Somalia into a launchpad for global terror.
But will Trump’s warpath continue, or is this just a headline-grabbing display? Airstrikes won’t be enough to uproot an entrenched insurgency. Puntland wants more—sustained operations, intelligence, and direct US military support. Without it, ISIS will regroup, recruit, and return stronger than ever. The question remains: Is Trump ready for a long war, or is Somalia just a convenient battleground for his next bold statement?
Analysis
Trump’s Sanctions Slam ICC for Targeting US and Israel—Global Legal Order Under Siege?

Trump declares war on the International Criminal Court, imposing sanctions after arrest warrants for Netanyahu. Will the ICC survive, or has Trump rewritten the rules of global justice?
Trump just flipped the script on international justice. The ICC dared to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his defense minister, and now Trump has unleashed the full force of US sanctions, branding the court’s actions as a direct assault on American and Israeli sovereignty. With a single executive order, he’s blocking ICC officials’ assets, banning them from entering the US, and sending a crystal-clear message—Washington and its allies are above this court’s reach.
The move isn’t just retaliation; it’s a full-scale counteroffensive against what Trump calls a “corrupt, illegitimate” body that has no right to prosecute non-member states. His stance is simple: the ICC has no authority over Israel or the US, and any attempt to claim jurisdiction will come at a price. This isn’t the first time Trump has crushed the ICC—his 2020 sanctions paralyzed the court’s operations when it dared investigate US troops in Afghanistan. Now, he’s doubling down.
The ICC, headquartered in The Hague, is reeling. Officials fear that Trump’s sanctions could cripple the court, making it impossible to function. Amnesty International and legal watchdogs are sounding the alarm, calling Trump’s order an existential threat to global justice. But to Trump and Netanyahu, this is about survival—Israel is in the fight of its life in Gaza, and they won’t let an international tribunal dictate their war strategy.
This showdown isn’t just about Netanyahu. It’s a warning shot to every international body that challenges US and Israeli military actions. Trump has drawn the line in the sand, and the message is clear: America and its closest allies will not be shackled by foreign courts. With the ICC now facing its greatest crisis, the world is left wondering—will the court stand its ground, or will Trump’s power play shatter it for good?
Analysis
Trump Considers Moving Gazans to Somaliland, Morocco, or Puntland

Trump eyes Morocco, Puntland, and Somaliland as destinations for displaced Gazans in a high-stakes power play.
Donald Trump’s latest foreign policy move is nothing short of a geopolitical earthquake—a proposal to forcefully relocate Gazans to Morocco, Puntland, or Somaliland while the U.S. takes control of the Gaza Strip. This plan, revealed in reports following Trump’s White House meeting with Netanyahu, underscores his aggressive push to reshape the Middle East on his own terms.
“They won’t tell me no,” Trump declared, referring to Jordan and Egypt, suggesting that regional powers will have no choice but to comply. He envisions Gaza’s population being “given a fresh, beautiful piece of land,” funded by yet-to-be-named donors, turning this chaotic crisis into what he describes as a clean slate.
Why These Three Destinations?
The selection of Morocco, Puntland, and Somaliland is not random. These territories share one crucial trait: They all need something from the U.S.
Somaliland is desperate for international recognition and economic support. Trump’s deal could serve as their “ticket” to legitimacy on the world stage.
Morocco is engaged in an ongoing battle over the Western Sahara, where U.S. backing could be a game-changer for its claims.
By dangling U.S. diplomatic leverage, Trump is attempting to convert geopolitical desperation into a migration solution.
The High-Risk Gamble
But can these regions even handle such an influx?
Somaliland and Puntland, though stable compared to Somalia, are still fragile and lack the infrastructure to absorb potentially millions of displaced Gazans.
Morocco has been cautious with past refugee waves, and such a move could inflame regional tensions.
The Middle East could erupt if Palestinians are forcibly removed from their homeland, with Hamas and other factions seeing this as a final act of ethnic cleansing.
Trump’s Vision: A Game-Changer or a Disaster?
While Trump presents this as a grand solution to Gaza’s instability, it risks setting off new conflicts across Africa and the Middle East. The idea of the U.S. seizing control of Gaza while reshuffling its population is a throwback to colonial-style power plays, which could backfire spectacularly.
If Trump moves forward with this radical plan, it will be one of the most aggressive geopolitical gambits in modern history, redefining not only the future of Gaza but also U.S. influence in Africa and the Arab world. The only question is: Who will dare to resist?
Analysis
M23 Ceasefire in DRC: A Fragile Truce or a Tactical Pause?

As M23 halts its advance, fears loom over the sustainability of peace in eastern Congo.
M23’s sudden ceasefire declaration in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has paused the bloodshed—for now. The rebel group, which has wreaked havoc across the region, claims it is stopping its military operations for humanitarian reasons. But in a battlefield dominated by over 100 armed factions, many see this move as a temporary maneuver rather than a lasting peace effort.
The streets of Goma are tense but active. Aid groups are racing against time to assist thousands wounded and displaced by the recent onslaught of violence between M23 and pro-government militias. Meanwhile, in South Kivu, M23 fighters remain stationed just kilometers from Bukavu, their guns silent—for now.
This ceasefire follows urgent diplomatic intervention from the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern Africa Regional Community (SADC), who are now scrambling to forge a political solution. With Kinshasa and Kigali locked in an escalating dispute, regional leaders are set to meet in Tanzania in an attempt to de-escalate the crisis.
But the bigger question remains—is this truce real or just another strategic pause? U.N. agencies report that 770 bodies littered the streets of Goma, with 2,880 more injured, underscoring the brutal toll of this conflict. The Red Cross is struggling to collect the dead, while humanitarian groups plead for the Goma airport to be reopened to deliver medical aid and evacuate the critically wounded.
The biggest threat to this ceasefire? The Wazalendo and other militias not bound by the truce. These groups reject M23’s deal, and without their inclusion in peace talks, the cycle of war in the mineral-rich killing fields of eastern Congo will rage on.
Meanwhile, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, who snubbed last week’s EAC summit, is now expected to face off with Rwandan President Paul Kagame at the upcoming regional crisis meeting. With Rwanda’s support for M23 already verified by the U.N., the chances of a lasting peace remain dangerously slim.
For now, the guns are silent. But in a region where ceasefires are often just another phase in the war, the question isn’t if the fighting will resume—but when.
Analysis
Dermer Steps In: A Power Move in Gaza Negotiations That Could Reshape the Middle East

Analysis
Trump’s Middle East Playbook: Expanding the Canvas to Cut a Deal

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, the stage is set for another high-stakes negotiation in the Middle East. Drawing from his 2017 strategy, Trump appears ready to broaden the diplomatic canvas to force movement on the Gaza war, hostage deals, and regional realignments.
Trump’s Game Plan: A Bigger Deal for a Bigger Concession
Trump’s Middle East policy has always been defined by thinking beyond traditional frameworks. In 2017, he abandoned the two-state orthodoxy, signaling openness to alternatives. Now, he seems poised to redefine the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by weaving it into a larger regional deal, which could involve Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states.
The sticking point in the hostage deal negotiations remains Hamas’ demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war—something Netanyahu has categorically rejected. Trump’s approach? Offer Israel incentives to compromise by tying the deal to something far bigger: Saudi normalization, security guarantees, and population redistribution.
The “Refugee Relocation” Bargain
Trump’s most controversial proposal—convincing third countries to take in Gazan refugees—aims to ease pressure on Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. If Israel agrees to a ceasefire and limited withdrawal, Trump could leverage U.S. influence to pressure Gulf states into absorbing displaced Palestinians. This would not only weaken Hamas’ grip but also neutralize domestic Israeli opposition to a broader settlement.
Saudi Normalization: Netanyahu’s Escape Route?
Trump may also revive the Abraham Accords momentum, offering Saudi recognition of Israel as the ultimate prize—provided Israel makes limited concessions on Gaza’s governance. In 2020, Trump convinced Netanyahu to freeze West Bank annexation in exchange for peace deals with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Could he pull off a similar trade-off in 2025?
Netanyahu’s Political Dilemma
Unlike 2017, Netanyahu now faces serious constraints:
- A weakened domestic position due to judicial conflicts and the ICC arrest warrant threat.
- A right-wing coalition that opposes any compromise with the Palestinians.
- Hamas’ continued presence in Gaza, which complicates any ceasefire agreement.
While Trump’s deal-making instincts suggest a grand bargain is on the table, Netanyahu’s ability to sell it at home is highly questionable. If he accepts too many concessions, his government could collapse—but if he rejects Trump’s expanded vision, he risks alienating his most powerful ally.
Ultimately, Trump is playing the long game, and if his strategy of “expanding the canvas” succeeds, the Middle East could see a historic power shift—one that reshapes alliances, redraws battle lines, and alters the fate of Gaza’s population. The question remains: Will Netanyahu gamble on a bigger deal, or will his political reality force him into a corner?
Analysis
Senior ISIS Commander Captured in Puntland as U.S. Airstrikes Cripple Somalia’s Jihadist Network

Security forces in Puntland have captured Abdirahman Shirwac Aw-Saciid, the leader of the group’s assassination squad and a key operative in its extortion network. The arrest comes just two days after U.S. airstrikes targeted senior ISIS leadership, intensifying pressure on the group amid a growing Puntland offensive against both ISIS and Al-Shabaab.
A Crumbling Jihadist Network
Once seen as a fringe element compared to Al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia has rapidly expanded in recent years, fueled by foreign fighters and an enhanced financial system. The group has increasingly used sophisticated tactics, including booby-trapped vehicles, signaling an evolution in their operational capabilities.
Shirwac, also known as “Laahoor”, was captured in the Cal Miskaad mountains, a key hideout in Puntland’s Bari region, where the group has been entrenched. His role in assassination operations and extortion made him one of the most dangerous figures within Somalia’s ISIS faction.
Puntland’s Offensive and U.S. Military Support
The Puntland state government launched a full-scale offensive in December, targeting both ISIS and its longtime rival, Al-Shabaab. The Somali government, still struggling with decades of instability, sees Puntland’s campaign as a critical front in the battle against terrorism.
Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes on Saturday in the Golis Mountains dealt another devastating blow to ISIS-Somalia, reportedly killing multiple high-ranking operatives. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized that these strikes were part of a broader strategy to dismantle ISIS’ global network.
The Bigger Picture: Somalia’s Security Crisis
While Al-Shabaab still remains the dominant jihadist force in Somalia, ISIS-Somalia has carved out a deadly foothold in Puntland and the northeast, leveraging extortion, smuggling, and foreign funding. The Somali government, backed by regional forces and U.S. military support, is racing against time to prevent ISIS from becoming an even greater threat.
The capture of Laahoor represents a significant victory for Puntland security forces. However, whether this momentum can be sustained—and whether Somalia can prevent an ISIS resurgence—remains the ultimate test. The war is far from over, but the tides may be turning against ISIS in Somalia.
Analysis
Somaliland’s Fire Crisis: Leadership, Recovery, and Repeated Failures

Somaliland’s markets are burning—and with them, the livelihoods of thousands. The Gobonnimo Market fire is just the latest in a series of catastrophic blazes that have devastated Hargeisa’s commercial hubs. Waaheen Market (2022), Wajaale Market (2023), and now Gobonnimo Market (2025)—all tell the same story of poor infrastructure, inadequate fire response, and a lack of preventive measures.
President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Cirro, alongside senior government officials, visited the scene, expressing sorrow and pledging government support. His call for national unity and fundraising reflects Somaliland’s resilience, yet the larger question remains unanswered—why do these fires keep happening?
The Waaheen Market inferno of 2022—the worst in decades—took 16 hours to control, destroying 2,000 shops, 100 buildings, and displacing countless families. In 2023, the Wajaale Market fire caused losses worth $5.3 million, once again proving Somaliland’s economic hubs are high-risk zones without adequate fire protection.
The repeated devastation has sparked public frustration, with demands for transparent investigations into causes, accountability, and prevention. The formation of a technical committee to assess damages is a delayed reaction, not a preventive solution. Somaliland’s economy relies on trade, yet its commercial centers remain vulnerable to fires that could be avoided with better urban planning and safety protocols.
Without modernized fire safety regulations, clear urban zoning, and rapid response infrastructure, Somaliland will continue to relive this nightmare—again and again. The government’s next step must not be just compensation and damage control; it must be prevention.
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